Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[D-train]

wtf Buck!!??!?!?

[harmony]

The Astros, in their building phase, mainly developed and traded for talent, did they not?

Are we still in the building phase?

And yes - the Stros do mostly trade or sign and develop, but they can also go after some big names in FA. They landed Verlander and Brantley. They just signed Abreu. There's rumors they are pursuing Nimmo.

My point was simply that there is a time to trade (which Jerry does well and often), and there's a time to go after a big name in FA. He should likely sign either a COF or one of the big name SS, but it seems as though the M's are not going after anyone.

That's all.

A year ago tomorrow the Mariners struck early by signing lefthander Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract. MLB Trade Rumors had Ray as the seventh-ranked free agent of the offseason with a projected five-year, $130 million contract:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/ ... kings.html

This year's outfield equivalent might be Brandon Nimmo, whom MLBTR ranks ninth with a projected five-year, $110 million contract:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/ ... 22-23.html

Like Ray, Nimmo is coming off a career year (five months younger than Ray was a year ago).

Are the long-term contracts good investments?

Bear in mind that since signing Ray the Mariners have inked Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo to nine-figure extensions.

[Sexymarinersfan]

wtf Buck!!??!?!?

[TraderGary]

If this is true, what a fucking steaming pile of bullshit. And to that, I say fuck you Dipoto, Stanton, and the rest of the Mariners "brain trust" making these decisions.

For the first time in decades, we actually have an opportunity to field a legitimate WS contender with a couple more key additions. But with the Castillo trade at the deadline last year, we don't really have the assets necessary to trade for impact players that will help put us over the top. So they're answer is to cheap out again despite having a payroll in the bottom half of the league, and shop in the discount bin in one of the most important off seasons in club history? Seriously??

So all the reports about us being in on the four free agent SS was all just PR bullshit as usual. Did they not get the message last year that if you build it, they will come? Do they not understand that if you put a legitimate contender and entertaining product on the field that they will make even more money?? Mariners fans will come out in droves to support a winner. How can they still not comprehend this?!

Look at the fucking Astros, coming off a WS victory. Are they sitting on their hands and patting themselves on the back after yet another successful season? NO! They're still trying to improve on a WS championship, and shockingly, spending money to accomplish it! Wow, the Mariners FO must think the Astros have lost their fucking minds! Winning a WS and still going out and spending money on free agents? Say it ain't so!

In all seriousness, being a fan of this team is a fucking curse. How I wish we had an ownership that wants to win and a GM that understands what it takes to get there.

[Big_Maple]

Are the long-term contracts good investments?

Bear in mind that since signing Ray the Mariners have inked Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo to nine-figure extensions.

Agreed - yes, the M's made a splash last offseason, but arguably at the cost of failing to shore up the offense with one of the many available SS's. They gave Frazier a "prove it" contract instead, and rolled the dice with Winker (although Winker was supposed to be a sure bet and Suarez a bit riskier).

I guess this is a gut feeling - without research and specific data to support it, I feel as though Jerry is a guy who values horse trading. He did it out of necessity for a few years to shed payroll and build up the farm system. But he also seems reluctant to go after big names in FA - maybe because ownership hasn't green lighted it, maybe because he (and ownership) think he can build a better team through trades. As you pointed out in an earlier post today, harmony, none of us work in the Mariners' front office, so maybe I should stay out of armchair GMing!

But if I were armchairing it, I'd say that I think the M's are in a place where trading can still work and play to Jerry's negotiating skills, but that the M's also need to be aggressive with FAs. The off-season is too young to see whether they will or not, but the rumor mills all seem to suggest Jerry is shying away from FAs and focusing on trades (starting with Hernandez).

[harmony]

If this is true, what a fucking steaming pile of bullshit. And to that, I say fuck you Dipoto, Stanton, and the rest of the Mariners "brain trust" making these decisions.

