Who should be back...

[Seattle or Bust]

Lineup:

C: Cal Raleigh - Despite some hitting woes, I think Cal may take a leap forward offensively next year. He's the best defensive catcher and staff manager in baseball.

1B: Luke Raley - As much as I wanted him to hit lefties, they will need a platoon partner for him. But it's tough to dislike Raley. His effort, hustle, and attitude is needed on this team.

2B: Jorge Polanco - Polanco has a .902 OPS in the 2nd half. The $12 million option seems like an easy pickup for a team that doesn't have any 2B's in the pipeline.

SS: JP Crawford - Unfortunately, he's going to get another shot. They'll use injuries as the excuse as to why he didn't have a good season. I don't want him here, but he'll be back. I actually wouldn't mind trading him if I'm honest.

3B: Josh Rojas - He's gotta go. From 5/1 on, Rojas hung just .5 fWAR... and a .206/.282/.301/.583 slash. I don't care if he's the reincarnation of Ozzie Smith at 3B... you'd can't hit that poorly and see time at 3B. Non-tender him.

RF: Mitch Haniger/Dom Canzone /Randy Arozarena- Cut Haniger's money and trade Canzone. If the Mariners FO has any intentions in winning, they'll do what the Astros did and simply eat Haniger's money. Canzone has some power but it's clear he's just another AAAA type in the mold of the Alex Liddi, Stefen Romeros of the world. Arozarena will be back... hopefully have a good year.

CF: Julio Rodriguez - He better turn into prime Juan Soto next year... I'm talking a 40/40 year or he can fuck right off. Perhaps the most disappointing part of this season is Julio's complete and total collapse.

LF: Victor Robles - He's had a tough August seemingly fighting through hip problems... but for the cost and what he's capable of providing, he should be the starting LF next year. He's got a good clubhouse vibe and the energy he brings is needed.

DH: Mitch Garver - Fuck. Mitch. Garver. Ditto what I said about Haniger and the $$.

So who are the FA options at 3B/RF/DH?

3B:

Alex Bregman: Post 5/1, Bregman is 4th in baseball at the position with 3.3 fWAR. Over that time, he slashed .274/.328/.493/.821... You want to cut down on strikeouts? Bregman is your guy. He's K'd no more than 87 times in every season but 1 in his career. He's good for 25 homers and an .800 OPS with solid defense. I see Bregman getting a 5-year deal in the $100 million range.

Matt Chapman: It will be interesting to see if Chapman opts out of his contract with the Giants for more guaranteed money. If he does, the M's ought not to make the mistake of letting him sign elsewhere again. He's hung a 5.5 bWAR and 4.1 fWAR season in '24... continuing his elite defense but coupling it with a better bat than seen from '21-'23. He's got a 122 OPS+ in '24 with a .776 OPS hitting in one of the tougher parks to hit in baseball. I could see him getting a 3–4-year deal in the $80-$100 million range.

RF:

Juan Soto: I can't think of a better way for ownership and the FO to get in the fan's good graces than signing Soto. He's having a monster 7.7 fWAR season in '24 and would be the clear MVP winner if it weren't for Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt. Soto is doing usual Soto things with the bat in '24 with a .302/.433/.612/1.045 slash. I'm expecting something like a 12-year $550 million deal for Soto.

Tyler O'neill: Despite a big year with the bat, O'neill has only hung 2.1 fWAR. He's slashing .262/.351/.524/.875, good for a 136 OPS+. He's a little bit of an injury risk and the defense has regressed from his Gold Glove era. But hey, he could be had somewhat cheaply one might assume.

Michael Conforto: Is it time for Conforto to finally come home? One thing is for sure, the M's could use a consistent left-handed bat in the outfield. Conforto has delt with injuries yet again in '24, but sports a .756 OPS, 115 OPS+ and is on pace for over 20 homers despite missing 40+ games.

Anthony Santander: It will be interesting to see if the Orioles rise up and offer Santander a contract this off season. He's the lone veteran stalwart on a very young team and has hit right in the middle of their lineup during their recent run of success. He's slashing .237/.304/.523/.827 and has replaced better OBP/contact numbers with more power in '24.

Jurickson Profar: Profar is having an amazing walk year for the Padres slashing .289/.386/.472/.858 with 20 homers. It's possible the numbers are too good to be true and teams will have to analyze if the risk is worth a decent contract.

DH:

I don't really see the M's signing any of the DH options available... Instead, they might go get 2x of these outfielders and rotate them through the DH slot.

Starting Pitching:

Logan Gilbert - Until Luis Rivas made an error last night, Gilbert was in the Cy Young race. He took a big leap forward in '24 and is not a glorified ace.

George Kirby - Kirby had a slow start to '24 and is prone to a tough start or 2, but he had a pretty amazing run from May to mid-August. He's the clear no. 2 on this team and would be an ace most rotations.

