Rumors about Geno extension

[SeattleAddict]

I'm not sure if people aren't understanding the franchise tag or what, but here are the problems:

1) Franchise tags are used when contract negotiations fail. There is absolutely zero reason to stick a franchise tag on a player unless you aren't able to come to a deal. It is unlikely the Seahawks let it go that far UNLESS Geno wants way too much, and if that's the case, giving him the tag could just piss him off.
2) The franchise tag is EXPENSIVE. This past year it was 29.7M for QBs, so it will (I assume) be higher in 2023. If it's going to cost 30+ million, why wouldn't the Seahawks give a more team-friendly multi-year deal for that amount, which would be better for Geno AND the team?
3) Franchise tag money counts fully against the cap in the year that it's used. I think this is how it works, anyway, it's something like that, there may be some nuance. The difference is a 30M cap hit, vs a possible 10-15M cap hit with the remainder (bonus) prorated over the length of the contract. Even if it's only a savings of 8-10M in cap space, that is HUGE for signing free agents and your own guys.
4) JS/PC don't use it. The last time the Seahawks used a franchise tag was on a kicker - Olindo Mare, 13 years ago. They used it on Frank Clark, but that doesn't really count, since it was simply so they could trade him. In fact, the NFL in general doesn't use the franchise tag much, usually only 6-10 teams, and I can't recall a QB getting it any time in recent history.

I'm not saying the franchise tag isn't a viable option down the road - especially if you're betting that Geno is a one-year wonder - but it just doesn't make sense to try to validate it as a strategy at this point. It is a last-ditch effort, not a thing to plan for.

[Captain 97]

Understand it perfectly. Dont want to give him a multi year deal and he wont sign for a one year deal so that leaves the franchise tag. Everyone is saying he is going to make over 30 million anyway so the franchise tag really isnt that expensive. Franchise tag also gives you the opportunity to trade him as well like they did with Frank Clark.

[trharder]

I'm ready to be wrong and I'll admit it when I am, but
I don't think any team is going to pay Geno 30 million. He's the non-heartattack having 32yo version of Damar Hamlin.
No team is going to invest their future in him. To do so a team would have to pretend that the whole league was wrong
about him for 7 years and now we are seeing the real Geno who is a legit starter. You'd have to pretend what happened
to Denver was just a one off and Geno isn't a product of Pete Carroll. You'd have to ignore the fact that he's been throwing
ridiculous interceptions despite the fact his daddy Pete prizes ball control over everything.
I think Pete and JS know better.

[SeattleAddict]

I'm ready to be wrong and I'll admit it when I am, but
I don't think any team is going to pay Geno 30 million. He's the non-heartattack having 32yo version of Damar Hamlin.
No team is going to invest their future in him. To do so a team would have to pretend that the whole league was wrong
about him for 7 years and now we are seeing the real Geno who is a legit starter. You'd have to pretend what happened
to Denver was just a one off and Geno isn't a product of Pete Carroll. You'd have to ignore the fact that he's been throwing
ridiculous interceptions despite the fact his daddy Pete prizes ball control over everything.
I think Pete and JS know better.

I think that is an accurate assessment of Pete and JS... but the league has shown it will pay a ridiculous amount for a QB. I am not a fan of spending 30+ on Geno, but SOMEBODY will. So many teams are desperate for a good QB that they'll pay a guy they think is good like he is great.

I'm against the franchise tag idea simply because of the cap hit - 30M in 2023 is much harder to absorb than a 3 year, 80M contract that can be spread out and provides security. Otherwise, you just have to deal with the same thing next year. Either way, you still need to draft an heir apparent, and those are iffy at best. I'd rather have a trusted veteran QB around with a hotshot rookie waiting than have to put the hotshot rookie out there before he's ready.

We can hope we get lucky, but I still remember the pre-Russ years without a QB for what felt like forever. Don't want any of that again.

[Cascade Kid]

I'm ready to be wrong and I'll admit it when I am, but
I don't think any team is going to pay Geno 30 million. He's the non-heartattack having 32yo version of Damar Hamlin.
No team is going to invest their future in him. To do so a team would have to pretend that the whole league was wrong
about him for 7 years and now we are seeing the real Geno who is a legit starter. You'd have to pretend what happened
to Denver was just a one off and Geno isn't a product of Pete Carroll. You'd have to ignore the fact that he's been throwing
ridiculous interceptions despite the fact his daddy Pete prizes ball control over everything.
I think Pete and JS know better.

