On-Pace bWARs for those currently either on the roster or on the IL
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2026 7:19 pm
To start with, the average WAR for a full-time player or starting pitcher over 162 games is 1.8, not 0.0 as many people think. Someone on pace for a 1.0 WAR isn't one game better than an average player, he's one game worse than an average player over the course of 162 games. For relief pitchers it's 0.6
These are the projected WARs of players based on the number of games they've played projected out to 162 games.
Arozarena 6.0
Young 5.6
Emerson 4.9 (only 20 games played)
Julio 4.6
Donovan 3.9
Canzone 2.9
JP 2.4
Garver 1.9
Pereda 1.9 (only 17 games played)
Raley 1.8
Naylor -0.5
Cal -0.8
Refsnyder -2.8
Robles - 2.9 (only 17 games played)
Wisdom - 6.2 (only 13 games played)
For starting pitchers we'll project out to 32 starts (in Miller's and Castillo's cases we're including piggyback games)
Miller 7.7 (only 5 appearances)
Hancock 4.9
Gilbert 3.2
Kirby 1.6
Woo 1.4
Castillo -1.5
For relief pitchers we'll project out to 64 appearances
Brash 2.9
Davila 2.8 (only 9 appearances)
Speier 1.8
Ferrer 1.6
Bazardo 1.2
Criswell 0.7
Munoz -1.2
Hoppe -1.8
Some notes:
Arozarena is having his best season as a big-leaguer. Adrian Beltre in five years couldn't give us one season like this?
Young is leading the American League in defensive bWAR.
Garver must be doing a hell of job behind the plate.
Even though his hitting has also been blah, Naylor gets killed on defensive metrics.
Refsnyder only plays partial games and rarely plays defense, otherwise he'd be minus-infinity.
If you knew going into the season that Miller and Hancock would be pitching the way they are, would you have even begun to entertain the idea that the Mariners were going to only be two games above .500?
Brash should have been closing.
These are the projected WARs of players based on the number of games they've played projected out to 162 games.
Arozarena 6.0
Young 5.6
Emerson 4.9 (only 20 games played)
Julio 4.6
Donovan 3.9
Canzone 2.9
JP 2.4
Garver 1.9
Pereda 1.9 (only 17 games played)
Raley 1.8
Naylor -0.5
Cal -0.8
Refsnyder -2.8
Robles - 2.9 (only 17 games played)
Wisdom - 6.2 (only 13 games played)
For starting pitchers we'll project out to 32 starts (in Miller's and Castillo's cases we're including piggyback games)
Miller 7.7 (only 5 appearances)
Hancock 4.9
Gilbert 3.2
Kirby 1.6
Woo 1.4
Castillo -1.5
For relief pitchers we'll project out to 64 appearances
Brash 2.9
Davila 2.8 (only 9 appearances)
Speier 1.8
Ferrer 1.6
Bazardo 1.2
Criswell 0.7
Munoz -1.2
Hoppe -1.8
Some notes:
Arozarena is having his best season as a big-leaguer. Adrian Beltre in five years couldn't give us one season like this?
Young is leading the American League in defensive bWAR.
Garver must be doing a hell of job behind the plate.
Even though his hitting has also been blah, Naylor gets killed on defensive metrics.
Refsnyder only plays partial games and rarely plays defense, otherwise he'd be minus-infinity.
If you knew going into the season that Miller and Hancock would be pitching the way they are, would you have even begun to entertain the idea that the Mariners were going to only be two games above .500?
Brash should have been closing.