Is WAR on the horizon?

[bpj]

Personally I think people need to prepare a little bit.

We're being led down a bad path at the moment in my opinion.

Do you think we are on the brink (within 3 years) of civil and/or world war?

[Walla Walla Dawg II]

Kind of wish we could vote for two.

[ddraig]

After today's news from both Russia and China, maybe. Just stock up on six months of food (don't forget the pets), and also make certain you have six months of water. You can use gallon jugs if needed. And don't forget your meds. Another six month supply if you can.

[Donn Beach]

If you want to believe the generals, by 2025

https://time.com/6251419/us-china-general-war-2025/

[D-train]

The fact that throughout all of human history people have determined that fighting with and killing each other is the optimum methodology to resolve disputes is without a doubt the greatest flaw of the species.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Did people determine it or did nature?

[D-train]

Did people determine it or did nature?

Genetics?

[GL_Storm]

No on the likelihood of a world war or even a limited conflict with China in the South China Sea. In terms of near-peer adversaries, there's only China and they have a lot of internal problems right now. Peter Zeihan is predicting that the demographic problems inside China will cause it to collapse by 2050. There's still the possibility that the dying wolf could lash out, but the US seems to be making the right moves to be ready for that possibility.

On the possibility of a Taiwan invasion, you have to consider how difficult that is to pull off logistically. Taiwan has a 100 mile water barrier to protect it. In comparison, the English Channel has protected Great Britain for centuries and is only 20 miles wide at it's shortest point. And China does not have overwhelming military sealift capacity. They could commandeer civilian ships I suppose, but it's still a massive logistical problem to sustain a force across the Taiwan strait.

Russia simply isn't a global power. They are dangerous because of their nuclear stockpile, but fundamentally this is a dying country.

On the possibility of Civil War, I would say no as well. Media plays up the conflicts here, but at the end of the day US institutions are strong and resilient and the economic outlook for the next ten years is strong and that's mostly what matters.

[DanielVogelbach]

The fact that throughout all of human history people have determined that fighting with and killing each other is the optimum methodology to resolve disputes is without a doubt the greatest flaw of the species.

This all comes from religion and statism. It's a cult mindset. I would never fight in a war between "countries". Let the politicians fight.

[ddraig]

No on the likelihood of a world war or even a limited conflict with China in the South China Sea. In terms of near-peer adversaries, there's only China and they have a lot of internal problems right now. Peter Zeihan is predicting that the demographic problems inside China will cause it to collapse by 2050. There's still the possibility that the dying wolf could lash out, but the US seems to be making the right moves to be ready for that possibility.

On the possibility of a Taiwan invasion, you have to consider how difficult that is to pull off logistically. Taiwan has a 100 mile water barrier to protect it. In comparison, the English Channel has protected Great Britain for centuries and is only 20 miles wide at it's shortest point. And China does not have overwhelming military sealift capacity. They could commandeer civilian ships I suppose, but it's still a massive logistical problem to sustain a force across the Taiwan strait.

Russia simply isn't a global power. They are dangerous because of their nuclear stockpile, but fundamentally this is a dying country.

On the possibility of Civil War, I would say no as well. Media plays up the conflicts here, but at the end of the day US institutions are strong and resilient and the economic outlook for the next ten years is strong and that's mostly what matters.

You are correct regarding the "moat" Taiwan has, but if memory serves, Germany air dropped men onto Crete, took control of the airfields, and then brought in additional men and equipment via air. On the other hand, the Taiwanese have learned from history and have hardened their airfields, understanding that is about the only way China could invade. Difficult, but not impossible.

Then too, do you think Vietnam, Japan, The Philippines, and Australia would stand by and watch? Maybe India would, but I doubt it. China doesn't have too many friends in the area (North Korea?) and the Vietnamese beat the Chinese army the last time they engaged. India as well. Still, one never knows.