GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Seattle or Bust
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Re: GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:47 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 11:16 am
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:36 am
Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:30 am
okay, if that's the chest...
Cute.

Image

Image

Others don't think he's that good.
sorry, I was interrupted mid post attempt...okay, if that's chest, he makes that throw
https://www.tiktok.com/@thecouchgm/vide ... 8161330463
https://youtube.com/shorts/adVcIbheHR4? ... 1pKZTydjpw

go to the 5.5 minute mark, Trout ground out, is that the sort of throw you're questioning?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL7Q1t7JGVE
that?
https://www.mlb.com/video/emerson-hanco ... ideo-share
Good for him.

Now watch the games over the past week where his throws have been a clear issue. You don't have them because they're not showing up in highlights. He threw 2x throws in game 2 that bounced 5-7 times, spiked one last night, and threw another one at Naylor's shoe laces.

The throw on the Trout play (if I'm remembering correctly) was errant and took Naylor up the line... lucky Trout isn't as fast as he used to be because that's one way to get your 1B injured.
Last edited by Seattle or Bust on Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:50 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:25 pm
Sq
He's not doing that anymore for some reason
Modern analytics comes up with reasons. We use some splits, they use the statcast info and whatever. They are taking into account all his at bats, his swings, the parks, pitchers he's faced, launch angles, bat speed. They crunch it all together and predict he's not in a particularly alarming slump.
3 for his last 31 with 0 walks for a guy who makes his money taking BB's isn't a particularly alarming slump?

Yeesh... if you say so.

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Donn Beach
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Re: GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Post by Donn Beach » Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:51 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:50 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:25 pm
Sq
He's not doing that anymore for some reason
Modern analytics comes up with reasons. We use some splits, they use the statcast info and whatever. They are taking into account all his at bats, his swings, the parks, pitchers he's faced, launch angles, bat speed. They crunch it all together and predict he's not in a particularly alarming slump.
3 for his last 31 with 0 walks for a guy who makes his money taking BB's isn't a particularly alarming slump?

Yeesh... if you say so.
In terms of a season? No it's not

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Re: GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:54 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:51 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:50 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:25 pm
Sq
Modern analytics comes up with reasons. We use some splits, they use the statcast info and whatever. They are taking into account all his at bats, his swings, the parks, pitchers he's faced, launch angles, bat speed. They crunch it all together and predict he's not in a particularly alarming slump.
3 for his last 31 with 0 walks for a guy who makes his money taking BB's isn't a particularly alarming slump?

Yeesh... if you say so.
In terms of a season? No it's not
In term's of JP's history, it is.

He is prone to LENGTHY runs of shit play. Just last year he put up a .530 OPS 2nd half...

The M's can't have that at their leadoff spot.

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Donn Beach
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Re: GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Post by Donn Beach » Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:04 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:54 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:51 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:50 pm


3 for his last 31 with 0 walks for a guy who makes his money taking BB's isn't a particularly alarming slump?

Yeesh... if you say so.
In terms of a season? No it's not
In term's of JP's history, it is.

He is prone to LENGTHY runs of shit play. Just last year he put up a .530 OPS 2nd half...

The M's can't have that at their leadoff spot.
Okay, but fangraphs is running a heck of a lot more data than a split from last season. I'm not saying you are wrong but I'll go with the big data. And I'm not particularly happy with that. It's like everything, the AI revolution, it's about applying data. It's why i was concerned with Musk getting hold of all the federal data, as he said, data is gold. And baseball is no different

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Re: GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:13 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:04 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:54 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:51 pm


In terms of a season? No it's not
In term's of JP's history, it is.

He is prone to LENGTHY runs of shit play. Just last year he put up a .530 OPS 2nd half...

The M's can't have that at their leadoff spot.
Okay, but fangraphs is running a heck of a lot more data than a split from last season. I'm not saying you are wrong but I'll go with the big data. And I'm not particularly happy with that. It's like everything, the AI revolution, it's about applying data. It's why i was concerned with Musk getting hold of all the federal data, as he said, data is gold. And baseball is no different
It's just a silly thing to say that "fangraphs projects JP Crawford having the highest OBP for the 2nd half" as the reason he should stick at leadoff.

What if he doesn't?

You have to make the adjustment. You can't just stick to data while a guy drowns.

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Donn Beach
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Re: GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Post by Donn Beach » Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:24 pm

What if he doesn't? Then he doesn't, there's no guarantees, its handicapping. You can't just stick to the data? Then what do you stick to? The data is the actual evidence. Your gut? Okay, but the whole analytical movement is about getting away from relying on gut decisions

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Re: GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Post by Donn Beach » Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:29 pm

And sorry SoB but this is what kills me. You brought up analytics with with Williamson's dwar. But when it comes to Crawford or Julio, analytics gets rejected. It's just the cherry picking here, it happens all the time

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Re: GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:34 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:29 pm
And sorry SoB but this is what kills me. You brought up analytics with with Williamson's dwar. But when it comes to Crawford or Julio, analytics gets rejected. It's just the cherry picking here, it happens all the time
My perception of Williamson's lack of an arm says nothing about his overall defensive metrics. Which is why it was silly for you to reply to my argument about his arm w. a defensive runs saved graphic and is why I replied with other metrics.

My argument is that his arm isn't as good as advertised which I'm fairly certain is true. His arm is not a 60-grade arm. You'd have to be insane to watch him throw a baseball and think that... unless he's injured.

I posted a throw from him in AA the other day which was much stronger than anything we've seen at this level and I don't know why that is. Perhaps he's nervous and doesn't want to make mistakes so he's aiming more? Perhaps he's got an injury... I really don't know.

I think Williamson is a good defender. I don't think he's an elite defender.
Last edited by Seattle or Bust on Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: GT 7/26 5 game win streak starting

Post by Seattle or Bust » Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:36 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:24 pm
What if he doesn't? Then he doesn't, there's no guarantees, its handicapping. You can't just stick to the data? Then what do you stick to? The data is the actual evidence. Your gut? Okay, but the whole analytical movement is about getting away from relying on gut decisions
That attitude got you a .530 OPS hitter at leadoff for 60 games to finish a season where the team fell flat on its ass.

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