So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

[Seattle or Bust]

If free agent hitters won't come to Seattle, the Mariners may need to thin out the farm to fill out the lineup while staying within the rumored budget.

To that end, let's exam trades based on Baseball Trade Values values (listed in parentheses in millions of dollars from that player's most recent BTV trade):

2B Ryan Bliss (14.5)
OF Jonny Farmelo (21.7)
Total surplus value (36.2)

to Tampa Bay for

2B Brandon Lowe (13.7) [$10.5 million in 2025, $11.5 million club option in 2025 with $500,000 buyout]
1B Yandy Diaz (23.4) [$10 million in 2025, $12 millon club option in 2026 with no buyout]
Total surplus value (37.1)

The Rays get a high-ceiling outfield prospect and an infield replacement while shedding their two highest salaries.

C Harry Ford (19.5)
3B Ben Williamson (7.0)
Total surplus value (26.5)

to Philadelphia for

3B Alec Bohm (25.5) [projected 2025 salary of $8.1 million with two years of team control]
Total surplus value (25.5)

The Phillies groom a replacement for J.T. Realmuto and get a lottery ticket at third base (while reducing their luxury tax)

SS Michael Arroyo (13.7)
OF Mitch Haniger (-15.5) [$17.5 million in 2025 plus $1 million assignment bonus]
Round A Comp Balance Pick (4.4)
Total surplus value (2.6)

to Colorado for

Round B Comp Balance Pick (2.0)
Total surplus value (2.0)

Much like the Atlanta Braves taking on salary to acquire Jarred Kelenic, the Rockies pay $15+ million for the rights to promising shortstop prospect Michael Arroyo (and to move up in the draft).

Diaz, Lowe and Bohm have a combined 2025 salary of $28.6 million with team control through 2026 (but no guaranteed commitment for 2026).

The Mariners would take on Haniger's $1 million assignment bonus but subtract his disputed 2025 salary of $15.5 million to $17.5 million.

The net result would get the Mariners within the $16 million the team reportedly has to spend this offseason. The M's might have a few million left over for a bullpen arm or two.

The lineups (banking on a bounceback from J.P. Crawford):

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Luke Raley
DH Randy Arozarena
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Victor Robles

Against lefthanders:

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Randy Arozarena
DH Mitch Garver
2B Brandon Lowe/Dylan Moore
LF Victor Robles

The trades would cost the Mariners six years of Ryan Bliss and their No. 4, No. 9, No. 12 and No. 15 prospects at MLB.com. However, the M's would retain Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celesten, among others. By 2027 the top prospects should be ready after the expirations of team control over Crawford, Lowe, Bohm, Diaz and Arozarena.

Let me take cover before you fire off your responses.

They aren't doing any of these.

Bro why don't you engage with the post and offer an explanation as to why you think that?

[Pharmabro]

Another day, Another day of nothing

[Lamda]

Another day, Another day of nothing

Yup... sounds like they are doing their normal thing of waiting for the markets on below average players to dry out so they can swoop in and offer a team friendly contract and then also surprisingly, they aren't getting much action in the trade market.

[Seattle or Bust]

Feinsand on a Castillo trade: "the Mariners wanted Triston Casas back in a trade, something the Red Sox were unwilling to do unless Seattle took back Masataka Yoshida, who has three years and $55.8 million remaining on his contract."

Oh, ya think? Why on earth would they trade a solid pitcher to take on one of the worst contracts in baseball?

[Donn Beach]

So dipoto didn't turn Casas down. Qi have a hard time believing he would

[Seattle or Bust]

So dipoto didn't turn Casas down. Qi have a hard time believing he would

Nope. Instead he was probably so insulted by the Red Sox offer that he rage texted sources that he did.

[Pharmabro]

Feinsand on a Castillo trade: "the Mariners wanted Triston Casas back in a trade, something the Red Sox were unwilling to do unless Seattle took back Masataka Yoshida, who has three years and $55.8 million remaining on his contract."

Oh, ya think? Why on earth would they trade a solid pitcher to take on one of the worst contracts in baseball?

I'd be fine with it if you were 100% confident you could teach either Masataka or Luke to play passable 3B.

Luke Raley has the tools 90th percentile sprint speed. 73rd percentile arm
Masataka is a DH 20th percentile sprint speed and he had a 53.2 percentile arm in 2023.

Masataka vs Luis saves you about 6M in the 1st year, Casas probably make 3-4M in 2026 and 6-7M in 2027. You could probably put in Garver vs LHP as well. Masataka vs RHP = .810 OPS vs LHP .669 OPS

MLB trade calc
Casas 29.9M
Masataka -25.2
Cash 3M
Total 7.7M


Luis Castillo 7.7M

With the 3M cash you can bundle that up with the savings and basically go trade for Brandon Lowe. And then go out and get a lefty set-up guy and were good to go. I just think if you went up to Luke and said, come on down to the sports complex or training facility here is your 3B coach be ready for the focus of 2025.

[GL_Storm]

I wonder if they'll end up signing Josh Rojas to play 3B. They didn't want his arbitration salary, but they can still negotiate with him as a free agent. On the other hand, his market may end up being more than they want to pay, maybe more than he would have made in arbitration, which I think was projected at $4.5 mil or something like that.

[Seattle or Bust]

I wonder if they'll end up signing Josh Rojas to play 3B. They didn't want his arbitration salary, but they can still negotiate with him as a free agent. On the other hand, his market may end up being more than they want to pay, maybe more than he would have made in arbitration, which I think was projected at $4.5 mil or something like that.

75 OPS+ and .586 OPS from 5/1 on last year.

Unplayable bat. Can't give money to that.

[Seattle or Bust]

Feinsand on a Castillo trade: "the Mariners wanted Triston Casas back in a trade, something the Red Sox were unwilling to do unless Seattle took back Masataka Yoshida, who has three years and $55.8 million remaining on his contract."

Oh, ya think? Why on earth would they trade a solid pitcher to take on one of the worst contracts in baseball?

I'd be fine with it if you were 100% confident you could teach either Masataka or Luke to play passable 3B.

Luke Raley has the tools 90th percentile sprint speed. 73rd percentile arm
Masataka is a DH 20th percentile sprint speed and he had a 53.2 percentile arm in 2023.

Masataka vs Luis saves you about 6M in the 1st year, Casas probably make 3-4M in 2026 and 6-7M in 2027. You could probably put in Garver vs LHP as well. Masataka vs RHP = .810 OPS vs LHP .669 OPS

MLB trade calc
Casas 29.9M
Masataka -25.2
Cash 3M
Total 7.7M


Luis Castillo 7.7M

With the 3M cash you can bundle that up with the savings and basically go trade for Brandon Lowe. And then go out and get a lefty set-up guy and were good to go. I just think if you went up to Luke and said, come on down to the sports complex or training facility here is your 3B coach be ready for the focus of 2025.

Do you know how hard 3B is to play?