Projecting 2021
Posted: Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:35 pm
Projecting the rebuilt Mariners’ 2021 lineup
Corey Brock Jun 19, 2019 53
It’s already been a tough season for Mariners fans, even for those who are completely on board with the team’s rebuilding project. At 31-46, Seattle sits in last place in the American League West, and with Jerry Dipoto and company unloading anyone who might fetch even a modest return, things likely won’t get any better for a while.
The toughest part about the rebuild is not knowing whether the prospects the club has accumulated since the end of last season will be the ones who lead this franchise out of its doldrums and put an end to the longest current postseason drought in pro sports.
In a best-case scenario, the Mariners’ young building blocks will develop into major-league contributors over the next season and a half and Seattle emerges as at least an interesting team — if not a true contender yet — two years from now. So let’s take a look into our crystal ball to see what the 2021 Mariners might look like.
This group we’ve pegged for 2021 has balance; there’s speed and power without as many strikeouts as the current team. Defensively, the 2021 group should be much better than this year’s abysmal group. The rotation will have some guys who can miss bats, which Seattle doesn’t currently have, and the back end of the bullpen — with an interesting pick to close games — should also be better.
Without further ado, here are our picks for Seattle’s 2021 squad: Be sure to post your comments and complaints below — and remember, this is all for fun.
Catcher, Omar Narváez (29 on Opening Day 2021): There has been a lot to like about the Venezuelan’s first season with the team. He’s come largely as advertised as a bat-first catcher, although he’s taken to some of the defensive fixes coaches have implemented to improve his framing, among other things. Narváez has lost playing time this month to Tom Murphy, but there is no reason to think Narváez won’t continue to improve. The two form a nice 1-2 combo, giving the team offense at the position for the first time in ages. If Seattle can keep Murphy on the roster for 2021, all the better.
First base, Evan White (24): Given Seattle’s defensive woes this season, you’d expect the organization to do everything it can to field a team that can pick it and throw it better in the future. They don’t come better defensively than White, a first-round pick out of Kentucky in 2016. How his bat plays moving is really the only question — but it’s a big one. Playing half of his games in an unforgiving ballpark in Arkansas hasn’t helped in 2019, but White has shown encouraging signs. He hit .214 in April before upping that to .267 in May. He is hitting .371 with six home runs in June. Baseball America’s No. 100 overall prospect has a good feel for the strike zone, which matches up with the club’s offensive philosophy. If the bat keeps improving, look out.
Second base, Shed Long (25): Long could be a future big-league utilityman, and while there’s a value in that, I’m not sure the Mariners are ready to send him down that path yet. I think Long will get a chance to win the second-base job — he will likely get a longer audition if and when the team trades veteran Dee Gordon (for more pieces for the rebuild, of course). I think the Mariners can iron out his defensive shortcomings with infield guru Perry Hill. The biggest question is whether his bat is good enough to lock down a full-time spot.
Shortstop, J.P. Crawford (26): Last winter Seattle bought low on Crawford, a former first-round pick of the Phillies who had broken service time due to injuries and ineffectiveness. We have already seen what the Mariners like in Crawford and why they consider him their shortstop of the future: The defense is clean, the range is good and the bat can play at the big-league level. Crawford just needs to play, and he will get that chance the rest of this season and likely all of next season. By the time 2021 rolls around, Crawford should be in a better position to deliver on both sides of the ball.
Mike Moustakas (Darren Yamashita / USA Today)
Third base, Mike Moustakas (32): OK, this is a little bit of a stretch, but that’s the fun part of this exercise, right? Hear me out: I can’t say for sure when Kyle Seager’s long tenure with the team will come to an end, but it’s hard to envision him as part of the 2021 squad, even if he’ll be owed $18 million in the final season of that seven-year (!) deal, one that also allows for a $15 million option to kick if he’s dealt. Remember, the Mariners supposedly couldn’t move Robinson Canó and his contract, either.
Moose is having an All-Star caliber season in Milwaukee and will likely decline his 2020 option and become a free agent. He’s already been through a rebuild with the Royals and is a good teammate who can play second and third. To get him, Seattle would have to offer at least a two-year deal with an option or a three-year deal. That might sound spendy, but the team has said the financial flexibility they’ve gained as the result of moving players last winter and this summer will give them room to supplement the roster. If it’s not Moose, they’ll have to add someone else to help this group if they are expecting to contend for a postseason spot. Another guy I like for third base as an unproven commodity is Ty France of the Padres. The bat-first third baseman with a career .284/.379/.448 slash line in the minors is roadblocked by Manny Machado in San Diego.
Left field, Jarred Kelenic (21): Think of all the good you heard about Kelenic after the Mariners landed him in that big trade with the Mets. Now consider that he has actually been better than the hype. Last year’s No. 6 overall pick tore up the South Atlantic League and is now in the Cal League playing with guys four years older than he. So far he’s not looked overmatched. His left-handed swing packs a punch (13 home runs), and he’s patient at the plate (27 walks). His arm and athleticism play anywhere in the outfield. He’s moving fast, which is why we’ve stuck him here on the 2021 team (even if he’s not here on Opening Day). He will only be 22 in July 2021, but there are some who feel he’ll be ready for that challenge when it arrives. I think this kid is the real deal.