Luis Castillo - Castillo may be on the trade block if the M's are looking to trade some pitching for a bat. Despite a rough start to the year, Castillo has settled in nicely, pitching to a 3.51 ERA. He's a solid no. 3 in this rotation, but might even be the best no. 5 in baseball when you consider Miller and Woo.

Bryce Miller - Miller has quietly been a total stud in '24, pitching to a 3.21 ERA in just his 2nd season. His secondary stuff took a big leap forward in '24 and he's ascending into a top of the rotation starter.

Bryan Woo - I had my reservations about Woo, but teams simply cannot hit his fastball. The injuries and short starts have been annoying, but Woo's stuff is clearly elite. Hopefully he can hang 150+ innings next year, because he's yet to eclipse 100 as a professional pitcher.

Free Agent Starters:

None, all starting pitchers will likely be back unless Castillo is traded for offense.

Bullpen:

Closer: Andres Munoz - I'm hoping he can find a bit more health in '25, but the performance has been electric. He's young and a star reliever.

High Leverage: Matt Brash - Brash will be a welcome addition back following Tommy John. His strikeout stuff has been sorely missed in '24. Gregory Santos - Hopefully Santos can have a healthy season in '25. The stuff is there to make a combo of Munoz, Brash, Santos the most elite back end in baseball.

Mid Leverage: Collin Snider - Snider has been a stud over 27 appearances in '24. He's got a 1.01 ERA and will be back. Trent Thorton - Thorton has been dogshit in '24. He's gone. Gabe Spierer - Same can be said for Spierer... his velo has dipped 3-4 MPH and injuries have taken their toll. JT Chargois - Chargois has had a stellar '24 and he'll be back in his final year of arb in '24.

Low Leverage: Austin Voth - Is Voth amazing? No... but he's a somewhat inexpensive 6th/7th inning guy who doesn't hurt you. Tayler Saucedo - Sauce probably should have kept his mouth shut assessing the offense and the team's performance. He's been horrific in the 2nd half... allowing a 1.153 OPS to opposing hitters. Troy Taylor - Taylor looks like a stud and will be in the pen in '24.

Free Agent Relievers:

Yimi Garcia will go elsewhere... I don't see them M's spending any money on high leverage relievers given that Munoz/Brash/Santos will be the back end of the pen. Snider/Chargois/Voth/Taylor are all solid middle reliever options. I think the M's will need to sign a lefty arm for the pen... perhaps the M's do make a splash for a lefty in a guy like AJ Minter or Tanner Scott... but it's likely a name we haven't heard of.

[Seattle or Bust]

Here's a quick little off-season plan:

1. Julio Rodriguez CF
2. Randy Arozarena DH/RF
3. Jorge Polanco 2B
4. Tyler O'Neill DH/RF
5. Cal Raleigh C
6. Alex Bregman 3B
7. Victor Robles LF
8. Luke Raley 1B
9. JP Crawford SS

Bench: Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss, M's sign a backup catcher.

DFA Haniger and Garver, non-tender Josh Rojas. Put Canzone in the minors or trade him.

Sign Tyler O'Neill - 2 years, $28 million.
Sign Alex Bregman - 4 years, $80 million.

1. Logan Gilbert
2. George Kirby
3. Luis Castillo
4. Bryce Miller
5. Bryan Woo

Closer: Andres Munoz
HL: Matt Brash, Gregory Santos
ML: Collin Snider, JT Chargois, Troy Taylor
LL: Austin Voth, Sign or trade for a lefty reliever.

[Captain 97]

I think they should look at trading Castillo if they can find a taker. Get his salary off the books and spend it on a hitter. Flip whatever prospects we get back for more hitters.

[Seattle or Bust]

I think they should look at trading Castillo if they can find a taker. Get his salary off the books and spend it on a hitter. Flip whatever prospects we get back for more hitters.

My only problem with that is who do you then replace him with?

3.51 ERA's and being able to cover 180+ innings doesn't grow on trees.

There's plenty of solid bats to be had in free agency given the M's holes.

[D-train]

I think they should look at trading Castillo if they can find a taker. Get his salary off the books and spend it on a hitter. Flip whatever prospects we get back for more hitters.

My only problem with that is who do you then replace him with?

3.51 ERA's and being able to cover 180+ innings doesn't grow on trees.

There's plenty of solid bats to be had in free agency given the M's holes.

Hancock has been pitching well in the hitter friendly PCL. Downgrade from Castillo but a good 5th starter.

[toboggan]

If our players are allowed to play full seasons, not half or part seasons constantly being platooned, I think we'll have a better team all around. Part of the problem is with as much swapping and rotating as Servais has done, our guys haven't really had a chance to develop over a season properly because the majority of them don't know if they'll be playing every day. That does have an affect on their mindset, how they see the ball, and play. Make changes at the all star break and trade deadline for those who aren't working out and let it be. I just don't think our current staff has been given a legitimate chance to develop themselves over time.

