So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

[Donn Beach]

Yeah different skill sets, and you aren't generally moving to a harder position at the ML level. Guys that come up as a 3rd baseman get moved to the outfield, outfielders aren't tending to move to 3rd base. There's mookie betts thats done both, tatis jr. Biggio went from catcher to second, Ford could have that ability, but we are talking exceptional athletes. Mike Morse came up as a SS. They signed Betancourt and moved Morse to utility and then the outfield. Could you imagine Morse as your SS?

And generally speaking I think it's difficult to get a player to try changing positions, get out of their comfort zone, probably embarrassing themselves in front of thousands. It's one thing to try moving to first base to try and extend your career, but I'm not trading for a guy making that kind of money and begin things by trying to get him to try playing 3rd base

[desbcoach]

If free agent hitters won't come to Seattle, the Mariners may need to thin out the farm to fill out the lineup while staying within the rumored budget.

To that end, let's exam trades based on Baseball Trade Values values (listed in parentheses in millions of dollars from that player's most recent BTV trade):

2B Ryan Bliss (14.5)
OF Jonny Farmelo (21.7)
Total surplus value (36.2)

to Tampa Bay for

2B Brandon Lowe (13.7) [$10.5 million in 2025, $11.5 million club option in 2025 with $500,000 buyout]
1B Yandy Diaz (23.4) [$10 million in 2025, $12 millon club option in 2026 with no buyout]
Total surplus value (37.1)

The Rays get a high-ceiling outfield prospect and an infield replacement while shedding their two highest salaries.

C Harry Ford (19.5)
3B Ben Williamson (7.0)
Total surplus value (26.5)

to Philadelphia for

3B Alec Bohm (25.5) [projected 2025 salary of $8.1 million with two years of team control]
Total surplus value (25.5)

The Phillies groom a replacement for J.T. Realmuto and get a lottery ticket at third base (while reducing their luxury tax)

SS Michael Arroyo (13.7)
OF Mitch Haniger (-15.5) [$17.5 million in 2025 plus $1 million assignment bonus]
Round A Comp Balance Pick (4.4)
Total surplus value (2.6)

to Colorado for

Round B Comp Balance Pick (2.0)
Total surplus value (2.0)

Much like the Atlanta Braves taking on salary to acquire Jarred Kelenic, the Rockies pay $15+ million for the rights to promising shortstop prospect Michael Arroyo (and to move up in the draft).

Diaz, Lowe and Bohm have a combined 2025 salary of $28.6 million with team control through 2026 (but no guaranteed commitment for 2026).

The Mariners would take on Haniger's $1 million assignment bonus but subtract his disputed 2025 salary of $15.5 million to $17.5 million.

The net result would get the Mariners within the $16 million the team reportedly has to spend this offseason. The M's might have a few million left over for a bullpen arm or two.

The lineups (banking on a bounceback from J.P. Crawford):

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Luke Raley
DH Randy Arozarena
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Victor Robles

Against lefthanders:

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Yandy Diaz
C Cal Raleigh
3B Alec Bohm
RF Randy Arozarena
DH Mitch Garver
2B Brandon Lowe/Dylan Moore
LF Victor Robles

The trades would cost the Mariners six years of Ryan Bliss and their No. 4, No. 9, No. 12 and No. 15 prospects at MLB.com. However, the M's would retain Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celesten, among others. By 2027 the top prospects should be ready after the expirations of team control over Crawford, Lowe, Bohm, Diaz and Arozarena.

Let me take cover before you fire off your responses.

They aren't doing any of these.

Bro why don't you engage with the post and offer an explanation as to why you think that?

Dipoto loves his prospects and will cling for dear life. Only one that I see as potential would be a Hanniger and prospect to a team. Maybe send a little cash to save half the salary.

[GL_Storm]

I wonder if they'll end up signing Josh Rojas to play 3B. They didn't want his arbitration salary, but they can still negotiate with him as a free agent. On the other hand, his market may end up being more than they want to pay, maybe more than he would have made in arbitration, which I think was projected at $4.5 mil or something like that.

75 OPS+ and .586 OPS from 5/1 on last year.

Unplayable bat. Can't give money to that.

They need someone to play the position. His market is probably similar to Gio Urshela, but could get bid up a bit when your more scrubbish type players start signing 1 year deals in the next few weeks.

[Big_Maple]

So, I’ve read a couple of articles today that claim that the M’s were really close to trading Castillo for Triston Casas, but the BoSox wanted to include LF Masataka Yoshida and his $56MM contract as well. The M’s apparently balked.

Yeah, Yoshida’s contract would be a big add-in to the trade - in return we’d get a middling LF and DH, and they already have bloated contracts in Haniger and Garver. But we’d free up money by moving Castillo, and surely to god we could find a way to move some combination of Garver or Haniger plus prospects to bring down payroll. Yoshida was batting .280 last season - he wasn’t lights out, but he’s an upgrade over the Mitches. How does this math not make sense?

