Offseason Plan Cause...Why Not?

[D-train]

McKinstry would be a good option but his trade value is $17M and Robles is now negative. If they wanted prospects instead you could trade Felnin for him.

[Big_Maple]

The rotation was solid but only 13th ERA and 14th in WAR. Mid pack. Hopefully it bounces back as guys are healthy all season. Who are you trading Castillo for???

Sorry - my mind was a meandering shitshow yesterday. The first half of my post was just some general thoughts about the state of the roster and what the M's could or could not do. Trading Castillo is something that has been discussed here and by the pundits, but I don't think it will happen. Castillo is a solid pitcher, but he's starting to age and decline, he's expensive, and there are lots of FA arms out there that teams would covet - relative to the cost - than Castillo. I don't think he is untradeable, but Jerry is likely to want too much in return and/or won't want to break up the band by getting rid of him.

In the same way, I don't think we are going after Skubal. We'd give up a ton of talent for one year, and he's not going to sign an extension. His agent is Boras, and he's never going to tell a client to trade in their last year of arb and sign an extension, especially when it's the best player in baseball. So I didn't mention him in my offseason musings.

Also, We are stuck with Raley. He's not awful - he's just not sexy trade bait. No team would want our flotsam, even if he was packaged in with someone else.

Finally, if we DO get rid of a starting pitcher, I think it will be Miller. He's middle of the pack. He'll give you a lot of innings. He had a rough season last year, but I think he is better than his 2025 stats would suggest. Someone could see the potential in him as young, talented and controllable, and offer something decent in return. And the reason I think Jerry would part with Miller is because he has a potentially problematic elbow. He's a risk. He avoided surgery this offseason, but he's got a bone spur (which doesn't go away) and episodic inflammation. At any time he could go down for the rest of the season (after which point he has zero value), so I think Jerry would be inclined to cash in while he's "healthy" and can net something in return.

[Big_Maple]

McKinstry would be a good option but his trade value is $17M and Robles is now negative. If they wanted prospects instead you could trade Felnin for him.

Thanks. I do not have access to the trade calculator - so I don't know what the respective values were.

[D-train]

The rotation was solid but only 13th ERA and 14th in WAR. Mid pack. Hopefully it bounces back as guys are healthy all season. Who are you trading Castillo for???

Sorry - my mind was a meandering shitshow yesterday. The first half of my post was just some general thoughts about the state of the roster and what the M's could or could not do. Trading Castillo is something that has been discussed here and by the pundits, but I don't think it will happen. Castillo is a solid pitcher, but he's starting to age and decline, he's expensive, and there are lots of FA arms out there that teams would covet - relative to the cost - than Castillo. I don't think he is untradeable, but Jerry is likely to want too much in return and/or won't want to break up the band by getting rid of him.

In the same way, I don't think we are going after Skubal. We'd give up a ton of talent for one year, and he's not going to sign an extension. His agent is Boras, and he's never going to tell a client to trade in their last year of arb and sign an extension, especially when it's the best player in baseball. So I didn't mention him in my offseason musings.

Also, We are stuck with Raley. He's not awful - he's just not sexy trade bait. No team would want our flotsam, even if he was packaged in with someone else.

Finally, if we DO get rid of a starting pitcher, I think it will be Miller. He's middle of the pack. He'll give you a lot of innings. He had a rough season last year, but I think he is better than his 2025 stats would suggest. Someone could see the potential in him as young, talented and controllable, and offer something decent in return. And the reason I think Jerry would part with Miller is because he has a potentially problematic elbow. He's a risk. He avoided surgery this offseason, but he's got a bone spur (which doesn't go away) and episodic inflammation. At any time he could go down for the rest of the season (after which point he has zero value), so I think Jerry would be inclined to cash in while he's "healthy" and can net something in return.

Also possible that you could be selling low on Miller if he stays healthy and repeats his 2024 performance. Raley isn't worth a lot per the sight but at least he is positive at $5M v. Robles.

[D-train]

McKinstry would be a good option but his trade value is $17M and Robles is now negative. If they wanted prospects instead you could trade Felnin for him.

Thanks. I do not have access to the trade calculator - so I don't know what the respective values were.

It is FAR from perfect and definitely has some head scratcher values but is a good sanity check because they are objective and thoroughly explain their methodologies.

[Big_Maple]

Also possible that you could be selling low on Miller if he stays healthy and repeats his 2024 performance. Raley isn't worth a lot per the sight but at least he is positive at $5M v. Robles.

Could not agree more!! This is why we always look back to decide who wins a trade. Do the best you can with the data in hand, and hope for the best.

[GL_Storm]

They aren't "stuck" with Raley. I wouldn't expect a massive return for him, but there's always a market for guys like that. And coming off an injury year, his Arb1 number won't be anything teams can't deal with.

It would be a different calculation if he was Arb2 or Arb3. In that case he would be more of a non-tender candidate.

[Captain 97]

I am kind of rethinking Naylor a bit. He's going to be pricey I think Trading for Diaz might be a better use of funds.

Diaz and Naylor had pretty close numbers but Naylor had 27 more SB's and the plus side is we've already seen him in Seattle, he's already been in the locker room and we know he can hit in Seattle.

Naylor was 0.8 WAR in Arizona and 2.2 WAR in only 54 games in Seattle

I'd rather go for the 1B we know than the 1B we think we know.

Do we really know him based on 54 Games?
54 Games with Seattle 2.2 WAR. The previous 691 games in his career he had 6.2 WAR combined. Seems like a pretty big gamble to give a guy like that a big deal based on a third of a season.

[Pharmabro]

McKinstry would be a good option but his trade value is $17M and Robles is now negative. If they wanted prospects instead you could trade Felnin for him.

Thanks. I do not have access to the trade calculator - so I don't know what the respective values were.

Yes you do got to mlbtradecalculator

1st page look at top and hit trade boards

Scroll down to search teams or players