Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[Seattle or Bust]

The Correa saga continues. He’s apparently not interested in restructuring the deal, and there’s a good chance it will fall through. My guess is he’s going to wind up with a deal like the one the Twins gave him - 3 or 4 years instead of 12-13.

Three teams have checked in with him in the past few days. I used to be excited about the possibility of landing Correa, but not so much now. Kind of doesn’t matter - I’m 99% sure the M’s are not one if the 3 teams showing interest.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/mlb-rumors ... 04316.html

https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa- ... n-for-mets

Guess we understand why he doesn't steal bases now. As a 19 year old he had 20 stolen bags in 56 A+ ball games. Since 2017, he has 6 total and didn't steal a bag in '20, '21, or '22.

[D-train]

The Correa saga continues. He’s apparently not interested in restructuring the deal, and there’s a good chance it will fall through. My guess is he’s going to wind up with a deal like the one the Twins gave him - 3 or 4 years instead of 12-13.

Three teams have checked in with him in the past few days. I used to be excited about the possibility of landing Correa, but not so much now. Kind of doesn’t matter - I’m 99% sure the M’s are not one if the 3 teams showing interest.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/mlb-rumors ... 04316.html

https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa- ... n-for-mets

Guess we understand why he doesn't steal bases now. As a 19 year old he had 20 stolen bags in 56 A+ ball games. Since 2017, he has 6 total and didn't steal a bag in '20, '21, or '22.

Dead last in the Base running metric. JP 18th of 22.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=19,d

[D-train]

We are screwed.

[Big_Maple]

We are screwed.

Things got even harder. The Bucs just agreed to a contract with Rich Hill, so plans to throw Marco and/or Flexen in the mix just became less relevant.

https://www.mlb.com/news/rich-hill-deal-with-pirates

[TraderGary]

Sometimes I forget why they stopped letting him spend money, then remember how he's allocated money previously...

2016:
Aoki $5.5M
Lind $8M
Miley $6M
Seth Smith $6.75M
Iannetta $4.25M
Cishek $4M
Benoit $8M
TOTAL: $42.5M
As % of Payroll: 29.86%
Total WAR: 3.0
$/WAR: $14.17M

2017:
Gallardo $9M
Smyly $6.85M
Cishek $6M
Valencia $5.5M
Rzepczynski $5.5M
Ruiz $4.5M
TOTAL: $37.35M
As % of Payroll: 24.2%
Total WAR: -0.3
$/WAR: error

2018:
Gordon $10.8M
Nicasio $7.75M
David Phelps $5.5M
Rzepczynski $5.5M
TOTAL: $29.6M
As % of Payroll: 18.75%
Total WAR: 0.5
$/WAR: $59.2M

2019:
Gordon $13.3M
Kikuchi $9.5M
TOTAL: $22.8M
As % of Payroll: 15.56%
Total WAR: 0.7
$/WAR: $32.57M

2020:
Kikuchi $16M
Gordon $13.74M
Mallex Smith $2.35M
TOTAL: $32M
Short season

2021:
Kikuchi $16.5M
Paxton $8.5M
Montero $2.25M
TOTAL: $27.25M
As % of Payroll: 37.12%
Total WAR: 1.4
$/WAR: $19.46M

2022:
Frazier $8M
Winker $6.75M
Giles $5.25M
Romo $2M
White $1.4M
TOTAL: $23.4M
As % of Payroll: 22.52%
Total WAR: 0.9
$/WAR: $26M

From this group of players, over 6 years (covid pass for 2020), these players accumulated 6.2 WAR for a cost of $182.9M, good for a $/WAR cost of $29.5M

In a market where they estimate one WAR is worth ~$8M on the free agent market, Dipoto paid $29.5M/WAR for these bums.

And got a promotion.

Wow great work! That's pretty damning to say the least.

Here's the rub though. The reason the owners love him, and gave him a promotion, is because he's built a team that as currently constructed, can compete for a WC. And he did it with a payroll in the bottom 3rd of the league. The team is just good enough to keep the fans interested and the advertising companies spending money. And on a payroll budget that enables them to pocket tens of millions of dollars each and every year. JD is the perfect GM for this ownership group in their minds. I think they couldn't be happier with him.

Great post bpj.

[desbcoach]

Rangers sign N Evoldi. Going to a lot tougher this year

[Pharmabro]

We are screwed.

