Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Which Mariner prospect was or has been the most disappointing?

Justin Smoak
1
4%
Dustin Ackley
11
41%
Jesus Montero
4
15%
Evan White
1
4%
Jarred Kelenic
10
37%
 
Total votes: 27

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Donn Beach
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Re: Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Post by Donn Beach » Wed May 25, 2022 2:14 am

Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Wed May 25, 2022 1:07 am
Michael K. wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 7:28 pm
No Jeremy Reed? What about the Clement kid that was supposed to be a middle of the order bat at Catcher?
Was Reed a highly regarded prospect? Don't remember much about him. Clement is one of several catchers including Zunino and another guy i forgot from about 12 years ago.
Reed was probably like Kyle Lewis like terms of hype

GL_Storm
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Re: Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Post by GL_Storm » Wed May 25, 2022 2:22 am

Donn Beach wrote:
Wed May 25, 2022 1:55 am
GL_Storm wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 9:31 pm
Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 2:22 pm
The main frustration with White of course being the money he's getting paid. Montero was touted as the next great Yankee slugger or some such nonsense that only seems to work on Mariner GMs. And Smoak was highly regarded in the Rangers organization, why i don't know.
The sucky thing is that anyone that followed prospects knew Montero wasn't going to catch and there were doubts his bat would play at the ML level.
Doubts about his bat? He was compared to Migel Cabrera
By some, yes. It wasn't unanimous. The Yankees kept trying to make him a catcher, but it doesn't make sense to do that if you think his bat is truly elite. The only answer is they had doubts about his bat at the ML level and if it would play as a 1B/DH. He played almost 2 full seasons at AAA, as a catcher.

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Donn Beach
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Re: Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Post by Donn Beach » Wed May 25, 2022 3:09 am

Here is actually I think a pretty good look at him from Dave Cameron, it's interesting. There was plenty of doubt about his defensive abilities but his hit tool was supposed to make up for it. He was considered an elite prospect solely on his hit tool. Cameron goes into the risks of that, focusing on his ceiling as opposed to considering more his floor.
.Over the last couple of years, I’ve expressed an amount of skepticism relating to Jesus Montero’s status as an elite prospect. Essentially, my argument has been that since Montero is likely to be the kind of player who produces all of his value at the plate, he’s going to have to develop into a monster hitter to justify the expectations placed upon him. For bat-only players, the offensive bar to become a superstar is extremely high, so Montero would have to become one of the very best hitters in baseball to be a truly elite player.

The counterpoint has usually been that Montero is going to become one of those hitters, with scouts comparing his offensive profile to Mike Piazza and Miguel Cabrera, among others. He’s extremely strong, he’s got pretty good plate coverage, and he’s held his own in the minors while being pushed aggressively up through the minor leagues. Several of the game’s best hitters had very similar development paths, and it’s clear that Montero could develop into that kind of offensive force. Given what the Mariners paid to get him, they’re clearly hoping for that outcome.

Still, Cabrera and Piazza are Montero’s ceiling – the best possible outcome if he continues to develop, stays healthy, and maximizes his physical abilities – but projecting a player solely based on upside will often lead you astray. In evaluating Montero as an offensive prospect, we need to not only know what his ceiling would be, but the range of potential outcomes and the likelihood of each one coming to pass. To find a more complete picture of what a Montero-style hitting prospect usually turns into, we turn to history and the lessons of players who were lauded in similar ways as Montero is now.
This is some players Dave came up with as possible floor comps. The deal wasn't about his floor, he couldn't hit at all
. Ranging from Paul Konerko (121 wRC+) and Shawn Green (119 wRC+) on the high side to Hank Blalock (100 wRC+) and Vernon Wells (105 wRC+) on the low side, these guys all turned into good-but-not-great hitters, and it mostly had to do with their ability to control the strike zone.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jesus-monte ... im-garcia/

GL_Storm
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Re: Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Post by GL_Storm » Wed May 25, 2022 4:25 am

Jack Z. must have felt like he was cursed. First Ackley doesn't work out, then Hultzen never gets healthy, then Montero is a complete disaster and you have to rush Mike Zunino to the major leagues.

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D-train
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Re: Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Post by D-train » Wed May 25, 2022 12:02 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Wed May 25, 2022 4:25 am
Jack Z. must have felt like he was cursed. First Ackley doesn't work out, then Hultzen never gets healthy, then Montero is a complete disaster and you have to rush Mike Zunino to the major leagues.
Yes, I have had that feeling as well as a fan of this team for over 45 years...
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Post by Donn Beach » Wed May 25, 2022 1:55 pm

It's all about not drafting Trout but Ackerly wasn't chopped liver. He was considered the best college hitter ever. And then we get Montero and that over reliance on hit tool. Okay, let's go balance, trade for JK and his balance of tools that are compared to Mike Trout...go figure

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D-train
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Re: Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Post by D-train » Wed May 25, 2022 2:36 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Wed May 25, 2022 1:55 pm
It's all about not drafting Trout but Ackerly wasn't chopped liver. He was considered the best college hitter ever. And then we get Montero and that over reliance on hit tool. Okay, let's go balance, trade for JK and his balance of tools that are compared to Mike Trout...go figure
Great news from AAA. JK did not strike out and Evan White had a single. Now hitting .083 (1-12)
dt

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Wed May 25, 2022 2:37 pm

The main issue with these guys is mental and that's where the scouting has failed. They keep going after guys that rake at lower levels but who can't or won't make adjustments once they hit the majors. Of course bad coaching plays a role as well no doubt.

Michael K.
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Re: Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Post by Michael K. » Wed May 25, 2022 2:38 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Wed May 25, 2022 4:25 am
Jack Z. must have felt like he was cursed. First Ackley doesn't work out, then Hultzen never gets healthy, then Montero is a complete disaster and you have to rush Mike Zunino to the major leagues.
The biggest one of all is probably winning two meaningless games against the A's and ending up with Ackley because we lost the #1 pick. Seems that Pitcher we missed out on turned out pretty damn good?

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Poll: most disappointing Mariners prospect

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Wed May 25, 2022 2:51 pm

Michael K. wrote:
Wed May 25, 2022 2:38 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Wed May 25, 2022 4:25 am
Jack Z. must have felt like he was cursed. First Ackley doesn't work out, then Hultzen never gets healthy, then Montero is a complete disaster and you have to rush Mike Zunino to the major leagues.
The biggest one of all is probably winning two meaningless games against the A's and ending up with Ackley because we lost the #1 pick. Seems that Pitcher we missed out on turned out pretty damn good?
Come on dude what kind of message would that send to thd team if you don't do everything possible to win every game even meaningless ones in a lost season? I mean the players might take that as a sign that they're playing for a loser organization that doesn't give a fuck about winning championships. :roll:

:lol:

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