Hawks and the Pythag theory of winning %

[D-train]

The Mariners had this going in 2018 with a good actual winning % through mid season with a very mediocre run differential.

http://www.footballperspective.com/pyth ... -10-games/

[Oso Dorado]

In football, the margin between winning and losing can be quite small, a missed FG here, a dropped pass there, and the record can be very different.
Interesting to look at though.

[Donn Beach]

and my usual...SSS, football's 16 games to baseball's 162...luck really does play a part in a football season, your cluster luck

[D-train]

I think there's something far less random that comes into play. Their philosophy, style of play, RW will to win and his clutch performances

[D-train]

and my usual...SSS, football's 16 games to baseball's 162...luck really does play a part in a football season, your cluster luck

If you think it's small sample size that suggests that you think if they played a hundred games we would lose about 50% or that our Point differential would increase to the point to be in line with an 800 winning percentage. Do you really believe either of those would happen

[Donn Beach]

the winning percentage decreases, the point differential increases

[D-train]

the winning percentage decreases, the point differential increases

yeah I can see that but I don't think you would have have a higher pythag than actual winning % or even equal due to the reasons I mentioned.

[Donn Beach]

Not sure what you are getting at, first I wasn't saying SSS was a reason for something, i was pointing out that 12 football games is a SSS, that to me is a fact, it makes it harder to differentiate between luck and talent. In terms of the question, yeah, those numbers could be outliers because of SSS. I don't believe a .800 winning percentage is sustainable over a 100 games, has a team ever done that? I do believe they are better than .500 over 100 games, hate to think of a PC-RW team not being able to play better than .500 football. So whatever the winning percentage is, i think the point differential comes up to be more in line with it.

[Michael K.]

I think there's something far less random that comes into play. Their philosophy, style of play, RW will to win and his clutch performances

Yep. Look at the way we played against both Atlanta and Philly. Both games are blow outs if some other coaches are running the show, but apete would rather guarantee there are no mistakes. They won both games, but with a more aggressive mindset the margin may have been larger. That doesn’t really come into play in baseball.

[Hanjag]

The Mariners had this going in 2018 with a good actual winning % through mid season with a very mediocre run differential.

http://www.footballperspective.com/pyth ... -10-games/

I think most of that "point Dif" can be chalked up to the pass rush not showing up until Diggs. On paper the Hawks always did have a good D the safety play was just so absolutely horrible that they didn't gel until last week vs Niners.