BPJ's Early Offseason Plan

[bpj]

I'm sure things will change as we find out who the buyers and sellers are this offseason, but at this point, this is what I would do.

1) Trade Randy Arozarena for Luis Arraez (4.3 K% this season with a .316 BA) + prospect or RP (San Diego has several second basemen and Profar is a FA)

2) Trade Luis Castillo and Mitch Haniger for Triston Casas (126 wRC+ in his first 800 PA) (I could see the Red Sox getting a guy like Pete Alonso to fill the vacancy this creates)
https://youtu.be/eXhhrK1OOBY (this 3 HR game was from 3 days ago)

3) Trade whatever prospects it takes (besides Laz Montes) for Brent Rooker.


Lineup:

RF- Robles
2B- Arraez
DH- Rooker
CF- Julio
C- Raleigh
LF- Raley
1B- Casas
SS- Crawford
3B- Moore

Bench: Bliss/Garver/Backup OF that never gets to play (I have no problem with Garver as strictly a backup C. Better than someone like Zeby Savala who never had a bat to begin with..)

Rotation:

Logan
Kirby
Woo
Miller
Hancock

Payroll goes down significantly.

Offense goes up significantly.

[Big_Maple]

Interesting - just trades, no free agents. Do you think the M's are not going after anyone of significance this offseason in free agency? That would be consistent with Jerry's history of team building, I guess.

Just a quick question, bpj: as you likely know, I have been a huge fan of Arraez for a while now. I felt like he was "getable" by the Mariners the last two times he was traded, and I was bummed the M's didn't ante up. So I like the idea of trading for him at any time. But my question is this: do you think the Padres would part for him, and if so, just for Arozarena? He's likely going to win another batting title this year, and he is arguably the best leadfoff hitter in baseball right now (the dude just went 20 games without a strikeout!!). Moreover, the Padres have just secured a playoff spot, and Arraez is a big part of that. What's the incentive for the Padres to trade him?

I love the Triston Casas idea. The Sox have an abundance of talent to trade with, and they definitely need starting pitching. And the Haniger salary dump is a fine idea. But in my opinion, the Sox are unlikely to take on 2 very expensive players, even if they plan to flip Haniger in another trade. My guess is that if we trade for any of the stud position players the Sox make available that we will have to part with one of Kirby, Miller, Woo or Gilbert.

Definitely open up the farm to get Rooker.

[D-train]

Interesting - just trades, no free agents. Do you think the M's are not going after anyone of significance this offseason in free agency? That would be consistent with Jerry's history of team building, I guess.

Just a quick question, bpj: as you likely know, I have been a huge fan of Arraez for a while now. I felt like he was "getable" by the Mariners the last two times he was traded, and I was bummed the M's didn't ante up. So I like the idea of trading for him at any time. But my question is this: do you think the Padres would part for him, and if so, just for Arozarena? He's likely going to win another batting title this year, and he is arguably the best leadfoff hitter in baseball right now (the dude just went 20 games without a strikeout!!). Moreover, the Padres have just secured a playoff spot, and Arraez is a big part of that. What's the incentive for the Padres to trade him?

I love the Triston Casas idea. The Sox have an abundance of talent to trade with, and they definitely need starting pitching. And the Haniger salary dump is a fine idea. But in my opinion, the Sox are unlikely to take on 2 very expensive players, even if they plan to flip Haniger in another trade. My guess is that if we trade for any of the stud position players the Sox make available that we will have to part with one of Kirby, Miller, Woo or Gilbert.

Definitely open up the farm to get Rooker.

I had the same question regarding #1 but I am sure we could sweeten the pot to get it done. For number 2 the Red Sox seem to have been penny pinching in recent years so I would be surprised if they take on $70M in payroll for a good not great SP, a totally cooked OFer and Alonso who is just an older Casas. I LOVE #3 obviously.

[Donn Beach]

If you have such a hard on for Rooker then why not trade Montes for him? Seems to me three seasons of Rooker should be as valuable as the odds of what Montes develops into. Smells like prospect hoarding to me. Come on, pull the trigger! let's go to a WS, quit being sissies

[Seattle or Bust]

The ideas are noble there but I think there's issues with all 3 trades:

Trade 1: I don't see the Padres trading Arraez. He's added some contact stability to the team... helped bump them from 20th in batting average to 1st in '24. Arraez hit .320/.354/.398/.752 in the 2nd half striking out just 4 times. They're like 30 and 10 in their last 40... best Padres team record wise in a while will likely try to run it back with what has made them successful.

Trade 2: Casas is listed as a surplus $20 million on MLBTV. Castillo is -$30 million... Haniger -$16.5 million. Now, I think MLBTV's model freaked out when Castillo had the hamstring issue... he was more around $0 in trade value for the entire year. The M's would have to eat a lot of money in this trade for it to even out even if you don't agree with Castillo's value on the website.

Trade 3: Would obviously love Rooker. But if he wasn't available to be had at the deadline, he likely isn't now... more so probably because Jerry is a wuss and won't do what it takes, but it didn't get done. The A's had a half-decent season when they weren't predicted to do so and are headed to a new city for a bit. Rooker is making little money... he'll draw eye balls that the A's need as they're working toward completing their rebuild.

[bpj]

Interesting - just trades, no free agents. Do you think the M's are not going after anyone of significance this offseason in free agency? That would be consistent with Jerry's history of team building, I guess.

