Division title and WC spot probabilities

[D-train]

Because we went 1-11 vs. the Angels and Tigers, we have a 9% chance to win the division and a 9% chance to get a WC for a total of 18% chance to make the playoffs. Season is pretty much over in mid August. So thankful for Jerry and his sustainability plan.

Screenshot 2024-08-19 10.23.58 AM.png (31.94 KiB) Viewed 494 times

[D-train]

Astros have 39 games left and we have 37 games left. This is what we need to tie them for their 10 likeliest outcomes.


Astros Mariners
17-22 20-17
18-21 21-16
19-20 22-15
20-19 23-14
21-18 24-13
22-17 25-12
23-16 26-11
24-15 27-10
25-14 28-9
26-13 29-8

[Donn Beach]

Those odds seem better than id give them

OT

"Michael Kopech has been the steal of the trade deadline," Nightengale said. "He was 2-8 with a 4.74 ERA with the White Sox, gets traded to the Dodgers, and turns into Dennis Eckersley. He has faced 27 batters, and has given up 1 hit, one walk, with 13 strikeouts. He got the save in the Dodgers' 7-6 win tonight."

[D-train]

I just looked at the schedule. The penultimate series is vs. the Astros at home. If we can be within 2-3 games of them by then and sweep them then we have the advantage because we have the last series vs. the As at home and they have to fly to Cleveland. Just that easy! lol

[D-train]

Tie Breaker is Head to Head
Winner of the Season Series wins the division if they tie.
M's lead 6-4.
Houston has to sweep in Seattle to win the tiebreaker but there won't be a tie if they sweep us obviously.

God if we had just won a series vs. the Tigers and Angels we would have been in business. Just an epic choke job.

[Millikin]

I just looked at the schedule. The penultimate series is vs. the Astros at home. If we can be within 2-3 games of them by then and sweep them then we have the advantage because we have the last series vs. the As at home and they have to fly to Cleveland. Just that easy! lol

This is similar to last season when we had a Texas series, followed by Astros, followed by Texas again and we needed to win around 60% to get into the playoffs but choked. Ended up 2 games behind Texas and Houston.



Yeah losing "easy" series vs Tigers/Angels could be the difference because if it all comes down to a series vs the Astros and then Cleveland, we're probably boned.

[Hy Feiber]

Tie Breaker is Head to Head
Winner of the Season Series wins the division if they tie.
M's lead 6-4.
Houston has to sweep in Seattle to win the tiebreaker but there won't be a tie if they sweep us obviously.

God if we had just won a series vs. the Tigers and Angels we would have been in business. Just an epic choke job.

Astros have 14 games against likely playoff teams.

[D-train]

[Pharmabro]

They looked like world beaters vs the Mets who had the best record over the past 50 games or so. And then they shit themselves vs the Angels, Detroit, and Pit. 5 back in the division and 6.5 back of the WC.

[OLdvanDawg]

We have the series with Houston late in the season but it won’t matter as the M’s will be out of the playoff race by then. Dipoto will make some excuse about working the plan and need to be patient. If they don’t make the playoffs, both SS and JD need to go. They’ve had 8 years.