What's your take on Julio

[D-train]

Okay, using the 2,000 PA's sample size, he's hit .273/333/ .462/.795

The problem is he started out great, then had a good year, then a meh year and now a bad year. If it was the opposite everyone would be THRILLED. But he has declined EVERY single season. Is this the Nadir and he goes up from here or continues to decline?? It's like he was a rookie at age 29 and now he is 32. He is on a classic age related decline only he is only 24 yo! Can't make it up.

[Donn Beach]

Sure, so we are back to deciding if he sucks or not, looking at the production of his first 2000 PA he isn't so bad. He is known for getting off to poor starts and it does seem to be getting more difficult generally. The average OPS was .750 not too long ago wasn't it?

[Michael K.]

I think the problem is they let these players act like idiots throwing up X's at the fans after every mediocre catch, they prance around on the field like a bunch of sprites after a win, and roll out the red carpet for a select few of these kids, making them think they're special before they've earned anything.

Lack of discipline. Lack of respect for the game. Whatever you want to call it.

We saw it happen with Taijuan Walker.

All of a sudden the "Fresh Prince" showed up looking too cool for school.

They start to believe they're "stars" because they're treated like one, and then they think it's going to come easy. Or, the lazy ones do at least. They didn't even make Julio work for it to become a $20M/yr player.

And then they called that their investment in the team that offseason after ignoring the free agent market. Lol.

I agree, 1000%. Half the blame is on the organization, but half is on Mr Too Cool for School. He doesn't look like a guy that has any idea how to work on things that he isn't good at, because he doesn't believe there is anything he isn't good at. And that is on him, and the people that have surrounded him his entire life telling him how great he is.

It's just as bad at the HS level. My days of coaching might come to an end, and it will mostly be because I can no longer handle today's athletes. ZERO accountability. It's always someone else's fault.

I'm not going to lie and say I am watching the Mariners, I can't stand to watch baseball. The strike out or HR philosophy grosses me out. But? I don't even think this kid is an All Star. He is an average MLB player that is grossly over paid. Something the Mariners are great at.

[Donn Beach]

Early scouting report, he's comped to nelson Cruz which I find interesting. It took Cruz awhile to figure things out, and you know who he credits helping him do it, Scot Servais

Baseball America: “Julio has a similar trajectory to Nelson Cruz. Cruz was never a top 100 guy though, and Julio may have a bigger immediate hit and power ceiling than Cruz did, but they profile similarly. Cruz almost grew into what I believe Julio will be at a much younger age. Big bats, big bodies, big arms in right field. Julio projects as a better defender than Cruz was at this stage too. He’ll be a top 15 guy next year, maybe top three. He’s that good

[Michael K.]

Early scouting report, he's comped to nelson Cruz which I find interesting. It took Cruz awhile to figure things out, and you know who he credits helping him do it, Scot Servais

Baseball America: “Julio has a similar trajectory to Nelson Cruz. Cruz was never a top 100 guy though, and Julio may have a bigger immediate hit and power ceiling than Cruz did, but they profile similarly. Cruz almost grew into what I believe Julio will be at a much younger age. Big bats, big bodies, big arms in right field. Julio projects as a better defender than Cruz was at this stage too. He’ll be a top 15 guy next year, maybe top three. He’s that good

He's not top three on this team.

[Captain 97]

His ceiling is Trout/ Ohtani level moon orbit. The floor I think is last year where he’s hurt but still had a decent average didn’t have power. He didn’t steal as much or it could be this year where sure there’s some power there and he’s stealing some bags and he’s walking, but he doesn’t put the ball in play enough

His ceiling is not Mike Trout. Not even close. Mike Trout entering his age 24 season had already accumulated 37.1 WAR and had an MVP + 3 second place finishes for MVP.

[Captain 97]

Okay, using the 2,000 PA's sample size, he's hit .273/333/ .462/.795

The problem is he started out great, then had a good year, then a meh year and now a bad year. If it was the opposite everyone would be THRILLED. But he has declined EVERY single season. Is this the Nadir and he goes up from here or continues to decline?? It's like he was a rookie at age 29 and now he is 32. He is on a classic age related decline only he is only 24 yo! Can't make it up.

A little early to say this season is worse than last year. He had a .667 OPS through 23 games last year. in 2023 it was .728 through 23 games. He is at .685 right now. Still plenty of time for him to put up a decent or even great season.

To answer the original question I think his career is going to be that of a good player but not a great player. He will retire with a War in the high 30's to low 40's an OPS in the mid to high 700's and 300-350 HR. Basically I think he will be Jason Heyward.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... ja01.shtml

[Captain 97]

So far he's generated $132 million in value and been paid $40+ in salary. The team has an escape clause in 2030 so it's not like Julio has nothing left to play for

That's great except for the fact that if they hadn't voluntarily gave him a new contract they would have only paid him about 5 Million so far and may have been able to use that money to go out get an actual middle of the order bat.

[GL_Storm]

Do you guys use Baseball Savant much? There are a number of metrics that describe quality of contact, and for Julio these numbers are all somewhere between bad and terrible. At a basic level, he tops the ball and drives it into the ground, and he's always done this. That is absolutely, one hundred percent a swing issue.

[bpj]

So far he's generated $132 million in value and been paid $40+ in salary. The team has an escape clause in 2030 so it's not like Julio has nothing left to play for

That's great except for the fact that if they hadn't voluntarily gave him a new contract they would have only paid him about 5 Million so far and may have been able to use that money to go out get an actual middle of the order bat.

Agreed, this is a big part of the problem. It wouldn't be so bad if they didn't cap the budget at what they were paying 10 years ago. Makes no sense to just start paying your young players 20M to lock them up and then ignoring the current roster acting like you just improved your team.

But you can't just pay your kid like a star just to get him to sign long term, and then turn around and forego actually adding the star player you need now. It completely defeats the purpose of why these 1-6 year players are cheap to begin with (so you can spend your budget to fill holes).

Remember the BS they tried to convince the fans of??
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