2025 Prospects Thread

[Donn Beach]

Actually I was going to point out he's become quite positive about Laz. Go look at what he said before and what he has to say now, that's exactly what he's done, change his opinion

[D-train]

Actually I was going to point out he's become quite positive about Laz. Go look at what he said before and what he has to say now, that's exactly what he's done, change his opinion

Montes is a huge, lumbering prospect from Cuba who hits the ball exceptionally hard, so the natural comparison is to a young Yordan Alvarez, who was older than Montes when he first played in full-season ball but reached the majors days before his 22nd birthday. Montes is extremely strong and has produced exit velocities well north of 110 mph, with clear 40 homer upside as long as he hits enough to get to it. He’s not as natural of a hitter as Alvarez, although the Mariners worked with him on pitch selection and a two-strike approach last year and he did see better swing decisions overall. He raked in Low A as a 19-year-old, hitting .309/.411/.527 with just a 19.1 percent strikeout rate, then moved up to High A around the midpoint and hit .260/.378/.427 there with a 29.6 percent strikeout rate, still making hard contact but a lot more whiffs on stuff in the zone. He’s going to end up at first base, as he’s already really big for an outfield corner and doesn’t have much range, but there’s a pretty good chance he hits for enough power and takes enough walks to be an above-average regular there. I don’t think Montes is really the next Yordan; he doesn’t have the same kind of hit tool, but he also doesn’t have Yordan’s knees, which both required surgery when he was 23 and made him even less mobile than he was before.

I have seen highlights of him cruising into 2B with a stand up double on a ball that didn't even reach the warning track in RCF and I have seen him make multiple running catches that required AT LEAST average speed if not above average.

His career BA is .291, Emerson's is .290 including .269 this past season. Why doesn't he say that about Emerson???

Love he is so confident that he doesn't bother to include "I think" or "imo" Adam Dunn who was 6'6" and 285lbs started 1083 games in the OF. Why haven't the M's moved him to 1B already???? He is only two years away from his ETA, doesn't he need to learn to play 1B if he is a lock to play there?

So now he puts in back in the OF as an above average regular???

[Donn Beach]

I was referring to what he has said in the past, I think he's a lot more positive. I can't find last year's column other than what's behind s paywall

[Bil522]

My biggest issue is that given the huge number of prospects most of these guys don't travel around the country to watch every prospect play. A lot easier for them to just "borrow" the opinions of a few of the top analysts and then it just becomes group think. Zero doubt about it.

Actually, Law does go to many prospect games every year. He actually does columns from the games on whichever teams prospects he is watching.

[Donn Beach]

Yeah, can't really see Law borrowing opinions from other evaluators, he's too contraian for that

[Vogelbomb]

Actually I was going to point out he's become quite positive about Laz. Go look at what he said before and what he has to say now, that's exactly what he's done, change his opinion

Agreed. I mean there's the same BS about him being big and stiff and lumbering, he can't play the corner OF nonsense, but whatever

[Vogelbomb]

Geez it really pisses you off that Law likes a mariners prospect. I don't see why injuries should lower prospect status. You're going to claim he's already injury prone? And Law correctly points out that moving off of SS would impact his value. But I don't see where that's become a concern

Lol what pisses me off is when people refuse to incorporate new info and adjust their opinions accordingly. Law will hate Laz and discount Arroyo and love Emerson regardless of how 2025 goes. Book it.

It's funny to see how much this grates on DT's nerves. lmao

[Vogelbomb]

And yes DT, if you could stop quoting super long posts, I think we'd all appreciate it. =]

[GL_Storm]

My biggest issue is that given the huge number of prospects most of these guys don't travel around the country to watch every prospect play. A lot easier for them to just "borrow" the opinions of a few of the top analysts and then it just becomes group think. Zero doubt about it.

There's definitely some groupthink. That said, Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen tend to be the contrarians.

I agree that Law is wildly overvaluing Colt Emerson at #5. Baseball America has him at #16 and Pipeline has him at #20, both of which make more sense but are still probably high.

All of these rankings tend to overvalue younger players in the lower levels and overly discount players that hit some resistance at AA and above.

[GL_Storm]

My only problem with quoting very long posts is that you sometimes don't know which part of the post the other person is referring to in their response.