Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

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bpj
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by bpj » Mon Dec 25, 2023 12:18 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Mon Dec 25, 2023 11:36 am
Cardinals won two of them in the last ten years. Win a lot of games as opposed to not winning them? You don't feel Dipoto has taken advantage of this window to win games. Would that help him win more games in the future? I don't see how
The Cardinals haven't won a World Series since 2011.

Here's a note for Dipoto:

Of the teams with the best Win % of the last 10 years:

Dodgers, 60.8 Win%
Yankees, 55.7%
Astros, 55.2% - Won WS twice
Indians, 54.8%
Cardinals, 54.4%
Rays, 53.8%
Red Sox, 53.5%
Braves, 53.4%
Cubs, 51.8%
Brewers, 51.6%

Of those teams, 4 of them have won a World Series in the last 10 years.

What I see is that 7 of these 10 World Series were won by a team with a Win % of < 54% over the last 10 years.

It's a carrot on a stick.

Obviously sustained success is a nice goal. But you have to go after championships when the opportunity is present. Can't lean on the 10 year plan, that's exactly how they've wasted the last three years and results in perpetual mediocrity.

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Donn Beach
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by Donn Beach » Mon Dec 25, 2023 12:35 pm

I don't disagree, I wasn't trying to defend Dipoto. I was trying to point out nothing he is doing is about sustained success. . If he is claiming he intends to win at that rate you don't do it by embracing mediocrity. I think that be quite an achievement in itself.

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bpj
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by bpj » Mon Dec 25, 2023 12:41 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Mon Dec 25, 2023 12:35 pm
I don't disagree, I wasn't trying to defend Dipoto. I was trying to point out nothing he is doing is about sustained success. . If he is claiming he intends to win at that rate you don't do it by embracing mediocrity. I think that be quite an achievement in itself.
I don't think they're embracing mediocrity.

But I do think their goals foster it.

It's never about putting the team over the top to win, it's always about "not sacrificing the future".

harmony
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by harmony » Tue Dec 26, 2023 4:07 am

This forum has spawned numerous derogatory names for folks in the Mariner front office but at least two Cincinnati fans agree on chuckleheads:

https://www.redszone.com/forums/showthr ... ost4666603

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Donn Beach
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by Donn Beach » Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:39 pm

Wander Franco on the run
The Santo Domingo Prosecutor's Office for Children and Adolescents conducted two home raids in search of Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco on Tuesday, but he was not found, according to a report from Listin Diario.

Per the report, police showed up at Franco's mother's house in the afternoon before heading to his own property in Villa Real. The 22-year-old ballplayer was not at either residence.

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D-train
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by D-train » Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:41 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:39 pm
Wander Franco on the run
The Santo Domingo Prosecutor's Office for Children and Adolescents conducted two home raids in search of Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco on Tuesday, but he was not found, according to a report from Listin Diario.

Per the report, police showed up at Franco's mother's house in the afternoon before heading to his own property in Villa Real. The 22-year-old ballplayer was not at either residence.
So he could have had 100 hot 18 year old GFs but decided to flush his entire life because he wanted one that was under age. Beyond belief.
dt

harmony
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by harmony » Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:35 am

This week in a prospects roundup, MLB.com prospects columnist Jim Callis noted Mariner second-base prospect Ryan Bliss:
Ryan Bliss, 2B/SS, Mariners (No. 14)
Bliss starred at Auburn en route to becoming a 2021 second-round pick by the D-backs, then stumbled through a .214/.298/.343 first full season as a pro. He simplified his setup at the plate and took a more direct path to the ball in 2023 while exploding for a .304/.378/.524 line with 23 homers and 55 steals between Double-A and Triple-A. Traded to the Mariners in the Paul Sewald trade in July, he finished third in the Minors in runs (110) and total bases (283), fourth in hits (164) and seventh in extra-base hits (65).
https://www.mlb.com/news/prospects-who- ... ed-in-2023

Pharmabro
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by Pharmabro » Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:38 am

D-train wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:41 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:39 pm
Wander Franco on the run
The Santo Domingo Prosecutor's Office for Children and Adolescents conducted two home raids in search of Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco on Tuesday, but he was not found, according to a report from Listin Diario.

