The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

[Seattle or Bust]

FWIW Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each position player, projects Cole Young with a 2026 WAR of 2.4 and Ben Williamson with a 2026 WAR of 1.9:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?t ... =dashboard

I can't imagine another projection that would discredit Steamer more than projecting a guy that had a .607 OPS and was the 2nd worst 2B in Baseball projecting to 2.4 WAR

From a Monday column by Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon at The Athletic:

It’s not just the Mariners who like Young, either. One rival executive describes Young as “the league model darling right now,” pointing out that analytically based projection systems value him more highly than scouts do.

Young, whom the Mariners selected 21st overall out of North Allegheny (Pa.) H.S. in 2022, was not especially impressive in his major-league debut, batting only .211 with a .607 OPS in 257 plate appearances. But he’s still only 22, and the Mariners plan to give him significant playing time next season. Any second baseman they acquire would be a complement, not a replacement.

Teams place great value on young, left-handed hitting middle infielders who control the strike zone. Young projects to hit right-handers well, and the models also like his defense. So, if the Mariners acquire Donovan, who also bats left-handed, he likely would get the majority of his playing time at positions other than second base.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/691253 ... mlb-notes/

Subscription required.

"Who control the strike zone" is an interesting blip.

Not saying he won't and I'll certainly give grace to a rookie... but for a guy like him to be valuable... he's basically got to K:BB at a 1:1 clip like he did in the minors. He struck out at nearly double the rate in MLB vs the minors.

And that doesn't even mention that he was bottom 30% in basically every statistic contacting the baseball.

[D-train]

I didn’t really think of this until after Wilson Contreras was traded. But one of our popular trade candidates is Brendan Donovan. Another poster brought up a bullpen stud in Rielly O’Brien and I think DT introduced catcher DH Yvonne Herrera as a candidate but what if we just rearrange that for Donovan, Contreras and O’Brien plus the cards pan down Willson Contreras‘s pay by say I don’t know $20 million in the Mariners not trading their to 3 but sending like 5 top 100$

What are you even talking about?

[D-train]

Rob Refsnyder has been a good part time bat the past to seasons would be a cheap RH bat for DH and RF.

Screenshot 2025-12-16 075334.png

Sign Rob Refsnyder 1 year, $2.5MM (hold down the fort till Farmelo and/or Montes make it. He had a great year in Boston – doesn’t want to retire yet. With gas in the tank he is likely just looking for a 1 year deal)

Rob Refsnyder, OF - The veteran has enjoyed a 2-year production boom and will be a free agent following the season. He's currently hitting .302/.371/.585/.986 with 4 homers in 21 games. He is crushing lefties with a 1.014 OPS and would be a nice platoon/bench bat.

Suggestions that came true. Signs for $6.25m

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/ ... nyder.html

I appreciate the shout Mike.

To be fair, I suggested the M's acquire him at the deadline last year to play some outfield and hit lefties down the stretch of a pennant run given the Robles injury.

This acquisition doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me as it sits. Are they gonna trade an outfielder?

We've tried this before where we've put an older player on the bench and hoped he'd mash... instead they just end up taking a roster spot, struggle with sporadic playing time, and are DFA'd by July.

We somehow were able to trade Pollock for nothing...which was more than he was worth.

[D-train]

Suggestions that came true. Signs for $6.25m

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/ ... nyder.html

I appreciate the shout Mike.

To be fair, I suggested the M's acquire him at the deadline last year to play some outfield and hit lefties down the stretch of a pennant run given the Robles injury.

This acquisition doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me as it sits. Are they gonna trade an outfielder?

We've tried this before where we've put an older player on the bench and hoped he'd mash... instead they just end up taking a roster spot, struggle with sporadic playing time, and are DFA'd by July.

Possibly but Refsnyder is used to sporadic playing time only playing against lefties or PH.

That's a great point. Pollock played every day with the White Sox and just happened to hit lefties well in 2022.

[D-train]

FWIW Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each position player, projects Cole Young with a 2026 WAR of 2.4 and Ben Williamson with a 2026 WAR of 1.9:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?t ... =dashboard

I can't imagine another projection that would discredit Steamer more than projecting a guy that had a .607 OPS and was the 2nd worst 2B in Baseball projecting to 2.4 WAR

From a Monday column by Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon at The Athletic:

It’s not just the Mariners who like Young, either. One rival executive describes Young as “the league model darling right now,” pointing out that analytically based projection systems value him more highly than scouts do.

Young, whom the Mariners selected 21st overall out of North Allegheny (Pa.) H.S. in 2022, was not especially impressive in his major-league debut, batting only .211 with a .607 OPS in 257 plate appearances. But he’s still only 22, and the Mariners plan to give him significant playing time next season. Any second baseman they acquire would be a complement, not a replacement.

Teams place great value on young, left-handed hitting middle infielders who control the strike zone. Young projects to hit right-handers well, and the models also like his defense. So, if the Mariners acquire Donovan, who also bats left-handed, he likely would get the majority of his playing time at positions other than second base.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/691253 ... mlb-notes/

Subscription required.

If you take away Cole's diabolical bookend slumps he had a 50 game stretch when he hit .768 so the talent is there hitting wise. I am most worried about his defense which I am not sure is fixable....

[D-train]

sodo mojo pushes back on the Cole Young fairy tale.

https://sodomojo.com/latest-cole-young- ... ifications

[Captain 97]

A Couple of 21 year olds that made their Debut with the M's.

[desbcoach]

I can't imagine another projection that would discredit Steamer more than projecting a guy that had a .607 OPS and was the 2nd worst 2B in Baseball projecting to 2.4 WAR

From a Monday column by Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon at The Athletic:

It’s not just the Mariners who like Young, either. One rival executive describes Young as “the league model darling right now,” pointing out that analytically based projection systems value him more highly than scouts do.

Young, whom the Mariners selected 21st overall out of North Allegheny (Pa.) H.S. in 2022, was not especially impressive in his major-league debut, batting only .211 with a .607 OPS in 257 plate appearances. But he’s still only 22, and the Mariners plan to give him significant playing time next season. Any second baseman they acquire would be a complement, not a replacement.

Teams place great value on young, left-handed hitting middle infielders who control the strike zone. Young projects to hit right-handers well, and the models also like his defense. So, if the Mariners acquire Donovan, who also bats left-handed, he likely would get the majority of his playing time at positions other than second base.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/691253 ... mlb-notes/

Subscription required.

If you take away Cole's diabolical bookend slumps he had a 50 game stretch when he hit .768 so the talent is there hitting wise. I am most worried about his defense which I am not sure is fixable....

I have no ossue giving young or Williamson a shot , I am confident if one or both are not pulling weight required then
There will be upgrades at trade deadline line. Boston gave a bunch of rookies a shot last year and so,did many others. We know M’s aren’t going to be top dollars spenders much to our chagrine. So we need some cheap guys to come thru

[harmony]

Compare Dustin Pedroia's age 22 season with Cole Young's age 21 season:

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/TEdEi

It's a longshot that Young will have a Pedroia career but anything is possible.

[D-train]

Only 98 PA sample for Pedroia. Jose Ramirez age 21 season wasn't much better with similar PAs as Cole:

Screenshot 2025-12-23 143146.png (13.69 KiB) Viewed 188 times