Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[D-train]

Active in terms of quantity of moves or quantity of dollars....

God knows...

But Mike Salk wrote an article today where he thinks the M's should go the Astros route and try to acquire big pieces from small market teams who want to offload their players before they get expensive.

That's a fine idea until you realize that the M's haven't built nearly the same farm depth that the Astros did when they tanked for a half decade. To acquire CarGo, McCann, Gattis, Giles, Liriano, Verlander, Cole, Osuna, Greinke the Astros offloaded some 30 (!!!) prospects over a span of 4 years... well over half of those prospects were in their org. top 10 from classes that were usually at least top 15 (we're currently bottom 10).

If the M's can somehow acquire Bryan Reynolds and Tim Anderson... and then offer them extensions in the range of what Luis Castillo got... you won't hear a peep from me from me about spending money. That is a perfectly sensible way to add payroll and not have to overpay for big stars.

But that's also a far cry from Dipoto stating like a year ago that trades from the farm are going to be tough as they have so many untouchables.

The M's are so weird. Always so much mixed messaging.

Everything is right there in from of him and instead of just getting in his car and driving to the store to buy a six pack of beer, Jerry has to invent a drone that is capable of going to the store and stealing the beer for him...

Some guys are starting to get it:

[D-train]

[Michael K.]

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mar ... ford-fits/

“Our preference is that J.P. plays shortstop, because I think he’s a good shortstop and all of the things that I said at the end of the year wrap-up remain true today,” Dipoto said. “Part of what has aided the evolution of our club is the static nature of the roster. There’s a lot of guys that have played together now. And that means something when you’re trying to build a lasting, a cohesive, forward-moving, sustainable team. J.P. is our shortstop. He’s been our shortstop for the last three years. We’d like him to be our shortstop for the foreseeable future.”

The Mariners signed Crawford to a five-year, $50 million contract on the first day of the 2022 season.

After posting an unsustainable .363/.454/.582 slash line with 33 hits in 108 plate appearances to start the season, Crawford had a .218/.314/.283 slash line with 18 doubles, two, triples, two homers, 32 RBI, 55 walks and 67 strikeouts over the next 119 games.

That’s not impact production at the plate. And his defense, while still solid, wasn’t quite at the elite levels of 2020 and 2021.

Per the Wins Above Replacement measure, Crawford was worth 2.0 wins on FanGraphs (fWAR), which was 17th best among MLB shortstops and 2.8 wins on Baseball Reference (bWAR), which was 16th best.

It’s significantly less than the top four free-agent shortstops:

Trea Turner: 6.3 fWAR, 4.9 bWAR)
Carlos Correa: 4.4 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR
Xander Bogaerts: 6.1 fWAR, 5.8 bWAR
Dansby Swanson: 6.4 fWAR, 5.7 bWAR
So why do the Mariners remain so firm in keeping Crawford at shortstop, limiting their options. MLB insiders and those close to the game had plenty of theories as to why with one being quite obvious.

“Realistically, Jerry can say that because he knows they probably can’t sign any of those four shortstops unless they really overpay,” said a MLB agent, who didn’t represent any of the four shortstops. “Even then, that might not be enough. It kind of lowers the bar for him.”

The static nature of the roster is a good thing? Never mind that we get almost no offense from 2nd Base, SS, LF or DH...it's best just to keep the same guys together? Fuck you Jerry.

An unamed agent is saying "we want JP at SS" is simply lip service to the fans because Jerry KNOWS we can't do any better? This doesn't make me feel any better about thinking the perception of this team was changed this offseason and maybe we could talk a big name into signing here.

[bpj]

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mar ... ford-fits/

“Our preference is that J.P. plays shortstop, because I think he’s a good shortstop and all of the things that I said at the end of the year wrap-up remain true today,” Dipoto said. “Part of what has aided the evolution of our club is the static nature of the roster. There’s a lot of guys that have played together now. And that means something when you’re trying to build a lasting, a cohesive, forward-moving, sustainable team. J.P. is our shortstop. He’s been our shortstop for the last three years. We’d like him to be our shortstop for the foreseeable future.”