For the first time in decades, we actually have an opportunity to field a legitimate WS contender with a couple more key additions. But with the Castillo trade at the deadline last year, we don't really have the assets necessary to trade for impact players that will help put us over the top. So they're answer is to cheap out again despite having a payroll in the bottom half of the league, and shop in the discount bin in one of the most important off seasons in club history? Seriously??

So all the reports about us being in on the four free agent SS was all just PR bullshit as usual. Did they not get the message last year that if you build it, they will come? Do they not understand that if you put a legitimate contender and entertaining product on the field that they will make even more money?? Mariners fans will come out in droves to support a winner. How can they still not comprehend this?!

Look at the fucking Astros, coming off a WS victory. Are they sitting on their hands and patting themselves on the back after yet another successful season? NO! They're still trying to improve on a WS championship, and shockingly, spending money to accomplish it! Wow, the Mariners FO must think the Astros have lost their fucking minds! Winning a WS and still going out and spending money on free agents? Say it ain't so!

In all seriousness, being a fan of this team is a fucking curse. How I wish we had an ownership that wants to win and a GM that understands what it takes to get there.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Astros overpaid for Jose Abreu, its 19th-ranked free agent who turns 36 in January:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/ ... 22-23.html

FanGraphs, which ranked Abreu 12th, concurs:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/

The Mariners may have dodged a bullet.

Or not.

[bpj]

Yeah, I don't think anyone's upset about not signing Abreu to that contract.

If anything it's just frustrating the team we're chasing is improving themselves while Dipoto waits the market out.

[Optimistic Ms Fan]

I firmly believe we either sign Conforto on a 1 year make good contract or trade for someone. I think we trade for gleyber. And go hard on Senga and get him. Trade off flexen and marco for payroll relief/ low prospect. And that’s how we roll into spring.

[TraderGary]

If this is true, what a fucking steaming pile of bullshit. And to that, I say fuck you Dipoto, Stanton, and the rest of the Mariners "brain trust" making these decisions.

For the first time in decades, we actually have an opportunity to field a legitimate WS contender with a couple more key additions. But with the Castillo trade at the deadline last year, we don't really have the assets necessary to trade for impact players that will help put us over the top. So they're answer is to cheap out again despite having a payroll in the bottom half of the league, and shop in the discount bin in one of the most important off seasons in club history? Seriously??

So all the reports about us being in on the four free agent SS was all just PR bullshit as usual. Did they not get the message last year that if you build it, they will come? Do they not understand that if you put a legitimate contender and entertaining product on the field that they will make even more money?? Mariners fans will come out in droves to support a winner. How can they still not comprehend this?!

Look at the fucking Astros, coming off a WS victory. Are they sitting on their hands and patting themselves on the back after yet another successful season? NO! They're still trying to improve on a WS championship, and shockingly, spending money to accomplish it! Wow, the Mariners FO must think the Astros have lost their fucking minds! Winning a WS and still going out and spending money on free agents? Say it ain't so!

In all seriousness, being a fan of this team is a fucking curse. How I wish we had an ownership that wants to win and a GM that understands what it takes to get there.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Astros overpaid for Jose Abreu, its 19th-ranked free agent who turns 36 in January:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/ ... 22-23.html

FanGraphs, which ranked Abreu 12th, concurs:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/

The Mariners may have dodged a bullet.

Or not.

I agree that the Astros overpaid for Abreu. I would not have been in favor of that contract for the M's. But the point is, the Astros, coming off yet another WS championship are still trying to improve through FA, something the Mariners seem unwilling to do.

Look, I don't want to see them go out and sign 3 or 4 expensive free agents just to handcuff the team for the next 5 or more years with bad contracts. I just want to see them make a legitimate effort to fill a couple obvious holes to give us an opportunity to compete for the division and WS championship, versus shopping in the discount bin like we typically do. As long suffering and diehard fans of this team who I think most of us here have supported from the very beginning, we all deserve that.