Yesterday, that first pick was all DK. That was an awful route that let Ramsey undercut the throw. DK needs to help out his QB more than that and flatten that route out or come back on it a bit. This kind of lazy route running out of DK has happened mulitple times this year. DK certainly has room for improvement on things like this.

That second pick was pretty bad though on a 2nd & 7. Geno could have dumped it to the out-route fairly easy and may have moved the sticks. But even the best QBs make boneheaded mistakes like he did.

I get down on Geno too and can get a bit nitpicky about him because I think he can always do better. He misses some wide open shit sometimes. But the guy ain't doing bad and isn't getting lucky. Geno has become a great product of a system with a great playbook design, but that isn't a bad thing if it works like it does. He's a better player now because of this and should be rewarded. Hopefully he understands the relationship he's in and desires to remain in it without gobbling up all of the cap space.

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to have seen the Hawks more in a direction that is more directed toward longer-term future goals.

[trharder]

I get down on Geno too and can get a bit nitpicky about him because I think he can always do better. He misses some wide open shit sometimes. But the guy ain't doing bad and isn't getting lucky. Geno has become a great product of a system with a great playbook design, but that isn't a bad thing if it works like it does. He's a better player now because of this and should be rewarded. Hopefully he understands the relationship he's in and desires to remain in it without gobbling up all of the cap space. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to have seen the Hawks more in a direction that is more directed toward longer-term future goals.

After choosing to part ways with RW in favor of rebuilding without him, it's doesn't make sense to then turn around and put a lot of
chips in on Geno. I think Pete and JS would like to have him back. I'm fine with him coming back. But I don't think they are
ready to pay him like he's "the guy". Pete thinks the system makes the QB. He plans on having good QB play because the running
game is opening up the passing game. We've seen enough to know that when the Hawks can't run and the opposing defense is
molesting Geno with their ears back, he has no answer. (most QBs don't). He can't carry or create the offense beyond what his
teammates can provided. (few can).

In my mind, if and when I'm wrong, it will be more because of general NFL player salary and salary cap inflation than faith in Geno.

[Michael K.]

I'm ready to be wrong and I'll admit it when I am, but
I don't think any team is going to pay Geno 30 million. He's the non-heartattack having 32yo version of Damar Hamlin.
No team is going to invest their future in him. To do so a team would have to pretend that the whole league was wrong
about him for 7 years and now we are seeing the real Geno who is a legit starter. You'd have to pretend what happened
to Denver was just a one off and Geno isn't a product of Pete Carroll. You'd have to ignore the fact that he's been throwing
ridiculous interceptions despite the fact his daddy Pete prizes ball control over everything.
I think Pete and JS know better.

I think that is an accurate assessment of Pete and JS... but the league has shown it will pay a ridiculous amount for a QB. I am not a fan of spending 30+ on Geno, but SOMEBODY will. So many teams are desperate for a good QB that they'll pay a guy they think is good like he is great.

I'm against the franchise tag idea simply because of the cap hit - 30M in 2023 is much harder to absorb than a 3 year, 80M contract that can be spread out and provides security. Otherwise, you just have to deal with the same thing next year. Either way, you still need to draft an heir apparent, and those are iffy at best. I'd rather have a trusted veteran QB around with a hotshot rookie waiting than have to put the hotshot rookie out there before he's ready.

We can hope we get lucky, but I still remember the pre-Russ years without a QB for what felt like forever. Don't want any of that again.

I think the thought process here is they have the draft capital to win next year with improvements around Geno. Tagging him is going to take a hit out of the cap, but are there really that many game changing free agents that we won't be able to sign because of it? He isn't worth the risk long term, but would certainly make them a playoff contender next year, with improvements to the roster. We have the draft capital to make those improvements, and will not run out of cap space simply because we tag him. It will at least be very interesting to see how they approach this. Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be the second coming of John Elway, and they are only in the playoffs in his second season because the Titans shit the bed. I am not sure Pete and John want to wait two or more years for the rookie to figure it out. So, maybe they draft the guy this year and let him learn behind Geno, hoping that learning curve is sped up by not being forced into action? Like Mahomes? But, there is no Mahomes in this draft, and if they take one with the #5 pick, he is kind of going to be expected to start pretty soon next year, right?

I am glad it's not my decision to make, because my feeling on next year and who should be our QB changes all the damn time!

