Another trade deadline plan.

DavidGee24
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Re: Another trade deadline plan.

Post by DavidGee24 » Mon Jun 23, 2025 7:23 pm

AZOldDawg wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 5:49 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 5:41 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 3:04 pm
A top 100 prospect for a rental... yeah, let's have some trade proposals with a little pain involved. The suggestions here tend to be pain free. Unless there's some pain I don't find them very interesting
Who is a top 100 prospect that I listed? None of these prospects are in the Mariners top 10 let alone 100.
I think he was responding to my Ford for O'Hearn deal. I just am afraid our window for winning isn't real large and we would have a decent shot to resign him.
DB is like that, he doesn't quote people because he's passive-aggressive as well as contrarian. Although he does have a point, Ford's potential might be too steep for a guy who might be a flash in the pan at 30.

DavidGee24
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Re: Another trade deadline plan.

Post by DavidGee24 » Mon Jun 23, 2025 7:32 pm

TODAY ON "FAN TRADES THAT THE OTHER TEAM WOULD NEVER DO"...

Trade idea #1 - Legumina and Dominguez are pretty much the same pitcher, and the Orioles would have no desire to take on Garver's salary, not even half of it. The Orioles think about it for a moment, laugh and then hang up the phone.

Trade idea #2 - the D-Backs are still in playoff contention and two seasons ago won the NL pennant as a wild-card team. Izzi totally sucks. The D-Backs think about it for a moment, laugh and then hang up the phone.

Trade idea #3 - the Braves don't even bother to think about it, laugh and then hang up the phone.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Another trade deadline plan.

Post by Seattle or Bust » Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:00 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 6:53 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 5:51 pm

Or are you considering Raley one of our bad hitters? Raley has been a 3+ WAR OF the last 2 years and the Braves are currently rolling with 2x OF’s who are playing at basically replacement level. They control him cheaply for 4 more seasons and the free agent class for 1B’s: Alonso, Naylor, Hoskins, Goldschimdt is pretty good.
Be that as it may, the trade package your proposed wouldn't work (IMHO) for all the reasons I stated. Raley is a slight upgrade over Harris, he's not much better than Ozuna, and Acuna is looking like an All Star right now. They have Kelenic waiting in the wings, but he's too inconsistent to be useful.

I think that trading Olson to upgrade their outfield is a clear case of robbing Peter to pay Paul (more like killing Peter to pay Paul since Olson is orders of magnitude better than Raley).

So yeah, maybe the Braves need to tweak things and look ahead to 2026. Maybe they will be sellers at the deadline. I dunno. But I can't imagine them trading Olson for Raley and a reliever from the back of the junk drawer.
The idea is #1 that the Braves feel they need a reset... you forget that part of the deal would allow them to shed what's left of about $120 million on his contract... much of which is owed as he ages. The trade is seen as an overpay by the M's on MLBTV given that Raley has been a 3 WAR player and is only just entering arbitration.

Their current left fielder is Alex Verdugo with a 70 OPS+ and 0.1 bWAR. Kelenic is hitting .205/.293/.313/.605 in AAA for the Braves.

The trade would allow them to shed payroll, add a quality left fielder which is a clear need, and then give them the flexibility to add a quality 1B in the off season.

DavidGee24
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Re: Another trade deadline plan.

Post by DavidGee24 » Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:13 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:00 pm
The idea is #1 that the Braves feel they need a reset... you forget that part of the deal would allow them to shed what's left of about $120 million on his contract... much of which is owed as he ages. The trade is seen as an overpay by the M's on MLBTV given that Raley has been a 3 WAR player and is only just entering arbitration.

Their current left fielder is Alex Verdugo with a 70 OPS+ and 0.1 bWAR. Kelenic is hitting .205/.293/.313/.605 in AAA for the Braves.

The trade would allow them to shed payroll, add a quality left fielder which is a clear need, and then give them the flexibility to add a quality 1B in the off season.
Here's what you're not thinking of: that other teams in contention will offer the Braves more than someone like Raley. Other teams will offer at a minimum at least one top prospect and a decent player or pitcher for Olsen, don't you think?

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Another trade deadline plan.

Post by Seattle or Bust » Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:15 pm

DavidGee24 wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 7:32 pm
TODAY ON "FAN TRADES THAT THE OTHER TEAM WOULD NEVER DO"...

Trade idea #1 - Legumina and Dominguez are pretty much the same pitcher, and the Orioles would have no desire to take on Garver's salary, not even half of it. The Orioles think about it for a moment, laugh and then hang up the phone.

