The slightly too early trade deadline thread

[D-train]

I am thinking about circling back to Tampa and Lowe.
I thought it made a good pair in the off-season.

In the 12 games he has been back he has a .753 OPS and in 62 games this year he is at a 97 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR
He is not super cheap after this year 5.3M prorated, He jumps to 8.75: Team options 10.5, and 11.5 for ages He is 28 so 29,30, 31.
That back is concerning to say the least. But, realistically he is a guy that could find himself in the MVP race if fully healthy. IN only 2 of his years has he been a healthy player 2020 56/60, 2021 149/162, he was top 10 in MVP both years. (140 and 152 OPS+)
His value on MLB trade calc is 13M

The Rays top 3 prospects are SS, and 2X 2B/3B prospects.

Tampa has
3B Isaac Paredes 137 OPS+ 24 years old
SS Wander Franco 118 OPS+ 4.3 WAR so far

TB Ray's catcher suck and they have no high ranked catchers .
SO the return could be either or both
Ford C M's #1 21M
Or
Murphy 141 OPS + catchers are more valuable then the listed 1.4 M on trade calc. With Murphy I would think the M's are sending maybe 1 or 2 prospects in the top 30 but not premium ones.

With Ford the Rays are sending 1 their top 10 sweetener.

This would be a super risky trade. The values of Lowe could have a huge spam of ranges. It is just something to think about.

I like your posts but they often take some deciphering. I wish you would consider how readable you are before clicking on the submit button.

In this case I'm wondering who is "Ford C #1 21M"? Is that Harry Ford? Is the "C" supposed to mean that the player is a Catcher and the "#1" that he was a first round draft pick? What is the "21M"? Is it really so hard to just write the player's name?

Anyway, if you're suggesting giving up anything of value for Brandon Lowe, I think that's a mistake. Lowe should be highly gettable for the simple reason that he hasn't been very productive for 2 seasons now and he's currently sporting a .207 BA, and the Rays are on the hook for his moderate salary next year, which to them is probably an issue. I suspect this is more of an offseason deal but I guess it could happen at the deadline. Maybe you give up Robert Perez Jr. for him, or something like that. Maybe Juan Pinto. Even if you're down on Harry Ford right now, you don't give him up for a player that might not be playing ball a year from now. That's just stupid.

As for whether Lowe is a good move to make, I would say maybe. But I think there are probably better opportunities out there, especially if you're willing to give up Harry Ford, which I would rather they not do but they aren't consulting me on these matters.

[D-train]

This is great baseball game. That is all we ask.

[Seattle or Bust]

I am thinking about circling back to Tampa and Lowe.
I thought it made a good pair in the off-season.

In the 12 games he has been back he has a .753 OPS and in 62 games this year he is at a 97 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR
He is not super cheap after this year 5.3M prorated, He jumps to 8.75: Team options 10.5, and 11.5 for ages He is 28 so 29,30, 31.
That back is concerning to say the least. But, realistically he is a guy that could find himself in the MVP race if fully healthy. IN only 2 of his years has he been a healthy player 2020 56/60, 2021 149/162, he was top 10 in MVP both years. (140 and 152 OPS+)
His value on MLB trade calc is 13M

The Rays top 3 prospects are SS, and 2X 2B/3B prospects.

Tampa has
3B Isaac Paredes 137 OPS+ 24 years old
SS Wander Franco 118 OPS+ 4.3 WAR so far

TB Ray's catcher suck and they have no high ranked catchers .
SO the return could be either or both
Ford C M's #1 21M
Or
Murphy 141 OPS + catchers are more valuable then the listed 1.4 M on trade calc. With Murphy I would think the M's are sending maybe 1 or 2 prospects in the top 30 but not premium ones.

With Ford the Rays are sending 1 their top 10 sweetener.

This would be a super risky trade. The values of Lowe could have a huge spam of ranges. It is just something to think about.

MLBTV overvalues Lowe because they have a boner for cheap control.

You could trade a decent bullpen arm and like TT for him.

[Pharmabro]

I am thinking about circling back to Tampa and Lowe.
I thought it made a good pair in the off-season.

