My trade deadline plan 1.0

[Seattle or Bust]

Mariners trade OF Brock Rodden, RHP Charlie Beilenson, OF Victor Robles to the Reds for OF/3B Spencer Steer

Steer is hitting .327/.427/.618/1.044 vs left handed pitching but has been worth 0.0 bWAR. So the answer is simple, do not play him every day. Do not let him hit against righties. He is to only start vs left handed pitching and he replaces the DFA'd Refsnyder making him a nice platoon with Raley. The Reds have fallen well out of contention and could look to revamp by trading off some fringe, rental pieces. They have the worst bullpen in baseball and Beilenson presents a player who could slot into their pen as soon as '27. Rodden replaces what Steer provides with a bit less pop, but a better glove, and years of control. Robles is a cheap throw in that gives the Reds outfield depth to finish the year. Steer is controlled (not so cheaply) for the next 2 seasons.

Mariners trade RHP Luis Castillo, 2B Michael Arroyo, RHP Griffin Hugus to the Rockies for RHP Antonio Senzatela, RHP Jimmy Herget

The Rockies have the worst starting staff in baseball with 2x regular starters with ERA's near 7.00, another at 5.50, and their best? Mid 4.0's... are they going to contend in '27? No. But the Rockies GM came out and recently said that they will make a serious effort to revamp their pitching and minor league pitching in the years to come. Castillo pitched to a 3.38 ERA in June and has a 3.00 ERA in July. He's the worst M's starter but could be a quality pitcher for a team like the Rockies desperate for rotation help if he's found his form. The M's offload 2x top-10 organizational prospects that fit the Rockies needs. Arroyo could start for them at 2B in '27 where current 2B Eduard Julien has been worth -0.8 bWAR. Hugus, the M's '25 3rd round pick, could be compelling to help the Rockies fulfill their stated goals. The M's raid Colorado for some bullpen help. Senzatela has found new form as a high leverage reliever, posting a solid 1.5 bWAR and 3.07 ERA (pitching at Coors mind you) while the underlying metrics are only OK. Offloading Castillo isn't going to land you a whale, but we'll take a dolphin. He will be owed around $4M for the remainder of '26 and has a $14M club option in '27 that I doubt will be exercized. Herget was one of the better relievers in baseball in '25 pitching to a 2.48 ERA. He got rocked in May and landed on the IL with a shoulder impingement. But in 17 innings in April/June he has an ERA below 2.00. He's 32 and has one more year of control before free agency.

Mariners DFA Rob Refsnyder (and all the other scrubs currently on the roster due to injuries)

Lineup:

1. Brendan Donovan 3B/OF
2. Julio Rodriguez CF
3. Dom Canzone DH
4. Randy Arozarena LF
5. Cal Raleigh C
6. Josh Naylor 1B
7. Luke Raley RF
8. Cole Young 2B
9. Colt Emerson SS

Bench: Util: JP Crawford, 3B/OF Spencer Steer, C Mitch Garver

Rotation:

1. Bryce Miller
2. Logan Gilbert
3. George Kirby
4. Bryan Woo
5. Emerson Hancock

Bullpen:

CL: Andres Munoz
HL: Matt Brash, Jose Ferrer, Gabe Spier, Eduard Bazardo, Antonio Senzatela
ML/LL: Nick Davila, Jimmy Herget

[AT Fresno]

I like the previous plan, but I believe the Reds consider Steer a core piece and will need to be over compensated. I feel the same way for a leverage arm, but I want Luke Weaver, more familiar with him.