The Mariners signed Crawford to a five-year, $50 million contract on the first day of the 2022 season.

After posting an unsustainable .363/.454/.582 slash line with 33 hits in 108 plate appearances to start the season, Crawford had a .218/.314/.283 slash line with 18 doubles, two, triples, two homers, 32 RBI, 55 walks and 67 strikeouts over the next 119 games.

That’s not impact production at the plate. And his defense, while still solid, wasn’t quite at the elite levels of 2020 and 2021.

Per the Wins Above Replacement measure, Crawford was worth 2.0 wins on FanGraphs (fWAR), which was 17th best among MLB shortstops and 2.8 wins on Baseball Reference (bWAR), which was 16th best.

It’s significantly less than the top four free-agent shortstops:

Trea Turner: 6.3 fWAR, 4.9 bWAR)
Carlos Correa: 4.4 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR
Xander Bogaerts: 6.1 fWAR, 5.8 bWAR
Dansby Swanson: 6.4 fWAR, 5.7 bWAR
So why do the Mariners remain so firm in keeping Crawford at shortstop, limiting their options. MLB insiders and those close to the game had plenty of theories as to why with one being quite obvious.

“Realistically, Jerry can say that because he knows they probably can’t sign any of those four shortstops unless they really overpay,” said a MLB agent, who didn’t represent any of the four shortstops. “Even then, that might not be enough. It kind of lowers the bar for him.”

The static nature of the roster is a good thing? Never mind that we get almost no offense from 2nd Base, SS, LF or DH...it's best just to keep the same guys together? Fuck you Jerry.

An unamed agent is saying "we want JP at SS" is simply lip service to the fans because Jerry KNOWS we can't do any better? This doesn't make me feel any better about thinking the perception of this team was changed this offseason and maybe we could talk a big name into signing here.

In the Morosi interview Dtrain posted above, Dipoto points out that they recognize they need to add "impact" and are looking to do so in the corner outfield. I would expect they will prioritize defense and OBP at 2B because that can be accomplished for $10M or less instead of $200M for one of the star SS's, and add the impact players in the corner outfield.

If they pulled off an under the radar offseason where the upgrades were Kolten Wong and Hunter Renfroe, then they also bring back Mitch Haniger, it would make for a deep lineup without any flashy moves.

As much as we'd love to see it, we don't need to spend $100M on anyone to gain ground on the Astros.

They need to add enough depth at the top of the roster that guys like Toro and Torrens aren't getting 300 at bats.

[D-train]

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1691225/ ... wish-list/

[Michael K.]

In the Morosi interview Dtrain posted above, Dipoto points out that they recognize they need to add "impact" and are looking to do so in the corner outfield. I would expect they will prioritize defense and OBP at 2B because that can be accomplished for $10M or less instead of $200M for one of the star SS's, and add the impact players in the corner outfield.

If they pulled off an under the radar offseason where the upgrades were Kolten Wong and Hunter Renfroe, then they also bring back Mitch Haniger, it would make for a deep lineup without any flashy moves.

As much as we'd love to see it, we don't need to spend $100M on anyone to gain ground on the Astros.

They need to add enough depth at the top of the roster that guys like Toro and Torrens aren't getting 300 at bats.

I guess I don't really care where the impact bat comes from, I just know that if you completely eliminate SS because you are enamored with JP, for some ungodly reason, you limit the amount of bats you can add. Any lineup with JP in it is going to have a hole in it, because he can't hit, IMO.

As for Toro and Torrens, I'd be happy it they didn't get 100 at bats.