In the 12 games he has been back he has a .753 OPS and in 62 games this year he is at a 97 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR
He is not super cheap after this year 5.3M prorated, He jumps to 8.75: Team options 10.5, and 11.5 for ages He is 28 so 29,30, 31.
That back is concerning to say the least. But, realistically he is a guy that could find himself in the MVP race if fully healthy. IN only 2 of his years has he been a healthy player 2020 56/60, 2021 149/162, he was top 10 in MVP both years. (140 and 152 OPS+)
His value on MLB trade calc is 13M

The Rays top 3 prospects are SS, and 2X 2B/3B prospects.

Tampa has
3B Isaac Paredes 137 OPS+ 24 years old
SS Wander Franco 118 OPS+ 4.3 WAR so far

TB Ray's catcher suck and they have no high ranked catchers .
SO the return could be either or both
Ford C M's #1 21M
Or
Murphy 141 OPS + catchers are more valuable then the listed 1.4 M on trade calc. With Murphy I would think the M's are sending maybe 1 or 2 prospects in the top 30 but not premium ones.

With Ford the Rays are sending 1 their top 10 sweetener.

This would be a super risky trade. The values of Lowe could have a huge spam of ranges. It is just something to think about.

MLBTV overvalues Lowe because they have a boner for cheap control.

You could trade a decent bullpen arm and like TT for him.

13M is not that high. And, His floor is decent. He has had a 101 last year and a 99 OPS+ on this year. That is basically a league average bat at 2B. And he does have power.
14 games back .779 OPS and a 99 OPS+ on the year. He has a 10% walk rate and a .200 ISO I love that profile. In 63 games he has 21 XBH, 32RBI,29 runs. Even at his injured rates he is contributing an 80-RBI & run pace.

Wong is trash

Cabbie has been hovering around a 100 OPS+ for a while now. IN 63 games he has less than 1/2 the XBH just 10, and less than 1/3rd the homer power 10 to 3, and the RBI and runs 21 &23 and that is somethin like a upper 50s runs and mid 50s RBI/162.

But, if we get him healthy (Lowe) again and he is just 28 his upside is a 40 HR 150 OPS+ 2B. I think he makes the M's significantly better even if we just get the current 100-ish OPS+ version and I think the herniated disk stuff is not a career ender.

[Pharmabro]

Let's talk the Amazing Metz:

Their owner dominated the offseason handing out 87M for 2 years of Verlander.

They are 45-51
Short timers

Tommy Pham OF .272 .356 .475 .831 129 OPS+ line in 74 games this signed a 1year 6M dollar contract. He had an 87 OPS+ last year.

Canha, OF, has a 104 OPS+ and has a 2M buyout or a 11.5 M option for 2024

Closer David Robertson 200 ERA+ walk year

SP
Max Scherzer is owed 43.3M for 2024 and has a 103 ERA+

Verlander has a 43&1/3 for 2024 with a vesting option for 35 M in 2025. He had a injury slowed start but has pitched well lately and is up to a 119 ERA+

Jose Quintana sign a 2/26M dollar deal and just pitched his 1st game on the 20th and went 5 giving up two and good for a 123 ERA+.

There is something I think could be an interesting approach maybe to deal as both sellers and buyers .

What would adding Tom Murphy do to the Rays offense who has had their catchers hitting at a 76, and 81 OPS+ this season. Murphy has good speed for a catcher and has a 138 OPS+ on the season and a 113 OPS+ as a Mariner.
AND
Their back-up catcher is on the IL right now.
Murphy has played well as the front line catcher here and turning their one weak spot to a strength is the reason why I could see us going after Lowe with a Murphy plus some M's top 10 to 30 prospects.

Another approach could be to trade a Woo, Gilbert, or Miller for one or two of the Card's assets.

I mean we could trade a young controlled starter away for a hitter or two and then turn around and add Verlander or Scherzer.


The same has been speculated that maybe the "Nails" closer job that has been done by Paul Sewald the last 3 years 138 ERA+ and teams in the race values on hot arms could make for Sewald move when his value is high. Paul is valued on trade calc as a 11M dollar asset right now. Could we trade Paul for Lowe? The values on trade calc. look decent and then trade for Robertson to take over the closer position here?

The Rays reasoning would be to eliminate the chance of paying in the 10's of millions for a player that is blocking their top 3 prospects and they get to add another guy that performs when it counts.

Just some thoughts.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Today's game is a very important one for Woo.

[Pharmabro]

The Cards 44-55 last place NL Central
Bats
1B Paul G 128 OPS+ He has really fallen off from a 155 a month or so ago owed 26 M for 2024 and trade calc has him at 13M

3B Nolan A -11M trade calc . 32 years old 130 OPS+ owed 109M over the next 4 -15M paid by the Rocks.