Per the report, police showed up at Franco's mother's house in the afternoon before heading to his own property in Villa Real. The 22-year-old ballplayer was not at either residence.
So he could have had 100 hot 18 year old GFs but decided to flush his entire life because he wanted one that was under age. Beyond belief.
When I travel I tend to play it safe. But, I did talk to some dudes that went out for the night clubbing. One of the things they communicated to me was that they didn't really care about age. And I also read in the comments section when this story was breaking out that some of the folks were from the D.R. and they have seen this before. I could not tell you if they knew about mothers using daughters who developed early (precocious puberty), to snare older dudes for bribery, or what. But, I don't think the baseball player was posing as a teacher to gain access to minors. I think he was at a local bar and he was probably set-up and he allowed himself to be tricked into this.


What a shame, I wonder if this has an impact on the rumored talks between Seattle and TB about: Randy A., Harold R., Yandy D., Isaac P., etc, etc
You know there is a window here for a block-buster scenario for a TB match-up.

I was looking at Randy A. at 33M in value and Harold R@ 1.5M trade calc.

Harold R (DH, OF, 1B) over the last 2 years has had a mini breakout .306 .348 .432 .780 121 OPS+(High average but low ISO and walk rate) but is only estimated at 4.4M in his 2nd to last Arbitration year.

Randy A. had 3.5 WAR and a 120 OPS+ last year. He has trended down with the bat for 3 years in a row. But he has a track record of being a good but not great player. He has 3 years remaining of arbitration and is earning 9M for 2024

Luke Raley (1B, OF) This may be why a guy like Harold, or Randy or Yandy, or Paredes is available is because you have good young cheap options and the Rays have been cheap for years. At age 28 he busted out for a 249 .333 .490 .824 126 OPS+ line in 118 games after smoking the minors for years. (MLB trade calc. 10M)

Paredes: 131 OPS+, He only has an 18% career K-rate and is entering his age 25 season. 60M trade calc

I could see a Randy and Harold deal coming together for Woo, Gabe G., and 2 or 3 Lotto tickets form the top 15-30 ranked prospects in out system. I feel pretty good about our top 5(JP, Julio, Garver, Cal, France) This trade would cut the question marks in 1/2. And Picking 2 of (Rojas, Moore, Haggerty, Urias, Marlow, TT, Jose C., or Canzone to fill the last 2 would be ok by me.

Randy A., and Harold R. would add about 13.4M for 2024, and with good performance about 22-25M for 2025. I saw that someone though with all the moves they had something like 30-35M before Garver to spend. This puts us at 25.4M and leaves 5-10M on the table. I's be pretty happy with adding one of the guys like (Paxton, Ryu, maybe Montas on a make-good).

Just some idle ramblings.

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D-train
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by D-train » Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:42 am

harmony wrote:
Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:35 am
This week in a prospects roundup, MLB.com prospects columnist Jim Callis noted Mariner second-base prospect Ryan Bliss:
Ryan Bliss, 2B/SS, Mariners (No. 14)
Bliss starred at Auburn en route to becoming a 2021 second-round pick by the D-backs, then stumbled through a .214/.298/.343 first full season as a pro. He simplified his setup at the plate and took a more direct path to the ball in 2023 while exploding for a .304/.378/.524 line with 23 homers and 55 steals between Double-A and Triple-A. Traded to the Mariners in the Paul Sewald trade in July, he finished third in the Minors in runs (110) and total bases (283), fourth in hits (164) and seventh in extra-base hits (65).
https://www.mlb.com/news/prospects-who- ... ed-in-2023
I can't believe so called prospect analyst is using traditional metrics to evaluate a player.

Bliss was terrible in Reno, ok in Tacoma and terrible in the AFL. There is still hope for him but I am thinking Shed Long or Toro 2.0 is the most likely outcome.
dt

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desbcoach
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Re: Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

Post by desbcoach » Thu Dec 28, 2023 1:05 am

Morosi makes no sense here, India is a weaker hitting 2nd baseman the we have already and poor defense. We passed on FA SS that were better. I just don’t see it.

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1770796/ ... ch-garver/

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