[douche]

I'm not sure if people aren't understanding the franchise tag or what, but here are the problems:

1) Franchise tags are used when contract negotiations fail. There is absolutely zero reason to stick a franchise tag on a player unless you aren't able to come to a deal. It is unlikely the Seahawks let it go that far UNLESS Geno wants way too much, and if that's the case, giving him the tag could just piss him off.
2) The franchise tag is EXPENSIVE. This past year it was 29.7M for QBs, so it will (I assume) be higher in 2023. If it's going to cost 30+ million, why wouldn't the Seahawks give a more team-friendly multi-year deal for that amount, which would be better for Geno AND the team?
3) Franchise tag money counts fully against the cap in the year that it's used. I think this is how it works, anyway, it's something like that, there may be some nuance. The difference is a 30M cap hit, vs a possible 10-15M cap hit with the remainder (bonus) prorated over the length of the contract. Even if it's only a savings of 8-10M in cap space, that is HUGE for signing free agents and your own guys.
4) JS/PC don't use it. The last time the Seahawks used a franchise tag was on a kicker - Olindo Mare, 13 years ago. They used it on Frank Clark, but that doesn't really count, since it was simply so they could trade him. In fact, the NFL in general doesn't use the franchise tag much, usually only 6-10 teams, and I can't recall a QB getting it any time in recent history.

I'm not saying the franchise tag isn't a viable option down the road - especially if you're betting that Geno is a one-year wonder - but it just doesn't make sense to try to validate it as a strategy at this point. It is a last-ditch effort, not a thing to plan for.

Cousins 6 years ago... and you're right, the franchise tag is expensive. From Bucky Brooks:

While it will likely take a hard-line stance from the NFLPA to revamp the Collective Bargaining Agreement when it expires in 2021, the players should take a long, hard look at how Kirk Cousins has manipulated the system to put himself in a position to receive an NBA-like contract. Whether that deal occurs before the July 17th deadline is somewhat inconsequential because the Washington Redskins' QB1 has shown the football world how a player can parlay the dreaded franchise tag into a king's ransom.

Before I take a deep dive into how Cousins gamed the system, I believe it is important to understand both sides of the deal and why the Redskins were right to hedge their bet on the plucky quarterback when his rookie contract expired at the end of the 2015 season. Despite showing promise as the team's unexpected starting quarterback following Robert Griffin III's implosion, Cousins was a former fourth-round pick with a game that put him squarely into the game manager category. Sure, he completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 4,166 yards in 2015. He also posted a 29:11 touchdown-to-interception ratio and guided the Redskins to the NFC East title. Still, despite all of that, he didn't necessarily look like a quarterback who could put an offense on his back and lift everyone's play. Cousins sported an 11-14 regular-season record through the 2015 campaign, and his team had failed to win a postseason game under his guidance.

Thus, at this time last year, the Redskins were wise to value him in the $16 million range when it came to a long-term deal, as a solid starter in the league. Remember, Aaron Rodgers is widely viewed as the current gold standard at the position, and his $22 million average topped the NFL in 2015, according to Spotrac.com. The Redskins reportedly offered Cousins a deal at the time that would've placed him among the likes of Andy Dalton ($16 million) and Alex Smith ($17 million). Considering Cousins' production and performance to that point, I believe it was a reasonable valuation of the young quarterback by the team. He certainly didn't belong in the elite category of QBs earning $20-plus million per year, alongside Super Bowl champs like Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees. So, the Redskins were smart to slap the franchise tag ($19.95 million) on him and force him to play on a "prove it" deal that would allow the team to see if he is really a franchise quarterback or a system player who shines in a scheme that masks his deficiencies as a player.

In theory, the one-year deal protected the Redskins from overpaying for Cousins' services long term, while allowing the emerging field general to essentially audition for the quarterback-needy teams around the league. Although the team would be forced to pay big bucks to Cousins if he played at a high level -- via a long-term deal or through the reapplication of the franchise tag (compensation is equal to 120 percent of the previous salary -- the risk was well worth the reward at that point.

Now, it is easy to suggest that the Redskins should've opened up the coffers one year ago, because Cousins posted another impressive statistical season in 2016. He nearly made it to 5,000 yards passing (4,917) and finished with a 25:12 TD-to-INT ratio as the point man for an offense that ranked third in total yards (403.4 per game) and second in passing yards (297.4).

