Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[Seattle or Bust]

Something I have circled back to is the Jorge Polanco trade.
--https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/ ... trade.html

He has been a 115 OPS+ bat who has been played at SS, 2B, DH 3B, (positions listed by # of games played). He has lost out to young break-out Rookies: Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien, and Carlos C. signed to the mega-deal. He is owed 10.5 for 2024 +a 750K buyout of a 2025 12M option. Jorge Polanco's trade calc. is about 9M which was about what Geno's was.

I don't think after the other salary dumps the Twins have any delusions of getting Woo-Gilbert out of this deal. Maybe a pure prospect package

I went with trading them:
Jose C. He was a 2-WAR guy who held his own with a 90 OPS+, and can play anywhere in the infield well enough even SS. He can get stolen bases really well and would be a guy they can option down for the next 2 years while having a really good back-up for infield at the same time. He handles himself well at the plate: he had better than a 12% walk rate and was 26/29 in SBs.

I added a good BP arm with options in Ty Adcock

And then added two more major league depth types in Kuhn, and Mcgo

ANd now all we need is a legit bat for the outfield.

Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary.

The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

Only if you assume that Caballero is going to play well above talent level again.

In the 2nd half Cabby put up .7 fWAR... he hit .198/.305/.267/.572 from July 1 to the end of the season. To hit at that putrid level and still put up .7 fWAR says a lot about his defense and base running... but you can't put a guy out there who is going to hang a .572 OPS and 71 wRC+ for 3 months. You're just wasting a spot in the lineup at that point.

Defense first players just don't carry that much value and not all WAR is created equal... Polanco is a 118 wRC+ hitter. It's why he's making money and guys like Nicky Lopez (who hung 6 fWAR in 2021 and nobody cared) or Jose Caballero don't.

[ice99]

I agree. Although, he has shown some upside, it's too early to tell.

[harmony]

Something I have circled back to is the Jorge Polanco trade.
--https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/ ... trade.html

He has been a 115 OPS+ bat who has been played at SS, 2B, DH 3B, (positions listed by # of games played). He has lost out to young break-out Rookies: Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien, and Carlos C. signed to the mega-deal. He is owed 10.5 for 2024 +a 750K buyout of a 2025 12M option. Jorge Polanco's trade calc. is about 9M which was about what Geno's was.

I don't think after the other salary dumps the Twins have any delusions of getting Woo-Gilbert out of this deal. Maybe a pure prospect package

I went with trading them:
Jose C. He was a 2-WAR guy who held his own with a 90 OPS+, and can play anywhere in the infield well enough even SS. He can get stolen bases really well and would be a guy they can option down for the next 2 years while having a really good back-up for infield at the same time. He handles himself well at the plate: he had better than a 12% walk rate and was 26/29 in SBs.

I added a good BP arm with options in Ty Adcock

And then added two more major league depth types in Kuhn, and Mcgo

ANd now all we need is a legit bat for the outfield.

Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary.

The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

Only if you assume that Caballero is going to play well above talent level again.

In the 2nd half Cabby put up .7 fWAR... he hit .198/.305/.267/.572 from July 1 to the end of the season. To hit at that putrid level and still put up .7 fWAR says a lot about his defense and base running... but you can't put a guy out there who is going to hang a .572 OPS and 71 wRC+ for 3 months. You're just wasting a spot in the lineup at that point.

Defense first players just don't carry that much value and not all WAR is created equal... Polanco is a 118 wRC+ hitter. It's why he's making money and guys like Nicky Lopez (who hung 6 fWAR in 2021 and nobody cared) or Jose Caballero don't.

Steamer and FanGraphs project Jose Caballero with a 2024 wRC+ of 98 in 62 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose- ... osition=2B

As points of reference, Hall of Famers Luis Aparicio, Ozzie Smith and Nellie Fox posted career wRC+ of 83, 90 and 96, respectively.

Caballero is neither a future Hall of Famer nor the Mariners' sole 2024 option at second base.

But defense has value.

[Seattle or Bust]

Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary.

The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

Only if you assume that Caballero is going to play well above talent level again.

