2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

[Donn Beach]

Little O had career OPS of .688...I will go with gold gloves

[IStillLoveTheMs]

Like with White we are supposed to ignore that because they both won Gold Gloves. Just noticed his home away splits were crazy.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... r=2020&t=b

I've got much more faith in White because at least he hits the ball hard on occasion and put up a nice OPS SEASON.

Crawford had a career .760 OPS in the minors... his best stint was a 40 games stretch in rookie ball or he's always been right at .800 or far below.

FWIW this year Evan White posted an OPS of .599 from a corner infield slot while J.P. Crawford posted an OPS of .674 as a shortstop.

FWIW... Crawford has 218 career games, 853 career AB's AND 2,645 AB's in the minors.

White has 212 AB's and 1,011 AB's in the minors.

Comparing what White did in a 60-game season to what Crawford has done in his career is a joke.

Not to mention that White suffered a horrifically unlucky BABIP of .264 despite being in the top 5% of MLB hitters in hard-hit-ball percentage. He's traditionally around .350 which would raise his .avg and OPS exponentially if he simply gets a bit luckier in 2021. JP Crawford on the other hand, is in the bottom 10% of hard-hit-ball percentage, he was in the bottom 6% in 2019, and his BABIP has always stuck solidly around .290... something tells me he's going to stay there. JP has to prove he can hit the ball a lot harder to keep pace with his counterparts in this league.

Also, I'm not sure OBP is something to gloat over unless it's somewhere in the ballpark of .350 and he finished dead last among qualified SS's with a .338 slugging %. 10x shortstops finished with an OPS of .796 or higher. 9x shortstops finished with a higher OBP than him. 6x with a OBP over .350. Also, if we're going to talk OBP... 6 stolen bags projecting to 17 or 18 over the course of a full season for a light-hitting SS is weak at best. In the minors, JP only had 71 stolen bags in 956 hit or walk opportunities... that's 1 stolen bag every 13 times on base.

So what have we established? JP hits the ball soft, is doomed for a low BABIP as a result, isn't a great base stealer, has no power but he plays good defense and walks at an OK rate. Is that really what championship caliber teams run at SS? Idk.

Also, if JP ends up being the 9 hitter on this roster... fine... I can live with that... but pretending he's a leadoff hitter makes me laugh.

[Donn Beach]

Omar would generally bat 2nd I believe

[IStillLoveTheMs]

Omar would generally bat 2nd I believe

Yeah well it's not 1995. Pretty sure the Joey Cora's of the world wouldn't make it in today's MLB. Sacrifice hits and drag bunts aren't really what you're asking out of your no. 2 hitter anymore.

If JP isn't hitting to a .750 OPS in his prime, he's not worth the spot on a contending baseball team.

[IStillLoveTheMs]

@Donn replying to your deleted comment

I think prime Omar could play in today's game because he's a significantly better fielder than Crawford. His style of hitting was also far different than Crawford's... Vizquel put the ball in play and was a good situational hitter which was better for the more strategic style of baseball that previously existed. Maybe if Crawford followed that route instead of wildly hacking at everything he'd be a better hitter.

That said, the M's can't afford to have JP Crawford put up Omar-like hitting numbers his first 5 years in the league. Omar was frankly a terrible baseball player until he got to Cleveland... the M's can't wait that long on JP if they want to contend soon. Not to mention that Omar is borderline the best defensive player the game has ever seen... Crawford's gotta prove he can do that for a number of years going forward before you can even mention them in the same breath.

Also, I don't think the 2021-2025 M's care all that much if JP finally figures it out by 2030 for some other team like Omar did with the bat.

[Donn Beach]

yeah guess with analytics, the shift and high strike out rate, you can play anybody at SS these days, they should try France there

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/3/26 ... rey-seager

[IStillLoveTheMs]

yeah guess with analytics, the shift and high strike out rate, you can play anybody at SS these days, they should try France there

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/3/26 ... rey-seager

Yeah I mean, hopefully you can get both. Which is why I was begging for a Lindor deal.

I don't see many holes in the M's lineup going forward except for SS and C... so I wanted to see those filled with better hitters by the time we think we're competing.

[Donn Beach]

but if you no longer need premium defense then why pay for it, put France there and invest in high strike out pitching, seriously, do it

[Donn Beach]

So flexible is modern defensive philosophy that some players with no meaningful experience are moving to shortstop at the MLB level, in a reverse of the traditional slide down the defensive spectrum. The Cardinals’ Paul DeJong played second, third, catcher, and right field but not shortstop in his final college season at Illinois State, and he played almost exclusively as a third baseman—where he was listed upon being drafted—through his first two minor league seasons. Then he began playing short full time at Triple-A, and, through two seasons in the majors, he has not only impressed with the bat (44 career homers and a 112 OPS+) but graded as an astonishingly good defender as well. To date, he’s the only “third baseman” picked in the 2015 draft who’s debuted in the majors.

[IStillLoveTheMs]

but if you no longer need premium defense then why pay for it, put France there and invest in high strike out pitching, seriously, do it

Well that's assuming France is a quality hitter. That much remains to be seen...

Which goes back to my original statement that it's a joke to think the M's compete this year.

I mean seriously... how on earth are we a competitive team when our only proven vet is Kyle Seager?

If the M's went out and spent $50 million on a couple veteran studs I'd say yes...