Luke Raley for Jose C

[D-train]

Steamer projects him for 1.1 WAR with 412 PAs

Because it idiotically incorporates his pre 2023 numbers. Perfect case study why it is accurate in the aggregate but is worthless for individual players.

Negative infinity chance he puts up 1.1 WAR or less in 412 PAs.

[D-train]

Santana was 6'5" and 220 pounds also.

He played for us 5 years ago and he's still only 2 years older than Raley at this point.

I don't think Santana did bad with us, I liked him a lot because of the upside, same as Raley, he just played terrible defense while he was here.

If Raley puts up the .770 OPS that Santana did then plays solid defense he'll be at least an average LF, with plenty of upside there.

Career numbers, Santana is two years older and has been out of MLB for three seasons:

WAR per 600
Santana: 1.4
Raley: 2.5

2023
Raley: 3.7

Pretty crazy how much his defense hurt his value. The offensive numbers seem to favor Santana, his defense killed him.

Yep and Raleys horrid pre 2023 numbers offensive numbers kill him. Thankfully they are irrelevant going forward.

[D-train]

Raley confirms two of my major contentions.

Projections are worthless because there is no nuance. They incorporate his pre 2023 numbers which are completely irrelevant because he revamped his swing in 2023.

So what changed last year? Raley pointed to a notable swing change.

“I basically redid my whole swing last offseason, the biggest thing being I had a leg kick and my leg kick was super successful in the minor leagues. But I felt with the increased velocity that you see in the big leagues and the extra movement that pitchers have, it was just too much to maintain,” he said. “I felt like part of the reason I had a leg kick was to produce power, and I didn’t feel like I needed to produce more power. I feel like with a basic swing I can get the ball out of any yard and not have an issue … I think that that definitely played a part in the success.”

And that leads to the second point as to why it was idiotic to platoon Ford last season and why Raley should play EVERY day:

“It’s hard enough to hit big league pitching when you’re seeing it every single day, and it’s really hard to do it when you’re seeing it every third day or maybe a pinch hit every now and then,” he said. “It definitely makes a difference being out there more consistently.”

Finally I love this!

For Mariners fans unfamiliar with Raley’s game, he described it to Goldsmith and Hill.

“Gritty. I think that’s the best way to describe myself is I will do anything that the team needs me to do to win baseball games,” he said. “I don’t care if it’s getting hit by a pitch, laying down a bunt, stealing a base, laying out in the outfield or running into a wall, I’m gonna do it. I play 110% all the time.”

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1771446/ ... uke-raley/

[D-train]

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Raley confirms two of my major contentions.

Projections are worthless because there is no nuance. They incorporate his pre 2023 numbers which are completely irrelevant because he revamped his swing in 2023.

So what changed last year? Raley pointed to a notable swing change.

“I basically redid my whole swing last offseason, the biggest thing being I had a leg kick and my leg kick was super successful in the minor leagues. But I felt with the increased velocity that you see in the big leagues and the extra movement that pitchers have, it was just too much to maintain,” he said. “I felt like part of the reason I had a leg kick was to produce power, and I didn’t feel like I needed to produce more power. I feel like with a basic swing I can get the ball out of any yard and not have an issue … I think that that definitely played a part in the success.”

And that leads to the second point as to why it was idiotic to platoon Ford last season and why Raley should play EVERY day:

“It’s hard enough to hit big league pitching when you’re seeing it every single day, and it’s really hard to do it when you’re seeing it every third day or maybe a pinch hit every now and then,” he said. “It definitely makes a difference being out there more consistently.”

Finally I love this!

For Mariners fans unfamiliar with Raley’s game, he described it to Goldsmith and Hill.

“Gritty. I think that’s the best way to describe myself is I will do anything that the team needs me to do to win baseball games,” he said. “I don’t care if it’s getting hit by a pitch, laying down a bunt, stealing a base, laying out in the outfield or running into a wall, I’m gonna do it. I play 110% all the time.”

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1771446/ ... uke-raley/

You got to love that………I never heard Jared EVER say that

[D-train]

He literally the antithesis of JK on EVERY level.

https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=5 ... 2Lb0OiP8nM

[Coeurd’Alene J]

He literally the antithesis of JK on EVERY level.

https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=5 ... 2Lb0OiP8nM

He is a better version of but a Cabalero. The guy pissed off the competition in a way it’s a fair trade with a big slant our way.

[Donn Beach]

Raley confirms two of my major contentions.

Projections are worthless because there is no nuance. They incorporate his pre 2023 numbers which are completely irrelevant because he revamped his swing in 2023.

So what changed last year? Raley pointed to a notable swing change.

“I basically redid my whole swing last offseason, the biggest thing being I had a leg kick and my leg kick was super successful in the minor leagues. But I felt with the increased velocity that you see in the big leagues and the extra movement that pitchers have, it was just too much to maintain,” he said. “I felt like part of the reason I had a leg kick was to produce power, and I didn’t feel like I needed to produce more power. I feel like with a basic swing I can get the ball out of any yard and not have an issue … I think that that definitely played a part in the success.”

And that leads to the second point as to why it was idiotic to platoon Ford last season and why Raley should play EVERY day:

“It’s hard enough to hit big league pitching when you’re seeing it every single day, and it’s really hard to do it when you’re seeing it every third day or maybe a pinch hit every now and then,” he said. “It definitely makes a difference being out there more consistently.”

Finally I love this!

For Mariners fans unfamiliar with Raley’s game, he described it to Goldsmith and Hill.

“Gritty. I think that’s the best way to describe myself is I will do anything that the team needs me to do to win baseball games,” he said. “I don’t care if it’s getting hit by a pitch, laying down a bunt, stealing a base, laying out in the outfield or running into a wall, I’m gonna do it. I play 110% all the time.”

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1771446/ ... uke-raley/

Kelenic revamped his swing and saw some success with it before fading. Kelenic had issues with his leg kick

[D-train]

Kelenic definitely had issues...

[bpj]

Steamer projects him for 1.1 WAR with 412 PAs

Because it idiotically incorporates his pre 2023 numbers. Perfect case study why it is accurate in the aggregate but is worthless for individual players.

Negative infinity chance he puts up 1.1 WAR or less in 412 PAs.

The hurdle I can't get over is that his second half was 166 PA, he put up 0.3 WAR and a .677 OPS from July 15th on. That's about a 0.75 WAR pace in 412 PA.

Yes, it's a small sample size, but it's still 30% of his career PA's, and looked an awful lot like his first two stints in MLB.

The only thing he has going for him is we can hope the injuries actually caused the dropoff, but hoping that's the case feels pretty risky given they're handing him an important power position where we could have had a plus bat.

Even Kelenic had a .707 OPS in the second half. Once they figured out to throw him bendy stuff, it was over.

Raley reminds me of Logan Morrison also.

Hopefully he can pull off that .770 OPS or higher, but he looks more like a .730 OPS guy imo, and that's if he doesn't have the typical Seattle nosedive. Winker went from a .950 OPS with the Reds to a .688 with the M's.

Seems like the same old story with a new name. Hope I'm wrong, but Raley is our most susceptible player to an implosion imo.