I am not as upset about not over paying for a SS as I am for the reasons why. It's either we are in love with a guy who won one Gold Glove and can't hit a lick, or we can't bring Top FAs here. If #1 is the case, then Jerry is an idiot. If #2 is the reason, then Jerry is an idiot for the move he made two deadlines ago, looking to the future one game out of the WC. Either way, I am growing tired of Dipoto.

IMO, it is all him. He brings in the players, he decides who should play. The entire "process" is Jerry. Part of that process was having the Tight Pants Grunter pitch to Alvorez. Sorry, too soon, but I really do believe more and more that Jerry's fingerprints are on everything. It would be like John Schneider telling Pete Carroll what defense to run. Doesn't make much sense. I think Servais gets a bad rap, and I am becoming more and more afraid that Scot is going to be handcuffed with a below average batting order again.

You follow this more closely than I do, so it actually makes me feel better that you believe there are impact bats we can add in the OF to help us, or that there is an option at 2nd Base better than Frasier, but the more I read the more worried I get. Call it the Mariner fan in me!

[Michael K.]

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1691225/ ... wish-list/

I wouldn't mind them bringing Boyd back, but we can't simply add Haninger, or get a gap filler. That would piss me off a lot. I like Mitch, and want him back, but there has to be more than Mitch.

[Big_Maple]

Ok - so stick this in the "WTF --- and monkeys could fly out of my butt" category. But there was an article in the The Athletic the other day about whaty 9 teams could if they wanted to go after Ohtani. I know this will never happen, but since we are all pretty good at suspending disbelief, what do you think of this scenario? As Brock points out, obviously giving up this much to get the Big O would only be worth it if we could immediately sign him to an extension.

I've got my views on whether it's worth going after Ohtani - I am wondering what you all think:

Seattle Mariners

The offer: The Mariners trade RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Chris Flexen, RHP Juan Then, LHP Adam Macko, OF Gabriel Gonzales, OF Kyle Lewis, OF Victor Labrada and IF Tyler Locklear to the Angels for Shohei Ohtani.

This is a quantity over quality (well, in some regards) offer, but that’s not a bad thing — not where the Angels’ farm system is. There are some major league-ready pieces here (Flexen and Lewis) who can step in and help now.

There are also several up-and-coming young players who will help replenish the farm. Hancock, the club’s first-rounder in 2020, is probably the best of the bunch and could contribute in 2023. Don’t sleep on Gonzalez, who hit .321 in two minor league stops as an 18-year-old this season. Hancock and Gonzalez are among the Mariners’ top five prospects.

We know this: The Mariners like Ohtani. Like, a whole lot. They were among the finalists for his services when he was first available. And while we can all agree that the Angels probably should have dealt Ohtani this past summer, it stands to reason the Mariners will put their best foot forward for him when that time arrives.

One important caveat: For the Mariners, this deal is only done with the intention that Ohtani signs a long-term deal with the team. — Corey Brock

[bpj]

In the Morosi interview Dtrain posted above, Dipoto points out that they recognize they need to add "impact" and are looking to do so in the corner outfield. I would expect they will prioritize defense and OBP at 2B because that can be accomplished for $10M or less instead of $200M for one of the star SS's, and add the impact players in the corner outfield.

If they pulled off an under the radar offseason where the upgrades were Kolten Wong and Hunter Renfroe, then they also bring back Mitch Haniger, it would make for a deep lineup without any flashy moves.

As much as we'd love to see it, we don't need to spend $100M on anyone to gain ground on the Astros.

They need to add enough depth at the top of the roster that guys like Toro and Torrens aren't getting 300 at bats.

I guess I don't really care where the impact bat comes from, I just know that if you completely eliminate SS because you are enamored with JP, for some ungodly reason, you limit the amount of bats you can add. Any lineup with JP in it is going to have a hole in it, because he can't hit, IMO.

As for Toro and Torrens, I'd be happy it they didn't get 100 at bats.