This sounds strange I get it Reynolds is an OF Varsho is an outfield. But Varsho has excellent CF Defense& other OF D, Varsho can play at catcher. Varsho has club control not a FA until 2027. Reynolds is a 127 OPS+ guy who, can't play competently in CF anymore. He already costs 7M and will just go up for the next 3 years but his value goes way down when you know he costs you games in CF so a 120's OPS+ bat in the corner = Haniger = Teoscar. Varsho was a 109OPS+ guy who was worth 5WAR because he did play good center field D and was able to man catcher. Reynolds is needed he has a better than .800 OPS vs both right and lefties as switch hitter. He is valued, but just not at a sky-high value. If the demand = Cal =NO! None of the I will make a big hole to fill a hole makes sense.

If I recall correctly Teo for his last year was worth about 8M. He was in the last year so for the last 3 of Reynolds should go something like:
23 Teo is payed 14M Reynolds 7M so give him +7M for salary savings =15M
in 24 Reynolds ARby # probably around 13 or 14 M so give it 9 or 10M
in 25 Reynolds is probably making 20M but inflation so give it a 8m

Reynolds career has been slightly better so give it a 10% premium33Mx10% So, He is worth 36-37M give or take.

So, Any talk of taking major pieces off the major league roster is a non-starter for me. Even in the BP I am not releasing my top 2 Munoz and Brash are not in a deal. The rotation Kirby and Gilbert =Nope. France, JRod, Cal, Eugenio are staying put. They would not want big contract types and JP makes no sense.

If a deal is made it has to be limited to a few top 100 types:
In the M's system they have several top 100 assets to deal from
The JRod & comp Rd. A picks should be valued as a top 100 level asset
The M's top 6 or so prospects should all be considered top 100 types
the #2 ranked catcher Cartaya a 21 year old who has advanced to the same level (A Ball in 2022) had about the same OPS .882 as Ford (age 19) .878 OPS and his value was 50M on the calc. vs Ford who the trade calc. has an insulting 11M dollar value. I was under the impression that if two players are at an equal level and = performance and one player is 2 years younger the younger guy has more projectable future performance. He is our #1 but these are all guys I would value as a top 100 prospects.
Hancock and Miller are top 100s
Young is a really good SS as well as
G Gonzalez OF is our #3
Montez had a 1.100 OPS at age 18
Arroyo had a .940 OPS as a SS

So, something like #1Ford C, + #3 G Gonzalez OF, +Comp pick, + OF Deloach #9, + #7 RHP Dollard

So 3 top 100 types 2 out of the top 3 + a pick and 2M for the draft, 4 of the top 10

That looks like more than enough to land him. Reynolds is a good player but not a great player. He should be valued as such.

[Pharmabro]

Rangers sign N Evoldi. Going to a lot tougher this year

Oh, piss on it.

Now all I need to hear is that they signed Carlos C.

[Pharmabro]

Sometimes I forget why they stopped letting him spend money, then remember how he's allocated money previously...

2016:
Aoki $5.5M
Lind $8M
Miley $6M
Seth Smith $6.75M
Iannetta $4.25M
Cishek $4M
Benoit $8M
TOTAL: $42.5M
As % of Payroll: 29.86%
Total WAR: 3.0
$/WAR: $14.17M

2017:
Gallardo $9M
Smyly $6.85M
Cishek $6M
Valencia $5.5M
Rzepczynski $5.5M
Ruiz $4.5M
TOTAL: $37.35M
As % of Payroll: 24.2%
Total WAR: -0.3
$/WAR: error

2018:
Gordon $10.8M
Nicasio $7.75M
David Phelps $5.5M
Rzepczynski $5.5M
TOTAL: $29.6M
As % of Payroll: 18.75%
Total WAR: 0.5
$/WAR: $59.2M

2019:
Gordon $13.3M
Kikuchi $9.5M
TOTAL: $22.8M
As % of Payroll: 15.56%
Total WAR: 0.7
$/WAR: $32.57M

2020:
Kikuchi $16M
Gordon $13.74M
Mallex Smith $2.35M
TOTAL: $32M
Short season

2021:
Kikuchi $16.5M
Paxton $8.5M
Montero $2.25M
TOTAL: $27.25M
As % of Payroll: 37.12%
Total WAR: 1.4
$/WAR: $19.46M

2022:
Frazier $8M
Winker $6.75M
Giles $5.25M
Romo $2M
White $1.4M
TOTAL: $23.4M
As % of Payroll: 22.52%
Total WAR: 0.9
$/WAR: $26M

From this group of players, over 6 years (covid pass for 2020), these players accumulated 6.2 WAR for a cost of $182.9M, good for a $/WAR cost of $29.5M

In a market where they estimate one WAR is worth ~$8M on the free agent market, Dipoto paid $29.5M/WAR for these bums.