Trade idea #2 - the D-Backs are still in playoff contention and two seasons ago won the NL pennant as a wild-card team. Izzi totally sucks. The D-Backs think about it for a moment, laugh and then hang up the phone.

Trade idea #3 - the Braves don't even bother to think about it, laugh and then hang up the phone.
On today's episode of the point flying over DavidGee's head... IT'S A SPORTS FORUM WHERE PEOPLE TALK SPORTS AND POSIT IDEAS THAT ENGAGE CONVERSATION ABOUT BASEBALL. Get it now?

It's always the ones who never posit ideas of their own who are the most critical.

1) Garver's second half salary would be like $5 million and they could quite easily take it on if it means getting pitching prospects in return that don't currently exist in their system. They have 0 farm depth, don't want to trade their young MLB talent, and could get creative by taking on someone like Garver if it improves their current, dire pitching situation. Dominguez is a much better pitcher than Legumina... he throws 100 mph.

2) Does this post say anything about the trade happening now? It's a TRADE DEADLINE where the logical conclusion is that this plan assumes the Diamondbacks are out of contention and decide to sell. "Izzi totally sucks" just shows your lack of understanding the nuance of valuation in prospects. But even if you do look at raw stats, apparently you think a 2.85 ERA while pitching in Modesto over 110 innings is bad.

3) The Red Sox just traded Devers for a bag of balls to get out from under his contract. He's 5 years younger than Olson. Atlanta may want to look at freeing up money and getting out of some aging contracts if the team isn't performing.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Another trade deadline plan.

Post by Seattle or Bust » Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:17 pm

DavidGee24 wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:13 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:00 pm
The idea is #1 that the Braves feel they need a reset... you forget that part of the deal would allow them to shed what's left of about $120 million on his contract... much of which is owed as he ages. The trade is seen as an overpay by the M's on MLBTV given that Raley has been a 3 WAR player and is only just entering arbitration.

Their current left fielder is Alex Verdugo with a 70 OPS+ and 0.1 bWAR. Kelenic is hitting .205/.293/.313/.605 in AAA for the Braves.

The trade would allow them to shed payroll, add a quality left fielder which is a clear need, and then give them the flexibility to add a quality 1B in the off season.
Here's what you're not thinking of: that other teams in contention will offer the Braves more than someone like Raley. Other teams will offer at a minimum at least one top prospect and a decent player or pitcher for Olsen, don't you think?
They may indeed. But what you don't seem to understand is that the trade involves an aging player making a lot of money.

Those contracts don't go for a heck of a lot and teams do trades like this to shed cash for payroll flexibility... not to add significant prospect capital in return.

Big_Maple
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Re: Another trade deadline plan.

Post by Big_Maple » Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:23 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:00 pm
The idea is #1 that the Braves feel they need a reset... you forget that part of the deal would allow them to shed what's left of about $120 million on his contract... much of which is owed as he ages. The trade is seen as an overpay by the M's on MLBTV given that Raley has been a 3 WAR player and is only just entering arbitration.

Their current left fielder is Alex Verdugo with a 70 OPS+ and 0.1 bWAR. Kelenic is hitting .205/.293/.313/.605 in AAA for the Braves.

The trade would allow them to shed payroll, add a quality left fielder which is a clear need, and then give them the flexibility to add a quality 1B in the off season.
Hm. This just doesn't seem like a viable trade, to me at least. If, as you suggest, Olson's best years are behind him, then why would the M's take on $22MM/year for 5 more years? There's no way the M's would take on a contract like this.

If the Braves are selling as we head to the trade deadline, I can see them moving Ozuna who might have some value and would be a short term rental for some other team. But I don't think they're in "tear down to studs and rebuild" mode. Olson still seems like a marquee guy to me - and he's already good for 3.1 WAR, 10 games before the trade deadline.

One thing I think we can all agree on: thank Jeebus we don't still have Jarred Kelenic to deal with.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Another trade deadline plan.

Post by Seattle or Bust » Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:30 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:23 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:00 pm
The idea is #1 that the Braves feel they need a reset... you forget that part of the deal would allow them to shed what's left of about $120 million on his contract... much of which is owed as he ages. The trade is seen as an overpay by the M's on MLBTV given that Raley has been a 3 WAR player and is only just entering arbitration.

Their current left fielder is Alex Verdugo with a 70 OPS+ and 0.1 bWAR. Kelenic is hitting .205/.293/.313/.605 in AAA for the Braves.

