Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[D-train]

I would do it even if they replace him with Marco because I, like you, am not entertained by low scoring slogs. I LOVE offense. What pisses me off is they can easily afford to trade Marco saving money (prob have to pay half his salary) and sign a Snell or Yamamoto and significantly increase their win total by improving both in terms of the offense AND the rotation. Maybe they will but I doubt it.

[Seattle or Bust]

I would do it even if they replace him with Marco because I, like you, am not entertained by low scoring slogs. I LOVE offense. What pisses me off is they can easily afford to trade Marco saving money (prob have to pay half his salary) and sign a Snell or Yamamoto and significantly increase their win total by improving both in terms of the offense AND the rotation. Maybe they will but I doubt it.

Ya idk. If they trade Woo or Miller and don't go out and sign a good starter I won't be surprised but I also won't be angry if that nets the M's some really nice bats.

Where I wish WAR was better is if it put diminishing returns on small sample sizes of really good or bad play. I want consistent players.

I think there was a stretch where Dylan Moore put up 1.3 fWAR over like 4 games. People will look at his .7 fWAR over 67 games and say, "oh... not bad... he was on pace for around 2 fWAR over 162! Nice!" When he was frankly terrible other than a 4-game stretch during the season.

Conversely, Marco had 6 starts where he went at least 5 and gave up 2 runs or fewer. In 8 of his 10 starts he went at least 5 and gave up 3 runs or fewer. Unfortunately, he had 2x clunkers where he gave up 8 runs over 1.2 innings and 5 runs over 3 innings.

So he was a pretty damn good pitcher for 8 of his 10 starts but because he had 2x starts that tanked his WAR he's a horrible pitcher?

A starter could go 9 games of 1 earned run ball and then give up 25 in his 10th start and WAR would make him look terrible. Whereas another pitcher could give up 4 runs every start over 10 games and look about the same as the other guy. That doesn't make sense to me.

Yet who was more valuable for their team? Clearly the guy who gave up 9 earned runs over 9 starts.

[harmony]

I would do it even if they replace him with Marco because I, like you, am not entertained by low scoring slogs. I LOVE offense. What pisses me off is they can easily afford to trade Marco saving money (prob have to pay half his salary) and sign a Snell or Yamamoto and significantly increase their win total by improving both in terms of the offense AND the rotation. Maybe they will but I doubt it.

Ya idk. If they trade Woo or Miller and don't go out and sign a good starter I won't be surprised but I also won't be angry if that nets the M's some really nice bats.

Where I wish WAR was better is if it put diminishing returns on small sample sizes of really good or bad play. I want consistent players.

I think there was a stretch where Dylan Moore put up 1.3 fWAR over like 4 games. People will look at his .7 fWAR over 67 games and say, "oh... not bad... he was on pace for around 2 fWAR over 162! Nice!" When he was frankly terrible other than a 4-game stretch during the season.

Conversely, Marco had 6 starts where he went at least 5 and gave up 2 runs or fewer. In 8 of his 10 starts he went at least 5 and gave up 3 runs or fewer. Unfortunately, he had 2x clunkers where he gave up 8 runs over 1.2 innings and 5 runs over 3 innings.

So he was a pretty damn good pitcher for 8 of his 10 starts but because he had 2x starts that tanked his WAR he's a horrible pitcher?

A starter could go 9 games of 1 earned run ball and then give up 25 in his 10th start and WAR would make him look terrible. Whereas another pitcher could give up 4 runs every start over 10 games and look about the same as the other guy. That doesn't make sense to me.

Yet who was more valuable for their team? Clearly the guy who gave up 9 earned runs over 9 starts.

Good point on Marco Gonzales, who in 2022 ranked in a tie for 18th among all MLB starters with 18 quality starts:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/player/_ ... s/dir/desc

Gonzales is not spectacular but certainly has value if the lefthander recovers from forearm surgery.

[D-train]

Maybe post surgery he will have added a few mph on his fastball and be up to 87mph

[seattlefan-daBronx]

Maybe post surgery he will have added a few mph on his fastball and be up to 87mph

Marco Gonzalez: a MLB pitcher: a man barely alive
Gentlemen we can rebuild him
We have the technology
We have the capability to make the worlds first bionic man
Marco Gonzalez will be that man
Better than he was before
Better, Stronger, Faster

[Pharmabro]

]

I think you guys are starved for hitting, Kepler seems okay but certainly nothing special. From a twins blog July last season. It's actually defending him, guess he isn't very popular there

What I expect from Kepler is exactly what he was producing last year prior to the toe injury- .244/.344/.390 with good defense in right field. He’s shown the ability to be a little better than that, but as is, that is a three WAR player, and the sort of production any team should be happy to pencil in from their seventh or eighth best hitter. Look at any team (besides the Braves) and tell me how good their seven-hole hitters

I'm not paying a lot for one season of a seventh hole hitter

Nor should you. Max Kepler is not the 121 OPS+ hitter he was in 2023. I know recency bias but he is a 104 OPS+ career guy in a corner position that does not help you at all you need to have 120,130,140 in at least a majority of the 4 corners and DH. With a 104 OPS+ player you can get last year, sure. But you are more likely to get 2021 &2022 92 and 98 OPS+.

I am zero percent interested in Kepler.

[Donn Beach]

How about Gilbert, would we trade Gilbert for Kepler and Polanco?

[Seattle or Bust]

How about Gilbert, would we trade Gilbert for Kepler and Polanco?

No.

[Donn Beach]

It was suggested here, don't want to imply it was an original idea!

If the Twins wanted Logan Gilbert from Seattle, simply trading one of Kepler or Polanco might not be enough. Packaging them together could do the trick, though. The same could be said for assets the Yankees and Braves have as well -- both teams looking to upgrade but not at free agency market price.

https://puckettspond.com/posts/twins-ru ... hf06jzcp90

[D-train]

It was suggested here, don't want to imply it was an original idea!

If the Twins wanted Logan Gilbert from Seattle, simply trading one of Kepler or Polanco might not be enough. Packaging them together could do the trick, though. The same could be said for assets the Yankees and Braves have as well -- both teams looking to upgrade but not at free agency market price.

https://puckettspond.com/posts/twins-ru ... hf06jzcp90

simply trading one of Kepler or Polanco might not be enough

Good to know every fan base has an idiot segment of their fanbase......