I think Castillo needs to go, I want to send him back home to Cincinnati but it's complicated.....
Trade number one:
Mariners send: Luis Castillo + $8-12M+ cash (to cover a big chunk of his remaining 2026 salary, possibly some of 2027 too).
Reds send: Spencer Steer (+ maybe 1 lower-tier prospect from Cincinnati's system to balance).
Alternative to sweeten for the Reds (if they demand more for Steer):Mariners send: Castillo + cash (as above) + a mid-tier Mariners prospect.
Reds send: Spencer Steer.
Trade number two:
Mariners send: Mariners send: Michael Arroyo (INF, one of Seattle's Top 5-10 prospects with athleticism, bat upside, and multi-position value) + a secondary piece like Jonny Farmelo (OF, high-ceiling tools) or a lower-level pitching depth prospect (e.g., a solid but not elite arm from the upper minors) + cash if needed to balance salaries.
Mets send: Luke Weaver.
These trades all sting--I love Arroyo, I like Farmelo, but they aren't untouchable and we can't offer junk.
Who is untouchable for me? Cade Anderson, Ryan Sloan, Felen Celestin, Luke Stevenson, and sort of Laz Montes.
Point is we have a chance to get in, we have to many cookies in the cookie jar and we can't get our hands out with out letting go of some of them. I want to make the world series now.

[GL_Storm]

I think Castillo needs to go, I want to send him back home to Cincinnati but it's complicated.....
Trade number one:
Mariners send: Luis Castillo + $8-12M+ cash (to cover a big chunk of his remaining 2026 salary, possibly some of 2027 too).
Reds send: Spencer Steer (+ maybe 1 lower-tier prospect from Cincinnati's system to balance).
Alternative to sweeten for the Reds (if they demand more for Steer):Mariners send: Castillo + cash (as above) + a mid-tier Mariners prospect.
Reds send: Spencer Steer.
Trade number two:
Mariners send: Mariners send: Michael Arroyo (INF, one of Seattle's Top 5-10 prospects with athleticism, bat upside, and multi-position value) + a secondary piece like Jonny Farmelo (OF, high-ceiling tools) or a lower-level pitching depth prospect (e.g., a solid but not elite arm from the upper minors) + cash if needed to balance salaries.
Mets send: Luke Weaver.
These trades all sting--I love Arroyo, I like Farmelo, but we can't offer junk

I like the idea of targeting Luke Weaver but that looks like a pretty significant overpay.

[AT Fresno]

I think Castillo needs to go, I want to send him back home to Cincinnati but it's complicated.....
Trade number one:
Mariners send: Luis Castillo + $8-12M+ cash (to cover a big chunk of his remaining 2026 salary, possibly some of 2027 too).
Reds send: Spencer Steer (+ maybe 1 lower-tier prospect from Cincinnati's system to balance).
Alternative to sweeten for the Reds (if they demand more for Steer):Mariners send: Castillo + cash (as above) + a mid-tier Mariners prospect.
Reds send: Spencer Steer.
Trade number two:
Mariners send: Mariners send: Michael Arroyo (INF, one of Seattle's Top 5-10 prospects with athleticism, bat upside, and multi-position value) + a secondary piece like Jonny Farmelo (OF, high-ceiling tools) or a lower-level pitching depth prospect (e.g., a solid but not elite arm from the upper minors) + cash if needed to balance salaries.
Mets send: Luke Weaver.
These trades all sting--I love Arroyo, I like Farmelo, but we can't offer junk

I like the idea of targeting Luke Weaver but that looks like a pretty significant overpay.

You are correct but I knew both were overpays and honestly, overpays are necessary because our needs are very precise. We either do it or we don't, but we are not going to make the show by fleecing someone, or getting greater value. For example the Reds love Steer, they would have no problem asking for Cade Anderson or Ryan Sloan...

[GL_Storm]

I think Castillo needs to go, I want to send him back home to Cincinnati but it's complicated.....
Trade number one:
Mariners send: Luis Castillo + $8-12M+ cash (to cover a big chunk of his remaining 2026 salary, possibly some of 2027 too).
Reds send: Spencer Steer (+ maybe 1 lower-tier prospect from Cincinnati's system to balance).
Alternative to sweeten for the Reds (if they demand more for Steer):Mariners send: Castillo + cash (as above) + a mid-tier Mariners prospect.
Reds send: Spencer Steer.
Trade number two:
Mariners send: Mariners send: Michael Arroyo (INF, one of Seattle's Top 5-10 prospects with athleticism, bat upside, and multi-position value) + a secondary piece like Jonny Farmelo (OF, high-ceiling tools) or a lower-level pitching depth prospect (e.g., a solid but not elite arm from the upper minors) + cash if needed to balance salaries.
Mets send: Luke Weaver.
These trades all sting--I love Arroyo, I like Farmelo, but we can't offer junk

I like the idea of targeting Luke Weaver but that looks like a pretty significant overpay.

