2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

[D-train]

This is relevant to the Moore half of the discussion:

By Ryan Divish
Seattle Times staff reporter
Compared with the 20 years of struggles to find a competent and productive starting left fielder, or the failures at shortstop after the departure of Alex Rodriguez, or the recent revolving door at first base, the Mariners’ instability and inconsistency at second base is far less dramatic.

But that doesn’t mean it’s been a position of great production since Bret Boone in 2001. Jose Lopez took over in 2006 and slowly ate and played his way to third base and out of MLB. Chone Figgins played an entire season in 2010 and like all of his time in Seattle, it was a disappointment. Dustin Ackley, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2009 draft, was supposed to hold the position for years. Instead, he played only one full season at second base in 2012.

The Mariners outbid themselves to sign Robinson Cano to a 10-year, $240 million contract in the 2013 offseason, but also locked in a player seemingly destined for the Hall of Fame for a decade. That lasted for four largely productive seasons, 2014-2017. But the combination of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs during the 2018 season, the Mariners’ decision to gut the MLB roster to start a rebuild and the short-lived tenure of Brodie Van Wagenen — Cano’s former agent — as the Mets general manager led to an improbable trade. Cano and his albatross of a contract were sent to New York in a megadeal.

Seattle Mariners’ Evan White hits a single during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres Sunday, Sept. 20, 2020, in San Diego. (Denis Poroy / The Associated Press)
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Seattle hoped Dee Strange-Gordon would play himself into a trade in 2019. Injuries prevented that possibility.

Last season, the Mariners gave Shed Long Jr. the everyday job based on a strong finish to the 2019 season. Midway through the shortened 2020 season, Long, who was battling a shin injury and struggling at the plate, lost the job.

Now it appears Seattle will give Dylan Moore every chance to capitalize on a strong 2020 and take over at second base entering next season.

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Is he ready to be an everyday player at one position instead of a versatile utility player that can play anywhere?

Looking back at 2020: Moore showed up to 2020 spring training with an extra 15 pounds of muscle on his frame and was noticeably driving balls with authority. He had spent the offseason getting stronger while retooling his swing in an effort to alleviate some of his swing-and-miss issues.

As a rookie in 2019, he played 113 games, starting 67 of them, playing every position but catcher, while posting a .206/.302/.389 slash line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with 14 doubles, two triples, nine homers and 28 RBI. But he struck out in 33% of his plate appearances, swinging and missing too much on hittable pitches early in counts.

“I wanted create more consistent contact and more room for error in my swing — more contact points,” he said. “Creating less swing and miss.”

But when the season restarted in July after the COVID-19 shutdown, Moore wasn’t able to join teammates. An asymptomatic positive test forced him to quarantine per protocols. It also caused him to miss all but the last four days of workouts and intrasquad games.

Moore didn’t play until Seattle’s fifth game of the season, starting in left field against the Angels. He went 2 for 3 with a double and a run scored. He started the next night and tallied two more hits, including a three-run homer in a 10-7 Mariners victory.

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One of manager Scott Servais’ basic philosophies is “if you hit, you’ll play.”

Moore kept hitting and playing. Over his first 20 games, he posted a .297/.381/.568 slash line with five doubles, five homers, 10 RBI, seven walks, 23 strikeouts and six stolen bases.

A sprained right wrist and trip to the injured list delayed his torrid production for 10 games.

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Moore returned to play 17 more games, posting a .220/.352/.441 slash line with four doubles, three homers, seven RBI, seven walks, 18 strikeouts, five hit-by-pitches and six stolen bases. One of those hit by pitches was a fastball to the helmet on Sept. 20 that eventually landed him on the seven-day concussion list and ended his season.

General manager Jerry Dipoto called it a “breakout” season for Moore while Servais lauded his performance at the plate, particularly how hard he was hitting the ball.

Per MLB Statcast, he had an average exit velocity of 90.4 mph on balls put in play, which was second-highest on the team. Of the 94 balls in play, 42 had exit velocities of 95 mph or higher. He had a 39.4 Sweet Spot percentage, which measures balls hit with a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees.

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He was second on the Mariners with a 13.8 barrel percentage compared with a 6.5 barrel percentage in 2019.

A ball in play is considered a “barrel” when it reaches an exit velocity of at least 98 mph and has a launch angle between 26 and 30 degrees. And this scale slides by exit velocity gain. For every 1 mph increase in exit velocity, the range of the launch angle expands to be considered a barrel. So a ball that has a 99 mph exit velocity achieves barrel if the launch angle is between 25 and 31 degrees.

“I’ve been letting the barrel get through the zone with more power,” Moore said during the season. “It’s been jumping (off the bat). I’m fine with it wherever it goes out on the field. But it seems like right now I’m trying to hit it over there (right-center). And if I can hit it out anywhere, it’s great.”

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Offseason focus: Moore knows the starting second-base job is now his to lose. Technically, he will compete with Long for the starting job. But judging from what Servais and Dipoto have said, Moore will have the first opportunity.