In the 2nd half Cabby put up .7 fWAR... he hit .198/.305/.267/.572 from July 1 to the end of the season. To hit at that putrid level and still put up .7 fWAR says a lot about his defense and base running... but you can't put a guy out there who is going to hang a .572 OPS and 71 wRC+ for 3 months. You're just wasting a spot in the lineup at that point.

Defense first players just don't carry that much value and not all WAR is created equal... Polanco is a 118 wRC+ hitter. It's why he's making money and guys like Nicky Lopez (who hung 6 fWAR in 2021 and nobody cared) or Jose Caballero don't.

Steamer and FanGraphs project Jose Caballero with a 2024 wRC+ of 98 in 62 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose- ... osition=2B

As points of reference, Hall of Famers Luis Aparicio, Ozzie Smith and Nellie Fox posted career wRC+ of 83, 90 and 96, respectively.

Caballero is neither a future Hall of Famer nor the Mariners' sole 2024 option at second base.

But defense has value.

Sure.

But not enough to say no to a guy who has put up 118-124 wRC+ the last 4 seasons minus the Covid year if the return is right. At that point offer one of Rojas or Cabby in the return for the deal and put Polanco at 2B.

If Cabby puts up a 98 OPS+ I'll eat my socks. Wouldn't want to anger the Steamer Gods tho. No way Jose.

[D-train]

Hint: League-adjusted wRC+ is probably more meaningful than raw OPS stats.

LOL Other than a few dozen PAs in Reno they all played in Tacoma so zero need for wRC+

[GL_Storm]

AFL pitching doesn't approximate MLB and I'm not sure hitting stats in the AFL mean much of anything.

[harmony]

Only if you assume that Caballero is going to play well above talent level again.

In the 2nd half Cabby put up .7 fWAR... he hit .198/.305/.267/.572 from July 1 to the end of the season. To hit at that putrid level and still put up .7 fWAR says a lot about his defense and base running... but you can't put a guy out there who is going to hang a .572 OPS and 71 wRC+ for 3 months. You're just wasting a spot in the lineup at that point.

Defense first players just don't carry that much value and not all WAR is created equal... Polanco is a 118 wRC+ hitter. It's why he's making money and guys like Nicky Lopez (who hung 6 fWAR in 2021 and nobody cared) or Jose Caballero don't.

Steamer and FanGraphs project Jose Caballero with a 2024 wRC+ of 98 in 62 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose- ... osition=2B

As points of reference, Hall of Famers Luis Aparicio, Ozzie Smith and Nellie Fox posted career wRC+ of 83, 90 and 96, respectively.

Caballero is neither a future Hall of Famer nor the Mariners' sole 2024 option at second base.

But defense has value.

Sure.

But not enough to say no to a guy who has put up 118-124 wRC+ the last 4 seasons minus the Covid year if the return is right. At that point offer one of Rojas or Cabby in the return for the deal and put Polanco at 2B.

If Cabby puts up a 98 OPS+ I'll eat my socks. Wouldn't want to anger the Steamer Gods tho. No way Jose.

ZiPS projections for Jose Caballero are more conservative with an OPS+ of 95 and 1.4 WAR in just 294 plate appearances.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-p ... -mariners/

Jorge Polanco would have the edge in a standard-format fantasy league that counts only hitting stats to the exclusion of other contributions.

The Mariners don't play in a fantasy league.

[harmony]

In Wednesday's Fair Territory podcast, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pegged Mitch Garver as the most underrated signing of the offseason so far:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynIBZiog8V8

... at about 16:40.

[D-train]

AFL pitching doesn't approximate MLB and I'm not sure hitting stats in the AFL mean much of anything.

You must of blinked over "Most Closely"

How about his AAA OPS relative to the other guys that we know love and have seen fail in the Big Leagues.

2023 AAA OPS MLB OPS
Ford: 1.031 .798
Haggerty: .997 .705
Kean Wong: .922 N/A
Trammell: .920 .612
Scheiner: .878 N/A
Deloach: .868 N/A
Hummel: .844 .551
Bliss: .779 ????????

[ice99]

In Wednesday's Fair Territory podcast, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pegged Mitch Garver as the most underrated signing of the offseason so far:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynIBZiog8V8

... at about 16:40.

He mentions Eduardo Rodriguez at about the 16:20 mark.