And got a promotion.

Wow great work! That's pretty damning to say the least.

Here's the rub though. The reason the owners love him, and gave him a promotion, is because he's built a team that as currently constructed, can compete for a WC. And he did it with a payroll in the bottom 3rd of the league. The team is just good enough to keep the fans interested and the advertising companies spending money. And on a payroll budget that enables them to pocket tens of millions of dollars each and every year. JD is the perfect GM for this ownership group in their minds. I think they couldn't be happier with him.

Great post bpj.

Yes, I thought the same think until I saw Winker and not Saurez

You could pick out the worst injury luck or cliff Falls from any team and call out the decision maker.

@2022 Houston Astros
Jake Odorizzi 8M 0.1 WAR
Pedro Báez 6M -0.2 WAR
Maton 1.5M -0.3 WAR
Castro 3.5M -0.6
Trey Mancini 2.6M -0.5
Yuli G 8M -0.3
Niko Goodrum 2.1M -0.3 WAR
Maldonado 5M 0.3 WAR
Total -1.8 WAR 36.5M

20.3M for each - WAR they really suck down there in Houston with their decision in free agency & trade and who to tender and not tender

[bpj]

Sometimes I forget why they stopped letting him spend money, then remember how he's allocated money previously...

2016:
Aoki $5.5M
Lind $8M
Miley $6M
Seth Smith $6.75M
Iannetta $4.25M
Cishek $4M
Benoit $8M
TOTAL: $42.5M
As % of Payroll: 29.86%
Total WAR: 3.0
$/WAR: $14.17M

2017:
Gallardo $9M
Smyly $6.85M
Cishek $6M
Valencia $5.5M
Rzepczynski $5.5M
Ruiz $4.5M
TOTAL: $37.35M
As % of Payroll: 24.2%
Total WAR: -0.3
$/WAR: error

2018:
Gordon $10.8M
Nicasio $7.75M
David Phelps $5.5M
Rzepczynski $5.5M
TOTAL: $29.6M
As % of Payroll: 18.75%
Total WAR: 0.5
$/WAR: $59.2M

2019:
Gordon $13.3M
Kikuchi $9.5M
TOTAL: $22.8M
As % of Payroll: 15.56%
Total WAR: 0.7
$/WAR: $32.57M

2020:
Kikuchi $16M
Gordon $13.74M
Mallex Smith $2.35M
TOTAL: $32M
Short season

2021:
Kikuchi $16.5M
Paxton $8.5M
Montero $2.25M
TOTAL: $27.25M
As % of Payroll: 37.12%
Total WAR: 1.4
$/WAR: $19.46M

2022:
Frazier $8M
Winker $6.75M
Giles $5.25M
Romo $2M
White $1.4M
TOTAL: $23.4M
As % of Payroll: 22.52%
Total WAR: 0.9
$/WAR: $26M

From this group of players, over 6 years (covid pass for 2020), these players accumulated 6.2 WAR for a cost of $182.9M, good for a $/WAR cost of $29.5M

In a market where they estimate one WAR is worth ~$8M on the free agent market, Dipoto paid $29.5M/WAR for these bums.

And got a promotion.

Wow great work! That's pretty damning to say the least.

Here's the rub though. The reason the owners love him, and gave him a promotion, is because he's built a team that as currently constructed, can compete for a WC. And he did it with a payroll in the bottom 3rd of the league. The team is just good enough to keep the fans interested and the advertising companies spending money. And on a payroll budget that enables them to pocket tens of millions of dollars each and every year. JD is the perfect GM for this ownership group in their minds. I think they couldn't be happier with him.

Great post bpj.

Yes, I thought the same think until I saw Winker and not Saurez

You could pick out the worst injury luck or cliff Falls from any team and call out the decision maker.

@2022 Houston Astros
Jake Odorizzi 8M 0.1 WAR
Pedro Báez 6M -0.2 WAR
Maton 1.5M -0.3 WAR
Castro 3.5M -0.6
Trey Mancini 2.6M -0.5
Yuli G 8M -0.3
Niko Goodrum 2.1M -0.3 WAR
Maldonado 5M 0.3 WAR
Total -1.8 WAR 36.5M

20.3M for each - WAR they really suck down there in Houston with their decision in free agency & trade and who to tender and not tender

It's certainly a post focused on the bad deals.

Can you do the same for the Astros since 2016? See if they (or any team) come anywhere near Jerry Dipoto's $29.5M/WAR with their failures over that span 2016-2022.

Also, does the Astros GM still have a job, despite winning the World Series?