I am not as upset about not over paying for a SS as I am for the reasons why. It's either we are in love with a guy who won one Gold Glove and can't hit a lick, or we can't bring Top FAs here. If #1 is the case, then Jerry is an idiot. If #2 is the reason, then Jerry is an idiot for the move he made two deadlines ago, looking to the future one game out of the WC. Either way, I am growing tired of Dipoto.

IMO, it is all him. He brings in the players, he decides who should play. The entire "process" is Jerry. Part of that process was having the Tight Pants Grunter pitch to Alvorez. Sorry, too soon, but I really do believe more and more that Jerry's fingerprints are on everything. It would be like John Schneider telling Pete Carroll what defense to run. Doesn't make much sense. I think Servais gets a bad rap, and I am becoming more and more afraid that Scot is going to be handcuffed with a below average batting order again.

You follow this more closely than I do, so it actually makes me feel better that you believe there are impact bats we can add in the OF to help us, or that there is an option at 2nd Base better than Frasier, but the more I read the more worried I get. Call it the Mariner fan in me!

Welcome to the Dipoto Is An Idiot Club!

[GL_Storm]

Ok - so stick this in the "WTF --- and monkeys could fly out of my butt" category. But there was an article in the The Athletic the other day about whaty 9 teams could if they wanted to go after Ohtani. I know this will never happen, but since we are all pretty good at suspending disbelief, what do you think of this scenario? As Brock points out, obviously giving up this much to get the Big O would only be worth it if we could immediately sign him to an extension.

I've got my views on whether it's worth going after Ohtani - I am wondering what you all think:

Seattle Mariners

The offer: The Mariners trade RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Chris Flexen, RHP Juan Then, LHP Adam Macko, OF Gabriel Gonzales, OF Kyle Lewis, OF Victor Labrada and IF Tyler Locklear to the Angels for Shohei Ohtani.

This is a quantity over quality (well, in some regards) offer, but that’s not a bad thing — not where the Angels’ farm system is. There are some major league-ready pieces here (Flexen and Lewis) who can step in and help now.

There are also several up-and-coming young players who will help replenish the farm. Hancock, the club’s first-rounder in 2020, is probably the best of the bunch and could contribute in 2023. Don’t sleep on Gonzalez, who hit .321 in two minor league stops as an 18-year-old this season. Hancock and Gonzalez are among the Mariners’ top five prospects.

We know this: The Mariners like Ohtani. Like, a whole lot. They were among the finalists for his services when he was first available. And while we can all agree that the Angels probably should have dealt Ohtani this past summer, it stands to reason the Mariners will put their best foot forward for him when that time arrives.

One important caveat: For the Mariners, this deal is only done with the intention that Ohtani signs a long-term deal with the team. — Corey Brock

The only real question is if the Angels will trade him. If they do, they won't get anything like the package Brock proposed in his article. Here are the reasons why:

1) He's set to make $30 million this year
2) He's about to become a free agent and if the acquiring team want to sign him long term (assuming he'll negotiate in season), the starting price in terms of AAV will be more than Max Scherzer is making.

On point #2 above, there are only a few organizations that can make that kind of commitment for multiple years (lets say 6 years minimum but probably 8 or more), so that limits the teams that would be interested in making that deal in the first place unless someone wanted him strictly as a one year rental. Basically, it's Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and I would bet on the Dodgers because of location. If the Yankees sign Judge, they're probably out on Ohtani. Same with the Dodgers or the Mets. Even the big revenue teams have their limits and I doubt the Mariners want to play in that league. I guess maybe Texas could jump in at some point. Boston probably has the revenues to support a max payroll, but they seem confused about their strategy right now, so I doubt it. I think their golden boy GM is likely to get fired in the next year or two.

I would say, if the Mariners wanted to get in on that and potentially sign him long term, it would be a big organizational decision to dedicate that level of payroll to one player for probably 8 years. Personally, I wouldn't do it. I think that money would be better spent spread around.