You are correct but I knew both were overpays and honestly, overpays are necessary because our needs are very precise. We either do it or we don't, but we are not going to make the show by fleecing someone, or getting greater value. For example the Reds love Steer, they would have no problem asking for Cade Anderson or Ryan Sloan...

You just don't see the Luke Weaver types of the world get that kind of return. He's a decent enough pitcher, but also not really an impact guy. He'll be a better option than Michael Rucker.

Honestly, I think there's a decent chance they don't do anything at the deadline. It's a .500 team basically with Cal having a down season. Maybe if Cal turns it around and Julio starts his second half surge.

[Seattle or Bust]

I like the previous plan, but I believe the Reds consider Steer a core piece and will need to be over compensated. I feel the same way for a leverage arm, but I want Luke Weaver, more familiar with him.

I think Castillo needs to go, I want to send him back home to Cincinnati but it's complicated.....
Trade number one:
Mariners send: Luis Castillo + $8-12M+ cash (to cover a big chunk of his remaining 2026 salary, possibly some of 2027 too).
Reds send: Spencer Steer (+ maybe 1 lower-tier prospect from Cincinnati's system to balance).
Alternative to sweeten for the Reds (if they demand more for Steer):Mariners send: Castillo + cash (as above) + a mid-tier Mariners prospect.
Reds send: Spencer Steer.
Trade number two:
Mariners send: Mariners send: Michael Arroyo (INF, one of Seattle's Top 5-10 prospects with athleticism, bat upside, and multi-position value) + a secondary piece like Jonny Farmelo (OF, high-ceiling tools) or a lower-level pitching depth prospect (e.g., a solid but not elite arm from the upper minors) + cash if needed to balance salaries.
Mets send: Luke Weaver.
These trades all sting--I love Arroyo, I like Farmelo, but they aren't untouchable and we can't offer junk.
Who is untouchable for me? Cade Anderson, Ryan Sloan, Felen Celestin, Luke Stevenson, and sort of Laz Montes.
Point is we have a chance to get in, we have to many cookies in the cookie jar and we can't get our hands out with out letting go of some of them. I want to make the world series now.

Thank you for your thoughts.

Evaluating Steer market is interesting. He hasn't posted more than 1.5 WAR since 2023... just 0.7 in '25 and 0.0 this year. They put him out there every day when he's a negative WAR player vs right handed pitching. He's also being paid $4M and has 2 more years of arb left meaning a team who acquires him is likely paying him $6ish then $8ish million. That's a lot of cash to pay a guy who really should only be hitting vs lefties and playing the field sparingly. BTV has him worth about $8M in trade value... perhaps the Reds do value him more than that. Beilenson and Rodden are both 20-30 rated prospects in a talented M's farm... Steer is no Arozarena and Randy went for 2x guys ranked about 15-20 with similar years of control. Maybe it takes more, not really sure.

I like Luke Weaver but I don't think the M's want to be on the hook for him at $12M in '27.

I really like Weaver's stuff.

I wonder if they can push it to 97-98 in an effort to become a reliever.

If only the M's would listen to me.

I digress...

I think the M's will be looking for what they usually look for in relievers... guys they're on the hook financially for just 2 months or young relievers with lots of cheap control. Prime examples: Caleb Ferguson, Yimi Garcia, Ken Giles... Senzatela would fit that billing as they could decline his option for '27. Herget is controlled through next year, but will likely only see like $3M.