The trade would allow them to shed payroll, add a quality left fielder which is a clear need, and then give them the flexibility to add a quality 1B in the off season.
Hm. This just doesn't seem like a viable trade, to me at least. If, as you suggest, Olson's best years are behind him, then why would the M's take on $22MM/year for 5 more years? There's no way the M's would take on a contract like this.

If the Braves are selling as we head to the trade deadline, I can see them moving Ozuna who might have some value and would be a short term rental for some other team. But I don't think they're in "tear down to studs and rebuild" mode. Olson still seems like a marquee guy to me - and he's already good for 3.1 WAR, 10 games before the trade deadline.

One thing I think we can all agree on: thank Jeebus we don't still have Jarred Kelenic to deal with.
I don't think trading Olson means tearing down the studs and rebuild mode. It simply allows them to move an aging player so they have more money to reshape their roster a bit.

You guys are acting like Raley is some piece of shit. He was worth 3.2 bWAR last year making $700k. He's plenty valuable in a trade.

The M's would be doing this thinking that getting Olson for the next 2-3 years greatly chances their chance to win a title. The Braves already have Olson and they stink...

DavidGee24
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Re: Another trade deadline plan.

Post by DavidGee24 » Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:40 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 8:15 pm
On today's episode of the point flying over DavidGee's head... IT'S A SPORTS FORUM WHERE PEOPLE TALK SPORTS AND POSIT IDEAS THAT ENGAGE CONVERSATION ABOUT BASEBALL. Get it now?

It's always the ones who never posit ideas of their own who are the most critical.

1) Garver's second half salary would be like $5 million and they could quite easily take it on if it means getting pitching prospects in return that don't currently exist in their system. They have 0 farm depth, don't want to trade their young MLB talent, and could get creative by taking on someone like Garver if it improves their current, dire pitching situation. Dominguez is a much better pitcher than Legumina... he throws 100 mph.

2) Does this post say anything about the trade happening now? It's a TRADE DEADLINE where the logical conclusion is that this plan assumes the Diamondbacks are out of contention and decide to sell. "Izzi totally sucks" just shows your lack of understanding the nuance of valuation in prospects. But even if you do look at raw stats, apparently you think a 2.85 ERA while pitching in Modesto over 110 innings is bad.

3) The Red Sox just traded Devers for a bag of balls to get out from under his contract. He's 5 years younger than Olson. Atlanta may want to look at freeing up money and getting out of some aging contracts if the team isn't performing.
Yes, and I conversed with you about your ideas. See how that works? Maybe you should be the one looking up.

Dominguez has a career ERA of 3.58 and a career WHIP of 1.208. Now, while Legumina is so-so at best, Dominguez' 100 MPH is translating into so-so performance. As for "improving the Orioles current, dire pitching situation", how exactly does a guy like Morales do that? His ERA in the minors is 4.38 and his WHIP is 1.356. He's likely never even going to make it to the show.

Izzi has followed up his 2.85 ERA season (with a WHIP of 1.392 so his bullpen must have saved his ass a lot) with a 5.27 ERA/1.720 WHIP. As a minor leaguer is career ERA is 3.91 and his WHIP is a horrific 1.529. He sucks.

True, the Giants did send the Red Sox a glorified bag of balls, but that doesn't mean the Braves are going to be that dumb. It would be great if they were, but you can't count on something like that.

GL_Storm
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Re: Another trade deadline plan.

Post by GL_Storm » Mon Jun 23, 2025 10:19 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Jun 23, 2025 5:53 am

Mariners trade OF Luke Raley, RHP Gregory Santos to the Braves for 1B Matt Olson, RHP Pierce Johnson and cash

Why? This might sound insane... but perhaps the M's think Raley is expendable and Canzone is a long-term solution to platoon alongside Victor Robles in right field. Perhaps the Braves need a small reset. ATL need corner OF help badly and add Santos as a controlled replacement for Johnson. The M's add one of the best 1B's in baseball on an expensive, but somewhat affordable deal. Olson is on pace for another 6+ WAR season and is owed $22M a year until 2029... his age 35 season. Johnson is a solid reliever pitching to a 3.18 FIP with a $7M club option next season.
Raley + another piece for Matt Olson and his contract seems realistic to me but more likely the type of deal that would happen in the offseason.

Pierce Johnson is kind of interesting on his own. I wonder if he's actually good? Hard to say with relievers.

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