2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

[harmony]

I've got much more faith in White because at least he hits the ball hard on occasion and put up a nice OPS SEASON.

Crawford had a career .760 OPS in the minors... his best stint was a 40 games stretch in rookie ball or he's always been right at .800 or far below.

FWIW this year Evan White posted an OPS of .599 from a corner infield slot while J.P. Crawford posted an OPS of .674 as a shortstop.

FWIW... Crawford has 218 career games, 853 career AB's AND 2,645 AB's in the minors.

White has 212 AB's and 1,011 AB's in the minors.

Comparing what White did in a 60-game season to what Crawford has done in his career is a joke.

Not to mention that White suffered a horrifically unlucky BABIP of .264 despite being in the top 5% of MLB hitters in hard-hit-ball percentage. He's traditionally around .350 which would raise his .avg and OPS exponentially if he simply gets a bit luckier in 2021. JP Crawford on the other hand, is in the bottom 10% of hard-hit-ball percentage, he was in the bottom 6% in 2019, and his BABIP has always stuck solidly around .290... something tells me he's going to stay there. JP has to prove he can hit the ball a lot harder to keep pace with his counterparts in this league.

Also, I'm not sure OBP is something to gloat over unless it's somewhere in the ballpark of .350 and he finished dead last among qualified SS's with a .338 slugging %. 10x shortstops finished with an OPS of .796 or higher. 9x shortstops finished with a higher OBP than him. 6x with a OBP over .350. Also, if we're going to talk OBP... 6 stolen bags projecting to 17 or 18 over the course of a full season for a light-hitting SS is weak at best. In the minors, JP only had 71 stolen bags in 956 hit or walk opportunities... that's 1 stolen bag every 13 times on base.

So what have we established? JP hits the ball soft, is doomed for a low BABIP as a result, isn't a great base stealer, has no power but he plays good defense and walks at an OK rate. Is that really what championship caliber teams run at SS? Idk.

Also, if JP ends up being the 9 hitter on this roster... fine... I can live with that... but pretending he's a leadoff hitter makes me laugh.

The comparison was of Evan White's "nice OPS SEASON" with J.P. Crawford's OPS in the exact same season.

Fans love to hate.

[IStillLoveTheMs]

FWIW this year Evan White posted an OPS of .599 from a corner infield slot while J.P. Crawford posted an OPS of .674 as a shortstop.

FWIW... Crawford has 218 career games, 853 career AB's AND 2,645 AB's in the minors.

White has 212 AB's and 1,011 AB's in the minors.

Comparing what White did in a 60-game season to what Crawford has done in his career is a joke.

Not to mention that White suffered a horrifically unlucky BABIP of .264 despite being in the top 5% of MLB hitters in hard-hit-ball percentage. He's traditionally around .350 which would raise his .avg and OPS exponentially if he simply gets a bit luckier in 2021. JP Crawford on the other hand, is in the bottom 10% of hard-hit-ball percentage, he was in the bottom 6% in 2019, and his BABIP has always stuck solidly around .290... something tells me he's going to stay there. JP has to prove he can hit the ball a lot harder to keep pace with his counterparts in this league.

Also, I'm not sure OBP is something to gloat over unless it's somewhere in the ballpark of .350 and he finished dead last among qualified SS's with a .338 slugging %. 10x shortstops finished with an OPS of .796 or higher. 9x shortstops finished with a higher OBP than him. 6x with a OBP over .350. Also, if we're going to talk OBP... 6 stolen bags projecting to 17 or 18 over the course of a full season for a light-hitting SS is weak at best. In the minors, JP only had 71 stolen bags in 956 hit or walk opportunities... that's 1 stolen bag every 13 times on base.

So what have we established? JP hits the ball soft, is doomed for a low BABIP as a result, isn't a great base stealer, has no power but he plays good defense and walks at an OK rate. Is that really what championship caliber teams run at SS? Idk.

Also, if JP ends up being the 9 hitter on this roster... fine... I can live with that... but pretending he's a leadoff hitter makes me laugh.

The comparison was of Evan White's "nice OPS SEASON" with J.P. Crawford's OPS in the exact same season.

Fans love to hate.

I was talking about his .838 OPS season he put up in the minors in 2019. Not to mention his .824 OPS season he put up in 2018. I understand his 60-game stretch as a rookie wasn't good... but I see much better tools as a hitter than him compared to JP Crawford.

Crawford hasn't had a "nice" OPS season in the majors. His best OPS season in the minors was .793 years ago and he's a .760 career OPS hitter in the minors which is pretty sad. 2 of his final 3 seasons w. the Phillies org in AAA saw seasons of a .688 and .656 OPS. Evan White didn't come close to that in his minor league career which tells me his 2020 60-game stint isn't who he truly is. Crawford has told us who he is with a bat since 2017.

