Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[D-train]

Hernandez's first year in Seattle was a very up-and-down affair that ended with good-not-great numbers of a 106 OPS+ and 26 homers, more akin to his 2019 than his very strong 2020-22 run. The Mariners have identified making more contact (they had the second-most strikeouts in baseball) as a priority, and Hernandez whiffed 211 times. This one could go either way, though the Mariners may also be looking to focus all their dollars on an Ohtani chase. It’s tricky, because Seattle may not want to extend the offer, but Hernandez might not take it anyway. Ultimately, given his relatively average season, we think they’ll find other ways to make contact and add power.

Prediction: Does not receive an offer.

A little over three hours to go. This would complete shock me given how much they love their draft picks. I can't believe they would think he would accept it.

I can.

$21 million for 1 year coming off a shit year? $21 million for a chance to prove himself and set up a big contract in '23?

He's like the 5th best OF in my eyes. If he gets a multi-year contract, it's going to be like $15 million AAV. So why turn down the extra $6 million now if you think you'll get the same offer or better next off season?

Mitch was 32 yo played 57 games and put up a .736 OPS and got $43M for 3 season. The FA market was flush with Bats.

Teo is 31 yo played 160 games and put up a .741 OPS OPS. He isn't going to settle for a 1 year deal without testing FA with a Major dearth of bats in this FA market.

[Seattle or Bust]

A little over three hours to go. This would complete shock me given how much they love their draft picks. I can't believe they would think he would accept it.

I can.

$21 million for 1 year coming off a shit year? $21 million for a chance to prove himself and set up a big contract in '23?

He's like the 5th best OF in my eyes. If he gets a multi-year contract, it's going to be like $15 million AAV. So why turn down the extra $6 million now if you think you'll get the same offer or better next off season?

Mitch was 32 yo played 57 games and put up a .736 OPS and got $43M for 3 season. The FA market was flush with Bats.

Teo is 31 yo played 160 games and put up a .741 OPS OPS. He isn't going to settle for a 1 year deal without testing FA with a Major dearth of bats in this FA market.

We'll see.

I can see him getting like 3 years $50 million which could look really stupid if he has a good '24.

[D-train]

It's a question of multi year contract vs single year. The security of a multi year contract is significant

That's why Cody Bellinger accepted a 1-year prove it deal w. the Cubs instead of opting for a cheap multi-year deal and is now going to get like 6 years $150 million on the low end?

Bellinger was coming off two seasons with a .542 and a .654 OPS. A lot of people thought he was done. Teams will look and Teo's .830 Road OPS and say sign me up. I bet the Red Sox sign him For like 3 years and $57M with a 4th year option.

[Southpaw773]

Lots of manager hiring/firing activity today. Ms seem to not be making any changes though right

[Donn Beach]

It's a question of multi year contract vs single year. The security of a multi year contract is significant

That's why Cody Bellinger accepted a 1-year prove it deal w. the Cubs instead of opting for a cheap multi-year deal and is now going to get like 6 years $150 million on the low end?

Bellinger was coming off two seasons with a .542 and a .654 OPS. A lot of people thought he was done. Teams will look and Teo's .830 Road OPS and say sign me up. I bet the Red Sox sign him For like 3 years and $57M with a 4th year option.

His slash was basically his typical numbers. Not sure he really has much to prove

[Coeurd’Alene J]

My guess is Stanton is far to cheap to risk the QO on Teo

[D-train]

My guess is Stanton is far to cheap to risk the QO on Teo

Can't believe it hasn't come out yet. What is the point of waiting until the deadline.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

My guess is Stanton is far to cheap to risk the QO on Teo

Can't believe it hasn't come out yet. What is the point of waiting until the deadline.

Stanton is figuring out how to squeeze more parking space money to cover the QO

[Seattle or Bust]

It's a question of multi year contract vs single year. The security of a multi year contract is significant

That's why Cody Bellinger accepted a 1-year prove it deal w. the Cubs instead of opting for a cheap multi-year deal and is now going to get like 6 years $150 million on the low end?

Bellinger was coming off two seasons with a .542 and a .654 OPS. A lot of people thought he was done. Teams will look and Teo's .830 Road OPS and say sign me up. I bet the Red Sox sign him For like 3 years and $57M with a 4th year option.

Bellinger also has a way higher ceiling than Teo and was considerably younger. Bellinger's ceiling is a .930ish OPS-type hitter. He's also been hampered by injuries.

Aside from the 60-game Covid year and an .870 OPS '21, Teo has mostly been a .770-.800 OPS hitter. He also did that hitting in juggernaut lineups with tons of protection and in one of the easier ballparks to hit in baseball.

I'm not convinced that he's any better than the .740 OPS he showed in Seattle.

[Donn Beach]

My guess is Stanton is far to cheap to risk the QO on Teo

Can't believe it hasn't come out yet. What is the point of waiting until the deadline.

Stanton is figuring out how to squeeze more parking space money to cover the QO

The money is there, don't think it's being cheap. It be their off season addition.