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/bos ... cb32e7f940

[GL_Storm]

So, I’ve read a couple of articles today that claim that the M’s were really close to trading Castillo for Triston Casas, but the BoSox wanted to include LF Masataka Yoshida and his $56MM contract as well. The M’s apparently balked.

Yeah, Yoshida’s contract would be a big add-in to the trade - in return we’d get a middling LF and DH, and they already have bloated contracts in Haniger and Garver. But we’d free up money by moving Castillo, and surely to god we could find a way to move some combination of Garver or Haniger plus prospects to bring down payroll. Yoshida was batting .280 last season - he wasn’t lights out, but he’s an upgrade over the Mitches. How does this math not make sense?

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/bos ... cb32e7f940

It's pretty simple. Yoshida's a massively overpaid 1-tool player. He can hit, but he can't do anything else.

Here's his contract details: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id ... ka-yoshida

The trade might have helped in 2025, but for 2026 and 2027 you're taking on some really bad money.

[Big_Maple]

So, I’ve read a couple of articles today that claim that the M’s were really close to trading Castillo for Triston Casas, but the BoSox wanted to include LF Masataka Yoshida and his $56MM contract as well. The M’s apparently balked.

Yeah, Yoshida’s contract would be a big add-in to the trade - in return we’d get a middling LF and DH, and they already have bloated contracts in Haniger and Garver. But we’d free up money by moving Castillo, and surely to god we could find a way to move some combination of Garver or Haniger plus prospects to bring down payroll. Yoshida was batting .280 last season - he wasn’t lights out, but he’s an upgrade over the Mitches. How does this math not make sense?

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/bos ... cb32e7f940

It's pretty simple. Yoshida's a massively overpaid 1-tool player. He can hit, but he can't do anything else.

Here's his contract details: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id ... ka-yoshida

The trade might have helped in 2025, but for 2026 and 2027 you're taking on some really bad money.

Even with both Mitches coming off the books next year? All Yoshida has to do is hit as DH.

If we could move one or both of them this offseason by then it makes sense to me.

[D-train]

Yeah I think it makes sense cuz you're losing Castillo money and you don't have to pay casas more than minimum wage

[Seattle or Bust]

So, I’ve read a couple of articles today that claim that the M’s were really close to trading Castillo for Triston Casas, but the BoSox wanted to include LF Masataka Yoshida and his $56MM contract as well. The M’s apparently balked.

Yeah, Yoshida’s contract would be a big add-in to the trade - in return we’d get a middling LF and DH, and they already have bloated contracts in Haniger and Garver. But we’d free up money by moving Castillo, and surely to god we could find a way to move some combination of Garver or Haniger plus prospects to bring down payroll. Yoshida was batting .280 last season - he wasn’t lights out, but he’s an upgrade over the Mitches. How does this math not make sense?

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/bos ... cb32e7f940

It's pretty simple. Yoshida's a massively overpaid 1-tool player. He can hit, but he can't do anything else.

Here's his contract details: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id ... ka-yoshida

The trade might have helped in 2025, but for 2026 and 2027 you're taking on some really bad money.

Even with both Mitches coming off the books next year? All Yoshida has to do is hit as DH.

If we could move one or both of them this offseason by then it makes sense to me.

The M's would give anything to be rid of Haniger or Garver's contracts I'm sure.

I doubt they have very much interest in adding another Haniger or Garver that's making $18.5M per year. Yoshida has decent numbers on the surface until you see that he's profited from hitting in Boston and has just a .740 career road OPS.

Paying someone $18.5M a year to only DH for a .740 OPS (potentially worse) as he ages ain't it.

[D-train]

Yeah I can see that side of it for sure. I'm honestly starting to think they're just going to do nothing does all their options either don't make sense or just minimal improvements at best

[GL_Storm]

It's pretty simple. Yoshida's a massively overpaid 1-tool player. He can hit, but he can't do anything else.

Here's his contract details: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id ... ka-yoshida

The trade might have helped in 2025, but for 2026 and 2027 you're taking on some really bad money.

Even with both Mitches coming off the books next year? All Yoshida has to do is hit as DH.

If we could move one or both of them this offseason by then it makes sense to me.

The M's would give anything to be rid of Haniger or Garver's contracts I'm sure.

I doubt they have very much interest in adding another Haniger or Garver that's making $18.5M per year. Yoshida has decent numbers on the surface until you see that he's profited from hitting in Boston and has just a .740 career road OPS.

Paying someone $18.5M a year to only DH for a .740 OPS (potentially worse) as he ages ain't it.

Yep. I'm pretty sure this is the right take, at least in terms of how they're looking at it. Big picture, you'd be trading a good player on a favorable contract for two extremely limited offense-only players, coming into a park with a track record of destroying offensive players.