[Big_Maple]

Love your plan, SoB.

I would make 2 big changes, though:

First, open the fucking wallets and land Soto. It's totally possible if we just agree to spend what it takes. He will be worth it in jersey sales alone. Soto could be the spark - and role model - that JRod finally needs to get his act together, and a JRod, Soto, Arozorena outfield could be really, fucking scary.

Second, trade Castillo. He's too inconsistent, and as D-Train's father observed, he obsesses too much about his hair. I just don't think he will ever be an ace, and we are going to owe him a shit ton of money. Trade him. Then, spend like a sailor on shore leave and get Snell. As someone else pointed out recently, he actually wants to pitch for the Mariners, and he's not just lightening in a bottle.

So yeah - I love your overall plan, SoB. I just think with 2 huge headliners deals, the M's will finally have all of the pieces to get us to the promised land. Ownership has to show us that they're serious, and nibbling around the edges is not working.

[Captain 97]

I think they should look at trading Castillo if they can find a taker. Get his salary off the books and spend it on a hitter. Flip whatever prospects we get back for more hitters.

My only problem with that is who do you then replace him with?

3.51 ERA's and being able to cover 180+ innings doesn't grow on trees.

There's plenty of solid bats to be had in free agency given the M's holes.

The other 4 aren't even in their primes yet. With continued improvement from them you should be able to plug in a serviceable #5 without a big drop in the overall numbers of the staff. right now looking at their bWAR. they are on pace for.....

Woo 3.0
Gilbert 2.9
Miller 2.5
Castillo 2.4
Kirby 2.2

If they can each add on about a half WAR (which doesn't seem unreasonable) you would really only need a slightly above replacement level pitcher in the #5 spot to keep the status quo.

[Walla Walla Dawg II]

Lineup:

C: Cal Raleigh - Despite some hitting woes, I think Cal may take a leap forward offensively next year. He's the best defensive catcher and staff manager in baseball.

1B: Luke Raley - As much as I wanted him to hit lefties, they will need a platoon partner for him. But it's tough to dislike Raley. His effort, hustle, and attitude is needed on this team.

2B: Jorge Polanco - Polanco has a .902 OPS in the 2nd half. The $12 million option seems like an easy pickup for a team that doesn't have any 2B's in the pipeline.

SS: JP Crawford - Unfortunately, he's going to get another shot. They'll use injuries as the excuse as to why he didn't have a good season. I don't want him here, but he'll be back. I actually wouldn't mind trading him if I'm honest.

3B: Josh Rojas - He's gotta go. From 5/1 on, Rojas hung just .5 fWAR... and a .206/.282/.301/.583 slash. I don't care if he's the reincarnation of Ozzie Smith at 3B... you'd can't hit that poorly and see time at 3B. Non-tender him.

RF: Mitch Haniger/Dom Canzone /Randy Arozarena- Cut Haniger's money and trade Canzone. If the Mariners FO has any intentions in winning, they'll do what the Astros did and simply eat Haniger's money. Canzone has some power but it's clear he's just another AAAA type in the mold of the Alex Liddi, Stefen Romeros of the world. Arozarena will be back... hopefully have a good year.

CF: Julio Rodriguez - He better turn into prime Juan Soto next year... I'm talking a 40/40 year or he can fuck right off. Perhaps the most disappointing part of this season is Julio's complete and total collapse.

LF: Victor Robles - He's had a tough August seemingly fighting through hip problems... but for the cost and what he's capable of providing, he should be the starting LF next year. He's got a good clubhouse vibe and the energy he brings is needed.

DH: Mitch Garver - Fuck. Mitch. Garver. Ditto what I said about Haniger and the $$.

So who are the FA options at 3B/RF/DH?

3B:

Alex Bregman: Post 5/1, Bregman is 4th in baseball at the position with 3.3 fWAR. Over that time, he slashed .274/.328/.493/.821... You want to cut down on strikeouts? Bregman is your guy. He's K'd no more than 87 times in every season but 1 in his career. He's good for 25 homers and an .800 OPS with solid defense. I see Bregman getting a 5-year deal in the $100 million range.

Matt Chapman: It will be interesting to see if Chapman opts out of his contract with the Giants for more guaranteed money. If he does, the M's ought not to make the mistake of letting him sign elsewhere again. He's hung a 5.5 bWAR and 4.1 fWAR season in '24... continuing his elite defense but coupling it with a better bat than seen from '21-'23. He's got a 122 OPS+ in '24 with a .776 OPS hitting in one of the tougher parks to hit in baseball. I could see him getting a 3–4-year deal in the $80-$100 million range.

