Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[D-train]

[D-train]

Ok - so stick this in the "WTF --- and monkeys could fly out of my butt" category. But there was an article in the The Athletic the other day about whaty 9 teams could if they wanted to go after Ohtani. I know this will never happen, but since we are all pretty good at suspending disbelief, what do you think of this scenario? As Brock points out, obviously giving up this much to get the Big O would only be worth it if we could immediately sign him to an extension.

I've got my views on whether it's worth going after Ohtani - I am wondering what you all think:

Seattle Mariners

The offer: The Mariners trade RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Chris Flexen, RHP Juan Then, LHP Adam Macko, OF Gabriel Gonzales, OF Kyle Lewis, OF Victor Labrada and IF Tyler Locklear to the Angels for Shohei Ohtani.

This is a quantity over quality (well, in some regards) offer, but that’s not a bad thing — not where the Angels’ farm system is. There are some major league-ready pieces here (Flexen and Lewis) who can step in and help now.

There are also several up-and-coming young players who will help replenish the farm. Hancock, the club’s first-rounder in 2020, is probably the best of the bunch and could contribute in 2023. Don’t sleep on Gonzalez, who hit .321 in two minor league stops as an 18-year-old this season. Hancock and Gonzalez are among the Mariners’ top five prospects.

We know this: The Mariners like Ohtani. Like, a whole lot. They were among the finalists for his services when he was first available. And while we can all agree that the Angels probably should have dealt Ohtani this past summer, it stands to reason the Mariners will put their best foot forward for him when that time arrives.

One important caveat: For the Mariners, this deal is only done with the intention that Ohtani signs a long-term deal with the team. — Corey Brock

Why don't we just trade Jed Jetsam and and Fred Flotsam for Ohtani>

[D-train]

In the Morosi interview Dtrain posted above, Dipoto points out that they recognize they need to add "impact" and are looking to do so in the corner outfield. I would expect they will prioritize defense and OBP at 2B because that can be accomplished for $10M or less instead of $200M for one of the star SS's, and add the impact players in the corner outfield.

If they pulled off an under the radar offseason where the upgrades were Kolten Wong and Hunter Renfroe, then they also bring back Mitch Haniger, it would make for a deep lineup without any flashy moves.

As much as we'd love to see it, we don't need to spend $100M on anyone to gain ground on the Astros.

They need to add enough depth at the top of the roster that guys like Toro and Torrens aren't getting 300 at bats.

I guess I don't really care where the impact bat comes from, I just know that if you completely eliminate SS because you are enamored with JP, for some ungodly reason, you limit the amount of bats you can add. Any lineup with JP in it is going to have a hole in it, because he can't hit, IMO.

As for Toro and Torrens, I'd be happy it they didn't get 100 at bats.

I am not as upset about not over paying for a SS as I am for the reasons why. It's either we are in love with a guy who won one Gold Glove and can't hit a lick, or we can't bring Top FAs here. If #1 is the case, then Jerry is an idiot. If #2 is the reason, then Jerry is an idiot for the move he made two deadlines ago, looking to the future one game out of the WC. Either way, I am growing tired of Dipoto.

IMO, it is all him. He brings in the players, he decides who should play. The entire "process" is Jerry. Part of that process was having the Tight Pants Grunter pitch to Alvorez. Sorry, too soon, but I really do believe more and more that Jerry's fingerprints are on everything. It would be like John Schneider telling Pete Carroll what defense to run. Doesn't make much sense. I think Servais gets a bad rap, and I am becoming more and more afraid that Scot is going to be handcuffed with a below average batting order again.

You follow this more closely than I do, so it actually makes me feel better that you believe there are impact bats we can add in the OF to help us, or that there is an option at 2nd Base better than Frasier, but the more I read the more worried I get. Call it the Mariner fan in me!

Welcome to the Dipoto Is An Idiot Club!

[D-train]

[Michael K.]

Welcome to the Dipoto Is An Idiot Club!

Thanks! I am starting to get the feeling the Club isn't that exclusive!

[D-train]

Welcome to the Dipoto Is An Idiot Club!

Thanks! I am starting to get the feeling the Club isn't that exclusive!

There's a three year waiting list!

[D-train]

1st Trade!

[D-train]

Wyoming's finest. Baseball player.

[harmony]

What is the trade value of Seattle righthander Chris Flexen? Baseball Trade Values is not generous in its valuation:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/44181/

But FanGraphs projects free agent righthander Taijuan Walker with a three-year contract between $39 million and $42 million:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/

Columnist Tim Britton at The Athletic projects Walker with a four-year, $56 million contract:

https://theathletic.com/3764820/2022/11 ... -pitchers/

Compare the statistics over the past two seasons for Walker and Flexen (who is two years younger than Walker):

TW 316.1 IP, 59 G, 58 GS, 3.98 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 99 ERA+, 3.2 bWAR, 3.9 fWAR
CF 317.1 IP, 64 G, 53 GS, 3.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 108 ERA+, 4.7 bWAR, 3.7 fWAR

Despite those numbers the modest projections for Walker and Flexen are kinder to Walker:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/taiju ... position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris ... position=P

Flexen's unusual contract calls for a vested 2023 salary of $8 million in his third year of MLB service. That's an unusually high salary for a player who otherwise would be a Super Two. If in fact Flexen remains under team control through 2026, Flexen's final three arbitration seasons become costly working off that $8 million salary.

Still, a trade for Flexen could be an attractive alternative to a multiyear contract to Walker.

[D-train]

What is the trade value of Seattle righthander Chris Flexen? Baseball Trade Values is not generous in its valuation:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/44181/

But FanGraphs projects free agent righthander Taijuan Walker with a three-year contract between $39 million and $42 million:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/

Columnist Tim Britton at The Athletic projects Walker with a four-year, $56 million contract:

https://theathletic.com/3764820/2022/11 ... -pitchers/

Compare the statistics over the past two seasons for Walker and Flexen (who is two years younger than Walker):

TW 316.1 IP, 59 G, 58 GS, 3.98 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 99 ERA+, 3.2 bWAR, 3.9 fWAR
CF 317.1 IP, 64 G, 53 GS, 3.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 108 ERA+, 4.7 bWAR, 3.7 fWAR

Despite those numbers the modest projections for Walker and Flexen are kinder to Walker:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/taiju ... position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris ... position=P

Flexen's unusual contract calls for a vested 2023 salary of $8 million in his third year of MLB service. That's an unusually high salary for a player who otherwise would be a Super Two. If in fact Flexen remains under team control through 2026, Flexen's final three arbitration seasons become costly working off that $8 million salary.

Still, a trade for Flexen could be an attractive alternative to a multiyear contract to Walker.

Great stuff Doug!