“There’s always competition for playing time, I think we’ve got really good options,” Servais said recently via video call. “At this time a year ago, we were committing to Shed, and we were gonna give him everyday at-bats, which is what we did. He didn’t make adjustments, really never got going offensively. As we look forward, Dylan Moore had an outstanding offensive season. We’ll give both the guys reps in spring training and we’ll see how it plays out.”

But …

“Dylan had a really awesome offensive year,” Servais said. “When you look at our team, we play really well when we score about four or five runs a game and we win a lot of games. The offense is a big part of it. And Dylan has been more consistent at the plate throughout last season. Both will get chances in spring training to play a bunch, you have to see how it plays out. But Dylan has earned the right to get more regular time at second base.”

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Moore must continue to focus on the swing changes he made in 2020, limiting the swing-and-miss issues while driving the ball with authority to the gaps. Teams will attack him differently. Most of his production came off hammering fastballs. He’s likely to see fewer in 2021.

But the biggest improvement must come from his defense. He’s a competent second baseman and more than athletic enough to handle the duties. But the Mariners need something more than competent on defense. A major focus has been placed on run prevention. His footwork on double plays needs work, his consistency when making defensive plays from the shift must improve and routine plays must be made.

A look ahead to 2021: The Mariners used Long’s strong finish to the 2019 season — roughly 25 games — as a reason to give him the second-base job before 2020 spring training even started. Now it appears Moore’s 38 games in 2020 have provided the Mariners enough reason to give him the job in 2021.

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Neither Dipoto nor Servais are being quite as decisively verbose about Moore taking it, but it’s clear they want to give him every opportunity to make it his own.

Realistically, the Mariners might be a better overall team if Long figured out his hitting issues and regained the job at second base, allowing Moore to move back to the super-utility role where he would play almost daily and provide the most value.

But Moore has always believed he was an everyday player being asked to fill a utility role. Now, he’s being given the opportunity to prove it.

[D-train]

Here is Divish's assessment of JP's future with the M's.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mar ... he-future/

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski has released his 2021 ZiPS projections for the Seattle Mariners:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-p ... -mariners/

[D-train]

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski has released his 2021 ZiPS projections for the Seattle Mariners:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-p ... -mariners/

That was both in excellent and profoundly disturbing read. Thanks for posting.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski has released his 2021 ZiPS projections for the Seattle Mariners:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-p ... -mariners/

That was both in excellent and profoundly disturbing read. Thanks for posting.

I’m not sure that the veterans bridge here is high enough to get to terminal velocity...I might have to drive to Tacoma.......

Does anyone here get the sneaking suspicion that Jerry considers himself a Billybean genius kind of baseball god who can find the unknown gems like Evan White and then double down on his stupidity.........

[D-train]

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski has released his 2021 ZiPS projections for the Seattle Mariners:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-p ... -mariners/

That was both in excellent and profoundly disturbing read. Thanks for posting.

I’m not sure that the veterans bridge here is high enough to get to terminal velocity...I might have to drive to Tacoma.......

Does anyone here get the sneaking suspicion that Jerry considers himself a Billybean genius kind of baseball god who can find the unknown gems like Evan White and then double down on his stupidity.........

Yes

[bpj]

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski has released his 2021 ZiPS projections for the Seattle Mariners:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-p ... -mariners/

That was both in excellent and profoundly disturbing read. Thanks for posting.

I’m not sure that the veterans bridge here is high enough to get to terminal velocity...I might have to drive to Tacoma.......

Does anyone here get the sneaking suspicion that Jerry considers himself a Billybean genius kind of baseball god who can find the unknown gems like Evan White and then double down on his stupidity.........

That's exactly Dipotos problem.

Have a $25M second baseman that hits like a LF giving them a yuge competitive advantage / Proceeds to sign a LF that hits like a 2B because "muh defense", erasing the advantage

Might as well sign a LF that hits like a LF and a 2B that hits like a 2B for $10M total and get the same production.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

That just sounds like the Mariners organization MO for the last 20 yrs.......

Our gaping glaring obvious holes seem to move around the diamond. Evidently we are not ready to patch anything this yr either....

[bpj]

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski has released his 2021 ZiPS projections for the Seattle Mariners:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-p ... -mariners/

That was both in excellent and profoundly disturbing read. Thanks for posting.

Seems to fit our fears for Evan White. *confirmation bias alert

If I'm the Mariners he can have the first half of the season to improve. After that he's Smoak/Ackley to me until he forces his way out of AAA.

Of any position on the field, 1B is the last one you can try and get cute and go with defense over offense.

A bat isn't optional at 1B on a good team.

Defense is always optional because the delta between "average defender " and "elite defender" is very very small in terms of actual runs saved.

The only equation that matters is (how many runs your bat creates + how many your glove saves). A good bat puts way more runs on the board than a good glove saves because you're talking 600 plate appearances compared to the extra 10 plays an elite defender MAY make in the field.

[Lamda]

Bauer wants 35 mill or more per year - worth it? Is he a legit #1 Ace? Is it time to get one? As we have stated - its about time to start spending money and not waiting till some grandiose time where the good players may not be available.