Our really weird WHIP/ERA splits

[DavidGee24]

Generally, when you have a WHIP down well below 1.000 you have an ERA down around 2.00, yet:

2025 Logan Gilbert 0.893 WHIP, 3.12 ERA
2025 Bryan Woo 0.955 WHIP, 3.12 ERA
2024 Logan Gilbert 0.887 WHIP (led league), 3.23 ERA
2024 Bryce Miller 0.976 WHIP, 2.94 ERA
2024 Bryan Woo 0.898 WHIP, 2.89 ERA

I looked up the top ten WHIPs in baseball in 2025 thus far and only Joe Ryan has an ERA that's comparable. Everyone else is down close to two or even under two. It's just crazy that we have three pitchers who are like that, who dominate yet always seem at some point to give up the big hits. It's a head-scratcher.

[Captain 97]

I don't think its as far out of the ordinary as you think. Rodons WHIP and ERA numbers are almost identical to WOO. Look at James Taillon. WHIP of 1.04 (13th in MLB) ERA of 3.84 (45th in MLB)

M's Staff is 18th in WHIP and 18th in ERA so hard to say there is something systemic.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Part of it (i would guess) is that the percentange of hits allowed that are HRs is higher than the norm for those starters.

Woo: 1 HR per 7.3 IP (1.23 per 9)
Gilbert: 1 HR per 5.7 IP (1.57 per 9)

[DavidGee24]

I don't think its as far out of the ordinary as you think. Rodons WHIP and ERA numbers are almost identical to WOO. Look at James Taillon. WHIP of 1.04 (13th in MLB) ERA of 3.84 (45th in MLB)

M's Staff is 18th in WHIP and 18th in ERA so hard to say there is something systemic.

Gilbert's case is the most extreme in MLB history. In 2024 he had the 52nd-best single-season WHIP of all time and the 22nd-best in the expansion era (1961-forward). The ten guys ahead of him in the expansion era had ERAs ranging from 1.60 - 2.46 and the ten guys behind him in the expansion era had ERAs ranging from 1.56 - 2.60. Not even close to his 3.23.

And Gilbert's on a very similar pace in 2025, which is why he's only a 3-WAR pitcher instead of a truly elite one. He has to find a way to stop giving up so many home runs.

[Bil522]

I don't think its as far out of the ordinary as you think. Rodons WHIP and ERA numbers are almost identical to WOO. Look at James Taillon. WHIP of 1.04 (13th in MLB) ERA of 3.84 (45th in MLB)

M's Staff is 18th in WHIP and 18th in ERA so hard to say there is something systemic.

Gilbert's case is the most extreme in MLB history. In 2024 he had the 52nd-best single-season best WHIP of all time and the 22nd-best in the expansion era (1961-forward). The ten guys ahead of him in the expansion era had ERAs ranging from 1.60 - 2.46 and the ten guys behind him in the expansion era had ERAs ranging from 1.56 - 2.60. Not even close to his 3.23.

And Gilbert's on a very similar pace in 2025, which is why he's only a 3-WAR pitcher instead of a truly elite one. He has to find a way to stop giving up so many home runs.

Gilbert missing 6-7 starts has left him with only 40innings pitched in 8 starts, so I don't think it is a big enough sample size yet. Roughly, I want my pitchers to get a minimum of .1 WAR/start. For reference, in Felix's Cy Young year, he got a little over .2/start.

[DavidGee24]

I don't think its as far out of the ordinary as you think. Rodons WHIP and ERA numbers are almost identical to WOO. Look at James Taillon. WHIP of 1.04 (13th in MLB) ERA of 3.84 (45th in MLB)

M's Staff is 18th in WHIP and 18th in ERA so hard to say there is something systemic.

Gilbert's case is the most extreme in MLB history. In 2024 he had the 52nd-best single-season best WHIP of all time and the 22nd-best in the expansion era (1961-forward). The ten guys ahead of him in the expansion era had ERAs ranging from 1.60 - 2.46 and the ten guys behind him in the expansion era had ERAs ranging from 1.56 - 2.60. Not even close to his 3.23.

And Gilbert's on a very similar pace in 2025, which is why he's only a 3-WAR pitcher instead of a truly elite one. He has to find a way to stop giving up so many home runs.

Gilbert missing 6-7 starts has left him with only 40innings pitched in 8 starts, so I don't think it is a big enough sample size yet. Roughly, I want my pitchers to get a minimum of .1 WAR/start. For reference, in Felix's Cy Young year, he got a little over .2/start.

Combined with last season, and if you look at his overall career numbers, it's a big enough sample size. He's just someone who will be mowing the other team down and then suddenly give up a two-run bomb. He's just like that. He should be a 6-7 WAR pitcher and instead he's a 3.

[Donn Beach]

Gilbert has been a control over command type pitcher, he has the ability to consistently put the ball in the strike zone, but not the consistent command to not to put it over the plate.

[DavidGee24]

Gilbert has been a control over command type pitcher, he has the ability to consistently put the ball in the strike zone, but not the consistent command to not to put it over the plate.

Good analysis. We've talked in this forum in the past about Kirby being that way, but Gilbert is even more that type of pitcher.

[Donn Beach]

Gilbert has been a control over command type pitcher, he has the ability to consistently put the ball in the strike zone, but not the consistent command to not to put it over the plate.

Good analysis. We've talked in this forum in the past about Kirby being that way, but Gilbert is even more that type of pitcher.

Well you make interesting observations, I parrot. Seems his fastball has a tendency to end up in the zone. This from before the season, wonder if the issue has become more pronounced

So, despite his pitch having marginally above-average shape, it was completely nullified by his steeper VAA giving the pitch more of a sinking effect than a rising effect, essentially leaving the fastball in the dead zone despite everything suggesting it wasn’t a dead zone fastball.

On top of that, Gilbert is much more control over command when it comes to his fastball, throwing the pitch in the zone a lot the last couple years, but leaving the pitch in the middle of the plate more often than you’d like. He still makes an effort to throw it at the top of the zone, and the whiff rates aren’t terrible, either, despite the changes. As for why Gilbert’s VAA has shifted so notably the last three years, I couldn’t tell you. I’m not even sure Gilbert could tell you. This is more likely something he’s completely unaware of than something he’s making an active effort to change. With that in mind, it’s possible that this regression in the fastball is a good thing, since all of his pitches tunneled off the pitch more than they had either of the past two years, and maybe they just tunnel better off this current fastball.

That being said, given how the pitch has been plus or better the last couple of years, and he still throws strikes, throws it hard, and still has the shape and extension, I’m comfortable slapping a 55 grade on it with upside. I’ll be interested to see whether this VAA is something Gilbert tries to correct, even though I mostly doubt we see a change there.

This is quite the indepth look at him if anyone is interested
https://medium.com/@oliver.mitsuo/scout ... 49db60fc9f