Just a quick question, bpj: as you likely know, I have been a huge fan of Arraez for a while now. I felt like he was "getable" by the Mariners the last two times he was traded, and I was bummed the M's didn't ante up. So I like the idea of trading for him at any time. But my question is this: do you think the Padres would part for him, and if so, just for Arozarena? He's likely going to win another batting title this year, and he is arguably the best leadfoff hitter in baseball right now (the dude just went 20 games without a strikeout!!). Moreover, the Padres have just secured a playoff spot, and Arraez is a big part of that. What's the incentive for the Padres to trade him?

Jurickson Profar is also a big part of where the Padres are at- probably a bigger part than Arraez has played in it (4.5 WAR to 1.0 WAR this season)- and he's likely leaving in free agency. Arozarena has 2 years of control left, Arraez just 1, and Arozarena can fill Profars spot adequately. The extra year of control more than evened it out, imo.

The Padres are playing Arraez at 1B (they still have Cronenworth/Bogaerts at 2B), and they're likely capable of signing one of the FA bats to fill 1B that wouldnt set them back at all. I'm not convinced the Mariners are able to sign any FA's.


I love the Triston Casas idea. The Sox have an abundance of talent to trade with, and they definitely need starting pitching. And the Haniger salary dump is a fine idea. But in my opinion, the Sox are unlikely to take on 2 very expensive players, even if they plan to flip Haniger in another trade. My guess is that if we trade for any of the stud position players the Sox make available that we will have to part with one of Kirby, Miller, Woo or Gilbert.

True, may have to even out the value of any/all of these trades by trading some shiny prospects, or it may take a Gilbert instead of Castillo. Very possible we'd have to add some prospects in, but most of them are blocked by guys who will be in Seattle for years anyways.

Definitely open up the farm to get Rooker.

Agreed, I don't think there's any other bats that can fix this lineup like Rooker would. I'd give them 4 or 5 of our top prospects, don't care.

[bpj]

If you have such a hard on for Rooker then why not trade Montes for him? Seems to me three seasons of Rooker should be as valuable as the odds of what Montes develops into. Smells like prospect hoarding to me. Come on, pull the trigger! let's go to a WS, quit being sissies

I'd probably trade Montes if it came down to it. Just don't think it would.

Looking forward to your offseason plan so you can show some original thought for once Donn.

[Big_Maple]

Interesting - just trades, no free agents. Do you think the M's are not going after anyone of significance this offseason in free agency? That would be consistent with Jerry's history of team building, I guess.

Just a quick question, bpj: as you likely know, I have been a huge fan of Arraez for a while now. I felt like he was "getable" by the Mariners the last two times he was traded, and I was bummed the M's didn't ante up. So I like the idea of trading for him at any time. But my question is this: do you think the Padres would part for him, and if so, just for Arozarena? He's likely going to win another batting title this year, and he is arguably the best leadfoff hitter in baseball right now (the dude just went 20 games without a strikeout!!). Moreover, the Padres have just secured a playoff spot, and Arraez is a big part of that. What's the incentive for the Padres to trade him?

Jurickson Profar is also a big part of where the Padres are at- probably a bigger part than Arraez has played in it (4.5 WAR to 1.0 WAR this season)- and he's likely leaving in free agency. Arozarena has 2 years of control left, Arraez just 1, and Arozarena can fill Profars spot adequately. The extra year of control more than evened it out, imo.

The Padres are playing Arraez at 1B (they still have Cronenworth/Bogaerts at 2B), and they're likely capable of signing one of the FA bats to fill 1B that wouldnt set them back at all. I'm not convinced the Mariners are able to sign any FA's.


I love the Triston Casas idea. The Sox have an abundance of talent to trade with, and they definitely need starting pitching. And the Haniger salary dump is a fine idea. But in my opinion, the Sox are unlikely to take on 2 very expensive players, even if they plan to flip Haniger in another trade. My guess is that if we trade for any of the stud position players the Sox make available that we will have to part with one of Kirby, Miller, Woo or Gilbert.

True, may have to even out the value of any/all of these trades by trading some shiny prospects, or it may take a Gilbert instead of Castillo. Very possible we'd have to add some prospects in, but most of them are blocked by guys who will be in Seattle for years anyways.

Definitely open up the farm to get Rooker.

Agreed, I don't think there's any other bats that can fix this lineup like Rooker would. I'd give them 4 or 5 of our top prospects, don't care.

Thanks for this. Totally agree with all of it.

Profar was a make it or break it experiment that completely worked. He's the poster child of what Jerry wanted to accomplish with guys like Garver and Pollock. Granted he had already played for the Padres, and they had a sense of what they were getting. But they only signed him to a 1 year, $1MM deal, so they couldn't have been that confident he'd work out.

I think that if the M's don't go big in FA, they will have to part with one of their stud starters not named Castillo, as well as many of their top tier prospects to really bump their offense. But that's what farm systems are for, right?

[bpj]

This is why I think the Red Sox would benefit from having Castillo.
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Castillo comes at a hugely discounted price compared to similar starters in FA. He only costs $8M more than they just paid James Paxton to pitch this year, for example.

Maybe they can't attach Hanigers dead money to it, maybe they'd rather have a Logan Gilbert. Castillo and Gilbert are both here until 2028, I'd be open to moving either one.

And it's not like the Red Sox should be looking at what they did this season as a good thing. They're missing the playoffs, going to have to make some moves if they want to win.

[D-train]

If you have such a hard on for Rooker then why not trade Montes for him? Seems to me three seasons of Rooker should be as valuable as the odds of what Montes develops into. Smells like prospect hoarding to me. Come on, pull the trigger! let's go to a WS, quit being sissies

Because we can get him without trading Montes for him....