Center field, Mitch Haniger (30): The Mariners kept Haniger during their winter purge of assets last year in part because they envisioned him being a leader and an example for the many young faces headed Seattle’s way. This season has been a struggle, but there’s a good player here — and someone who isn’t making much money. Haniger will still be arbitration eligible in 2021, and most feel his skill set won’t depreciate much between now and then, though the team would like to see him cut down on that 28 percent strikeout rate. Defensively, he can play anywhere and could easily move around based on where the team wants to stick Kelenic.
Right field, Jake Fraley (25): All Fraley is doing in his first season with the Mariners is leading the Texas League in hitting while showing pop, drawing walks and stealing bags. He seems like a steal in the Mallex Smith deal with the Rays. Fraley will end up with Triple-A Tacoma this year, and we could even see him at T-Mobile Park before the end of the season. He can control the strike zone and change a game with one swing. He’s a good fit in right field for now and could easily slide into the No. 2 spot in the order when he reaches the big leagues.
Designated hitter, Domingo Santana (28): There wasn’t a hotter Mariner in March and April than “Showmingo,” whom the Mariners acquired for a song from the Brewers in the offseason. Santana’s power comes in waves (13 home runs so far in 2019), and you have to be OK with that. He leads the American League in strikeouts, which you can live with if the power shows up. The defense in left field wasn’t good (eight errors), which is why he’s probably destined to end up as a designated hitter at some point. Santana is under team control through 2021. What about Daniel Vogelbach? Maybe you can hang on to him and play him at DH against tough right-handed pitchers.
Marco Gonzales (Kelley L Cox / USA Today)
Starting pitcher, Marco Gonzales (29): It’s been a weird season for Gonzales after a breakout 2018. His velocity is down on his fastball (88 mph from 90 in 2018), and his cutter hasn’t been nearly as effective. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up and his hard-hit rate is up nearly 3 percent (from 35 to 37.8). Still, I’m not overly concerned, as I think he’s still a very good pitcher, and I love his bulldog mentality. I think the command of his secondary pitches will improve (we saw that the last time out against the A’s when he allowed one earned run over seven innings).
Starting pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi (29): So far we’ve seen a little of everything from Kikuchi in his first season in the big leagues after coming over from Japan. The fastball will play and the secondary stuff, when he lands it, can be a weapon. He has been better when he’s come back after one of his breaks (after every five or so starts, the team backs off his workload). Kikuchi has really struggled of late (10.35 ERA in his last five starts) and needs to figure out a way to get through innings when he doesn’t have his best stuff, but he’s embraced analytics and wants to get better. By the time 2021 rolls around, I have to think he’ll have it figured out.
Starting pitcher, Logan Gilbert (23): Gilbert, Seattle’s first-round pick a year ago, has been as advertised — if not better — in his first professional season. Because of his extension and reach, his fastball plays up relative to its velocity, resulting in a lot of late swings and missed bats. Gilbert has also gotten back to throwing that sweeping slider with a ton of horizontal movement the Mariners fell in love with in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2017. In two stops this season, he’s gone 4-2 with a 2.11 ERA to go with 88 strikeouts over 48 innings. He’s coming fast, folks.
Starting pitcher, Justus Sheffield (24): Sheffield made news for all the wrong reasons when he was sent from Triple-A Tacoma to Double-A Arkansas after posting a 6.87 ERA over 55 innings in the Pacific Coast League, a terrible place for young pitchers (add in the slick baseballs the PCL is using, and you can get some disastrous results). It’s a step back, but that doesn’t mean Sheffield doesn’t have a bright future. There’s still lots to like here, though his command and pitch execution will have to improve for him to get back to Seattle. The good news is there’s still time, and I have to think another year with the pitching analytics group and coaching staff will help with Sheffield’s development. That said, I can’t say for sure whether Sheffield is anything other than a No. 3 or No. 4 starter based on scouts I’ve talked to.
Starting pitcher, Justin Dunn (25): I thought Seattle would eventually move Dunn to the back end of the bullpen (a move similar to the one Edwin Díaz made a few years back), but the more the Mariners see of Dunn, the more they can envision him in their rotation. He consistently gets ahead of hitters and has struck out 72 batters in 52 innings in Double A with only 18 walks. Some in the organization think he could eventually become a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. He’s been a guy who has outperformed expectations — expectations that were fairly high coming in.
Set-up, Austin Adams (29): To be honest, I thought Gerson Bautista, one of the players the Mariners got from the Mets in the Canó deal, might fit here. He has a ton of velocity and strikeout potential, but his command worries me. Adams, whom the Mariners added in May after a trade with the Nationals, has been very good thanks in large part to the high spin rate on his fastball and a wipeout slider that’s become a big out-pitch for him.
Closer, Ljay Newsome (24): This might be a stretch as well, but we just mentioned how Seattle turned Díaz from a minor-league starter into an All-Star relief pitcher. I’m not saying that’s what will happen with Newsome — or even that the team will convert him — but after attending the team’s “gas camp” earlier this year, his velocity has jumped (from 86-89 mph in 2018 to 91-94 mph). He’s missing a lot of bats at the top of the strike zone at High-A Modesto, and he doesn’t walk anyone (eight in 77 innings against 103 strikeouts). His slider is above average, and he’s working on a changeup. I look at the combo of the fastball/slider and see a nice fit at the back of a bullpen, even if that move doesn’t happen right away. Expect Newsome to get promoted to Double A soon, where we’ll see if he can sustain his fast start.
2021 record prediction: 84-78.