I'm totally in favor of building a strong farm and having a steady influx of cost-controlled talent. I absolutely believe that's the best approach for consistent and long-term success. But when you're literally just a couple key additions from being legitimate contenders, and you don't have the talent in the minors to fill those holes, you look to the FA market. That's what the good teams do, the ones that really want to win and don't just pay lip service to it in a thinly veiled attempt to appease the fans.

They built a pitching staff that I believe can compete with anyone in baseball. But offensively, we're clearly not there yet. But they have the resources to make it happen if they're just willing to open the wallets a little more.

What have they told us during these past 3 years of the painful rebuild? "When the time is right and the core is in place, the money will be there to fill the necessary holes to enable us to compete for a championship". Of course I was paraphrasing, but that was the basic message. Now it appears they lied to us all along, and I was one of the fools to take them at their word.

[harmony]

If this is true, what a fucking steaming pile of bullshit. And to that, I say fuck you Dipoto, Stanton, and the rest of the Mariners "brain trust" making these decisions.

For the first time in decades, we actually have an opportunity to field a legitimate WS contender with a couple more key additions. But with the Castillo trade at the deadline last year, we don't really have the assets necessary to trade for impact players that will help put us over the top. So they're answer is to cheap out again despite having a payroll in the bottom half of the league, and shop in the discount bin in one of the most important off seasons in club history? Seriously??

So all the reports about us being in on the four free agent SS was all just PR bullshit as usual. Did they not get the message last year that if you build it, they will come? Do they not understand that if you put a legitimate contender and entertaining product on the field that they will make even more money?? Mariners fans will come out in droves to support a winner. How can they still not comprehend this?!

Look at the fucking Astros, coming off a WS victory. Are they sitting on their hands and patting themselves on the back after yet another successful season? NO! They're still trying to improve on a WS championship, and shockingly, spending money to accomplish it! Wow, the Mariners FO must think the Astros have lost their fucking minds! Winning a WS and still going out and spending money on free agents? Say it ain't so!

In all seriousness, being a fan of this team is a fucking curse. How I wish we had an ownership that wants to win and a GM that understands what it takes to get there.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Astros overpaid for Jose Abreu, its 19th-ranked free agent who turns 36 in January:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/ ... 22-23.html

FanGraphs, which ranked Abreu 12th, concurs:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/

The Mariners may have dodged a bullet.

Or not.

I agree that the Astros overpaid for Abreu. I would not have been in favor of that contract for the M's. But the point is, the Astros, coming off yet another WS championship, are still trying to improve through FA, something the Mariners seem unwilling to do.

Look, I don't want to see them go out and sign 3 or 4 expensive free agents just to handcuff the team for the next 5 or more years with bad contracts. I just want to see them make a legitimate effort to fill a couple obvious holes to give us an opportunity to compete for the division and WS championship, versus shopping in the discount bin like we typically do. As long suffering and diehard fans of this team who I think most of us here have supported from the very beginning, we all deserve that.

I'm totally in favor of building a strong farm and having a steady influx of cost-controlled talent. I absolutely believe that's the best approach for consistent and long-term success. But when you're literally just a couple key additions from being legitimate contenders, and you don't have the talent in the minors to fill those holes, you look to the FA market. That's what the good teams do, the ones that really want to win and don't just pay lip service to it in a thinly veiled attempt to appease the fans.

They built a pitching staff that I believe can compete with anyone in baseball. But offensively, we're clearly not there yet. But they have the resources to make it happen if they're just willing to open the wallets a little more.

What have they told us during these past 3 years of the painful rebuild? "When the time is right and the core is in place, the money will be there to fill the necessary holes to enable us to compete for a championship". Of course I was paraphrasing, but that was the basic message. Now it appears they lied to us all along, and I was one of the fools to take them at their word.

Over the past year the Mariners have handed out three nine-figure contracts, the most in MLB over that period.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/transactiontracker

This year the Mariners posted an OPS+ of 106 and an ERA+ of 104:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2022.shtml

Like every team the Mariners have room for improvement. However, a free agent hitter is likely to see a drop in production with Seattle (and may be less likely to sign with the M's for that reason).