RF:

Juan Soto: I can't think of a better way for ownership and the FO to get in the fan's good graces than signing Soto. He's having a monster 7.7 fWAR season in '24 and would be the clear MVP winner if it weren't for Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt. Soto is doing usual Soto things with the bat in '24 with a .302/.433/.612/1.045 slash. I'm expecting something like a 12-year $550 million deal for Soto.

Tyler O'neill: Despite a big year with the bat, O'neill has only hung 2.1 fWAR. He's slashing .262/.351/.524/.875, good for a 136 OPS+. He's a little bit of an injury risk and the defense has regressed from his Gold Glove era. But hey, he could be had somewhat cheaply one might assume.

Michael Conforto: Is it time for Conforto to finally come home? One thing is for sure, the M's could use a consistent left-handed bat in the outfield. Conforto has delt with injuries yet again in '24, but sports a .756 OPS, 115 OPS+ and is on pace for over 20 homers despite missing 40+ games.

Anthony Santander: It will be interesting to see if the Orioles rise up and offer Santander a contract this off season. He's the lone veteran stalwart on a very young team and has hit right in the middle of their lineup during their recent run of success. He's slashing .237/.304/.523/.827 and has replaced better OBP/contact numbers with more power in '24.

Jurickson Profar: Profar is having an amazing walk year for the Padres slashing .289/.386/.472/.858 with 20 homers. It's possible the numbers are too good to be true and teams will have to analyze if the risk is worth a decent contract.

DH:

I don't really see the M's signing any of the DH options available... Instead, they might go get 2x of these outfielders and rotate them through the DH slot.

Starting Pitching:

Logan Gilbert - Until Luis Rivas made an error last night, Gilbert was in the Cy Young race. He took a big leap forward in '24 and is not a glorified ace.

George Kirby - Kirby had a slow start to '24 and is prone to a tough start or 2, but he had a pretty amazing run from May to mid-August. He's the clear no. 2 on this team and would be an ace most rotations.

Luis Castillo - Castillo may be on the trade block if the M's are looking to trade some pitching for a bat. Despite a rough start to the year, Castillo has settled in nicely, pitching to a 3.51 ERA. He's a solid no. 3 in this rotation, but might even be the best no. 5 in baseball when you consider Miller and Woo.

Bryce Miller - Miller has quietly been a total stud in '24, pitching to a 3.21 ERA in just his 2nd season. His secondary stuff took a big leap forward in '24 and he's ascending into a top of the rotation starter.

Bryan Woo - I had my reservations about Woo, but teams simply cannot hit his fastball. The injuries and short starts have been annoying, but Woo's stuff is clearly elite. Hopefully he can hang 150+ innings next year, because he's yet to eclipse 100 as a professional pitcher.

Free Agent Starters:

None, all starting pitchers will likely be back unless Castillo is traded for offense.

Bullpen:

Closer: Andres Munoz - I'm hoping he can find a bit more health in '25, but the performance has been electric. He's young and a star reliever.

High Leverage: Matt Brash - Brash will be a welcome addition back following Tommy John. His strikeout stuff has been sorely missed in '24. Gregory Santos - Hopefully Santos can have a healthy season in '25. The stuff is there to make a combo of Munoz, Brash, Santos the most elite back end in baseball.

Mid Leverage: Collin Snider - Snider has been a stud over 27 appearances in '24. He's got a 1.01 ERA and will be back. Trent Thorton - Thorton has been dogshit in '24. He's gone. Gabe Spierer - Same can be said for Spierer... his velo has dipped 3-4 MPH and injuries have taken their toll. JT Chargois - Chargois has had a stellar '24 and he'll be back in his final year of arb in '24.

Low Leverage: Austin Voth - Is Voth amazing? No... but he's a somewhat inexpensive 6th/7th inning guy who doesn't hurt you. Tayler Saucedo - Sauce probably should have kept his mouth shut assessing the offense and the team's performance. He's been horrific in the 2nd half... allowing a 1.153 OPS to opposing hitters. Troy Taylor - Taylor looks like a stud and will be in the pen in '24.

Free Agent Relievers:

Yimi Garcia will go elsewhere... I don't see them M's spending any money on high leverage relievers given that Munoz/Brash/Santos will be the back end of the pen. Snider/Chargois/Voth/Taylor are all solid middle reliever options. I think the M's will need to sign a lefty arm for the pen... perhaps the M's do make a splash for a lefty in a guy like AJ Minter or Tanner Scott... but it's likely a name we haven't heard of.

Great post, lots of thought.
Agree 100%.

[bpj]

Good stuff.

I'd let Raley take part time duty at 1B when he's not in the OF, but I don't think they should let him have 1B when this year's class of 1B has at least three better bats than his.

The biggest upgrades this offseason can be had at 1B and DH imo.