Looks like Jerry's 4 year ban on Japanese players will continue

[D-train]

By Ryan Divish
Seattle Times staff reporter
The Mariners’ tradition of success with Japanese players, which blossomed in the early 2000s, can’t be overlooked. A statue of Ichiro to be unveiled on April 10 at T-Mobile Park will make that even more impossible.

And while the Mariners have had 11 different Japanese players wear a Mariners uniform dating back to Mac Suzuki’s signing in 1996, it doesn’t necessarily mean they are the favored or expected destination for every player that is posted by their Nippon Professional Baseball team.

Recent history doesn’t necessarily make Seattle the preeminent place for NPB stars coming to MLB. The last Japanese player to suit up in an MLB game for the Mariners was left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi in 2021. The last position player was Nori Aoki in 2016.

Still, when it was announced that slugging third baseman Munetaka Murakami had been posted by his team the Tokyo Yakult Swallows during last week’s MLB general managers meetings, the Mariners were listed among the teams that would be a possible destination.

When fellow third baseman Kazuma Okamoto of the Yomiuri Giants was posted on Thursday, the Mariners were listed as a possible suitor by several analysts.

Will either end up with the Mariners?

At first glance, both might seem like a fit since the Mariners have an opening at third base with Eugenio Suárez now a free agent.

But in talking with multiple professional scouts from opposing teams, who have watched both players extensively over the past two seasons, the consensus is that neither Murakami nor Okamoto project to play third base due to defensive inadequacies, and are better suited for first base.

Okamoto, who turns 30 in late June, has played 835 games at third base and 519 at first base in his career. He’s also played some outfield early in his career. He missed most of the 2025 after suffering an elbow injury in a collision while playing first base.

Murakami is only 25 and has played 763 games at third base and 266 games at first base. But none of the scouts believe he could play third base at even an adequate MLB level.


“I think that’s a real question for either of them,” said one scout of both players’ ability to play third base. “I actually think Okamoto has a chance to stay at third.”

Said another scout: “Defensively, Murakami is not a third baseman. His range, comfort, arm accuracy all are suspect. Okamoto is a far superior defender who is also destined for first base full time.”

The Mariners just signed their everyday first baseman Josh Naylor to a 5-year, $92.5 million contract.

Obviously, defense isn’t what makes Murakami attractive to teams. He is considered the best pure power hitter to come out of Japan in decades.

A left-handed hitter with a violent swing, he set the single-season home run record for a Japanese player in NPB, blasting 56 dingers in 2022 and breaking Sadaharu Oh’s record of 55. He hit 246 career homers over eight seasons and 892 games in the NPB.

Murakami played in only 56 games this past season after suffering an oblique injury. He posted a .273/.379/.663 slash line with 22 homers.

But the real concern is about his swing-and-miss tendencies. His strikeout rate jumped from 21% in 2022 to 28% in 2023, 30% in 2024 and 29% in 2025. Two scouts mentioned struggles with fastballs over 95 mph and cutters in on his hands. Hitters in the NPB don’t see the high-level velocity and power breaking pitches that they would see on a daily basis in MLB.

“The in-zone whiffs and lack of barrel accuracy are very real,” said one scout. “The power is some of the best I’ve seen, but it’s a three true outcome (homer, walk, strikeout) profile at this stage.”

Another prediction from another scout was Murakami would post around a .230/.310/.460 slash line with maybe 30 homers a year and a strikeout rate over 30%.

Okamoto, a right-handed hitter, has better bat-to-ball skills with a lower strikeout rate, but not as much power.


FILE – Yomiuri Giants’ Kazuma Okamoto flies out in the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Tokyo, Japan, Saturday, March 15, 2025. (Hiro Komae / The Associated Press)
In 69 games this season, he posted a .327/.416/.598 slash line with 21 doubles, 15 homers, 38 RBI, 33 walks and 33 strikeouts. His strikeout rate for his career has gone over 20% for a season only once in his career. But his typical contact and balls in play are somewhat different than expected. He is heavy to the pull side with a unique swing that starts with his front arm almost straight and his hands back. Will he be able to pull the MLB fastballs?

To sign either of the players, the Mariners would have to pay a posting fee to the former team along with the guaranteed salary to a player. The posting fee varies on the total salary of the contract signed by the player.

From MLB’s glossary on posting fees:

For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value of $25 million or less, the release fee will be 20 percent of the total guaranteed value of the contract.
For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value between $25,000,001 and $50 million, the release fee will be 20 percent of the first $25 million plus 17.5 percent of the total guaranteed value exceeding $25 million.
For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value of $50,000,001 or more, the release fee will be 20 percent of the first $25 million plus 17.5 percent of next $25 million plus 15 percent of the total guaranteed value exceeding $50 million.
Okamoto is expected to receive at least a three-year deal of more than $35 million with vesting options to extend it. That would make the posting fee over $6 million. Murakami is a looking for deal of more than five-years and close $85 million, which would make the posting fee over $15 million.