2B/3B Nolan G won't be a FA until 2029 119 OPS+ in 23 and 112 career (trade calc 38M)

Jordan Walker is their top 5 prospect who has a 114 OPS+ at age 21 but -0.9 WAR because he is out of position in the OF. ( He's is really a 3B)

SP
Montgomery, Jordan is in his walk year having a career 138 ERA+ year (trade calc 8.1M)

Flaherty has pitched better lately and he is also in his walk year calc 4.1M and has a 99ERA+ ( He does have a top 5 CY year in his past)

They have a number of attractive parts and they have a glaring need for starting pitching and BP help.

[Pharmabro]

The Pirates are 10.5 back in the wildcard a month &1/2 ago they were 5 over .500 and now they are 13 under.

Andrew McCuchen has a .267 .381 .416 .797 118 OPS+ and is in his walk year. Trade calc value -0.2M

Bryan Reynolds has a 105 OPS+ and one of those stupid long term deals. If he is good he is way under compensated. If he is bad the Pirates have a hamstrung budget.

And right now it looks like he is their 5th best outfielder

Andrew M. might come fairly cheap he is one of their franchise players. but a couple months of his time might cost you a couple of non top 10 prospects.

[Pharmabro]

Nats.

Jeimer Candelario (.254 .333 .474 .807 124 OPS+) He plays 1st/3rd and a switch hitter but only a 101 OPS+ for his career, and he had an 80-something OPS+ in a pitcher friendly park in Detroit. How will the Safe-Co. lock him up

Lifetime
vs. Seattle .264 .299 .347 .646

But he is pretty good in T-Mobile
.296 .316 .407 .723 ANd that is in 57 P.A.

I think you would have Candyman splitting time between 1st/3B. And you have France playing some 2B

I just looked it up and France is -15 runs saved at 2B per full year (135 games) on his career. Would it be so bad to have him there short term?

[Seattle or Bust]

I am thinking about circling back to Tampa and Lowe.
I thought it made a good pair in the off-season.

In the 12 games he has been back he has a .753 OPS and in 62 games this year he is at a 97 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR
He is not super cheap after this year 5.3M prorated, He jumps to 8.75: Team options 10.5, and 11.5 for ages He is 28 so 29,30, 31.
That back is concerning to say the least. But, realistically he is a guy that could find himself in the MVP race if fully healthy. IN only 2 of his years has he been a healthy player 2020 56/60, 2021 149/162, he was top 10 in MVP both years. (140 and 152 OPS+)
His value on MLB trade calc is 13M

The Rays top 3 prospects are SS, and 2X 2B/3B prospects.

Tampa has
3B Isaac Paredes 137 OPS+ 24 years old
SS Wander Franco 118 OPS+ 4.3 WAR so far

TB Ray's catcher suck and they have no high ranked catchers .
SO the return could be either or both
Ford C M's #1 21M
Or
Murphy 141 OPS + catchers are more valuable then the listed 1.4 M on trade calc. With Murphy I would think the M's are sending maybe 1 or 2 prospects in the top 30 but not premium ones.

With Ford the Rays are sending 1 their top 10 sweetener.

This would be a super risky trade. The values of Lowe could have a huge spam of ranges. It is just something to think about.

I like your posts but they often take some deciphering. I wish you would consider how readable you are before clicking on the submit button.

In this case I'm wondering who is "Ford C #1 21M"? Is that Harry Ford? Is the "C" supposed to mean that the player is a Catcher and the "#1" that he was a first round draft pick? What is the "21M"? Is it really so hard to just write the player's name?

Anyway, if you're suggesting giving up anything of value for Brandon Lowe, I think that's a mistake. Lowe should be highly gettable for the simple reason that he hasn't been very productive for 2 seasons now and he's currently sporting a .207 BA, and the Rays are on the hook for his moderate salary next year, which to them is probably an issue. I suspect this is more of an offseason deal but I guess it could happen at the deadline. Maybe you give up Robert Perez Jr. for him, or something like that. Maybe Juan Pinto. Even if you're down on Harry Ford right now, you don't give him up for a player that might not be playing ball a year from now. That's just stupid.

As for whether Lowe is a good move to make, I would say maybe. But I think there are probably better opportunities out there, especially if you're willing to give up Harry Ford, which I would rather they not do but they aren't consulting me on these matters.

He read this and doubled down lol