So, now the Redskins should be compelled to break the bank for a quarterback who is seemingly on the rise, right?

Not so fast.

Despite his individual success and the offense's spectacular production, the Redskins finished the season 8-7-1 and failed to make the playoffs largely due to a disappointing slump down the stretch. The team lost four of its final six games, with Cousins faltering in key bouts against the Cardinals, Panthers and Giants. With a 19-21-1 career record also raising doubts about his ability to help a team play at a championship level, the Redskins were in quite a predicament when trying to determine whether to marry their franchise quarterback or continue dating him without a ring in sight.

One NFC pro scouting director told me: "He is a solid starter capable of winning games when surrounded by supreme talent in that system, but I don't think he is a difference maker. ... I would have a tough time paying $25 million for a guy that I don't believe can carry us to the Super Bowl."

While Cousins has put up the numbers needed to command a hefty salary, there are some holes on his resume (sub-.500 record and zero playoff wins) that should make the Redskins pause.

Remember, Cousins thrived with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon serving as his top two receivers. Say what you want about their individual flaws -- Jackson is one of the most prolific big-play receivers in NFL history and Garcon is an established chain mover with outstanding running skills. In a Jay Gruden offense that's built around the premise of accumulating "YAC" (yards after catch) on quick-rhythm throws, that duo made Cousins' life much easier in the pocket.

Now, I know those statements will paint Cousins as a "system quarterback," but the veteran passer can't overcome that stigma until he wins at a high level as the driving force of the offense. It was only three seasons ago that Cousins was benched in favor of Colt McCoy, and I'm sure that it is hard for some officials in the organization to see a $20 million difference between the two when it comes to talent. During a six-game run in 2014, McCoy completed over 71 percent of his passes with a 4:3 TD-to-INT ratio and a 96.4 passer rating. Those numbers are nearly identical to Cousins' production as a starter, which gives credence to the suggestion that the Redskins will be fine if their current QB1 moves on following the 2017 season.

That brings me back to how Cousins perfectly played his hand when the team questioned his potential as a franchise quarterback. Instead of settling for a low-ball offer that would've lumped him into the position's middle class, Cousins opted to sign the franchise tag immediately in 2016. This move guaranteed the former fourth-round pick nearly $20 million -- after he had earned just $2.6 million on his four-year rookie deal. In addition, the quick signing allowed him to continue to work on his game with his teammates during OTAs (organized team activities) and minicamps at the Redskins' facility. He knew the team would ultimately use performance and production on a "prove it" deal to set the bar on a long-term deal. The decision to come in and build chemistry with his teammates put Cousins in a position to play at a high level during the regular season.

From a financial standpoint, the decision to play on the original franchise tag gave Cousins an opportunity to sign an additional tag (at a boosted rate) this offseason. With that amounting to about $24 million, he now stands to pocket $44 million on essentially a two-year deal -- or he could break the bank on a long-term extension with the Redskins.

Fresh off his first Pro Bowl season, Cousins has not only done enough to earn a big paycheck from the Redskins, but he has convinced a number of teams that he is at least a mid-to-upper-echelon starter. Given that the new standard for elite quarterback compensation sits around the $25 million mark (Derek Carr, $25 million; Andrew Luck, $24.6 million, Drew Brees, $24.3 million), Cousins sits in the catbird seat with a hefty long-term deal on the horizon or the prospect of a third franchise tag (or transition tag). With a third franchise tag likely valued around $34 million and the transition tag coming in at about $29 million, Cousins could earn $72 million to $78 million over a three-year period. Considering those numbers, why would he ever entertain the possibility of signing a long-term deal that doesn't give him oodles and oodles of guaranteed money?

[Michael K.]

So, much like the issue with Cousins...Seattle can either pay him a long term deal and hope this wasn't an outlier season, let him walk and REALLY hope this WAS an outlier season, or tag him, hope for the best next year and that maybe they can develop his replacement. If the goal is to contend next year, the Tag is the way, IMO. But, maybe they think they can hit another home run in this draft, add enough Free Agents with the money saved that they can get by with a rookie QB next year and still win? I am not sure that happens unless they use that Top 5 pick, and not sure I want them to do that.

[ddraig]

I don't see the Hawks using the franchise tag. Too expensive against the cap. Is Geno worth $30 million a year? Nope. So, perhaps offer him a 2 or 3 year deal for $12 million a year. There is always room to go up on that, but I wouldn't go above $15 million per year.