[Donn Beach]

they should try White at SS

[IStillLoveTheMs]

they should try White at SS

No they should build a roster complete with talent who can both hit and field at a high level.

I get that you're trolling... idk why.

But if JP Crawford turns into something to be proud of with a bat in his hands I'll eat my crow and have second helpings. There's just no way.

LF: Jared Kelenic
CF: Kyle Lewis
RF: Mitch Haniger
3B: Kyle Seager
SS:
2B: Dylan Moore
1B:
C:

There's our holes when you consider position players who can do both. I see White turning it around. But why not spend the copious amounts of money we have to solidify Catcher, SS and potentially DH given that we've already spent the money on White?

[harmony]

Evan White and J.P. Crawford (who is only 15 months older than White) should play important roles in the Mariners' future as they remain under team control for eight years (including three team options) and four years, respectively.

Steamer and ZiPS project White with 2021 WAR of 0.6 in 146 games and a negative 0.4 in 103 games while projecting Crawford with 2021 WAR of 2.5 in 150 games and 1.8 in 126 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/evan- ... osition=1B

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jp-cr ... osition=SS

[Donn Beach]

not trolling, trying to think outside the box, I don't think JP is going to be a better hitter than Omar, and the position has changed. You don't need Omars. Find a guy and make him a SS, its what teams are doing these days. Dipoto wants to be cutting edge, do it

[Donn Beach]

they got Perry Hill at coach, be like Cable making an OL, it be interesting thing to try

[IStillLoveTheMs]

Evan White and J.P. Crawford (who is only 15 months older than White) should play important roles in the Mariners' future as they remain under team control for eight years (including three team options) and four years, respectively.

Steamer and ZiPS project White with 2021 WAR of 0.6 in 146 games and a negative 0.4 in 103 games while projecting Crawford with 2021 WAR of 2.5 in 150 games and 1.8 in 126 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/evan- ... osition=1B

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jp-cr ... osition=SS

Why should I care what Zips says?

Their projections mean nothing lol... it's not predictive of anything. Zips doesn't know fuck about 2021. They probably give all rookies who struggle their first year a modest projection. I doubt they predicted Lewis's year last year. They think Haniger is going to dip all the way to a .228 avg and .750 OPS despite far exceeding that years prior.

The M's do not anticipate White being a .718 OPS hitter... they wouldn't have paid him his contract if they saw him as such. If he continues to be that bad, we've got a problem but he's got the tools as a hitter and JP doesn't.

Defensive WAR at SS is also overrated as fuck and is the only reason JP's head is even above water. He can't hit and is a magnificent hole in our lineup. I don't anticipate White being so going forward.

[harmony]

they should try White at SS

No they should build a roster complete with talent who can both hit and field at a high level.

I get that you're trolling... idk why.

But if JP Crawford turns into something to be proud of with a bat in his hands I'll eat my crow and have second helpings. There's just no way.

LF: Jared Kelenic
CF: Kyle Lewis
RF: Mitch Haniger
3B: Kyle Seager
SS:
2B: Dylan Moore
1B:
C:

There's our holes when you consider position players who can do both. I see White turning it around. But why not spend the copious amounts of money we have to solidify Catcher, SS and potentially DH given that we've already spent the money on White?

With good reason we all delighted in Dylan Moore's breakout season of 38 games this year but Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel project Moore with 2021 OBP of .299. .288 and .325 as Moore approaches his 29th birthday in August. Steamer and ZiPS project Moore, who is two-and-a-half years older than J.P. Crawford, with 2021 WAR of 0.6 in 131 games and 0.0 in 74 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan ... osition=OF

[IStillLoveTheMs]

they should try White at SS

No they should build a roster complete with talent who can both hit and field at a high level.

I get that you're trolling... idk why.

But if JP Crawford turns into something to be proud of with a bat in his hands I'll eat my crow and have second helpings. There's just no way.

LF: Jared Kelenic
CF: Kyle Lewis
RF: Mitch Haniger
3B: Kyle Seager
SS:
2B: Dylan Moore
1B:
C:

There's our holes when you consider position players who can do both. I see White turning it around. But why not spend the copious amounts of money we have to solidify Catcher, SS and potentially DH given that we've already spent the money on White?

With good reason we all delighted in Dylan Moore's breakout season of 38 games this year but Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel project Moore with 2021 OBP of .299. .288 and .325 as Moore approaches his 29th birthday in August. Steamer and ZiPS project Moore, who is two-and-a-half years older than J.P. Crawford, with 2021 WAR of 0.6 in 131 games and 0.0 in 74 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan ... osition=OF

Ok? And?

That should probably tell you Zips is full of shit and they're not predicting anything worth reading.

Zips doesn't take tools and potential into account. If you listened to Zips and only Zips, all players who aren't 5-year vets with consistent years over .800 are destined to be shitty ballplayers. That's not how this works.