Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[GL_Storm]

FWIW, Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicts the Mariners will sign the following 2 free agents:

16. Jorge Soler, OF/DH
Age: 31
2023 (Marlins): 1.8 WAR
Team prediction: Mariners
Soler hit 36 homers this year and finished with a .341 on-base percentage and a 128 OPS+. He made his first All-Star team and, as expected, opted out of his contract after the season. The Mariners lost 59 home runs this offseason after trading Eugenio Suárez to Arizona and Kelenic to Atlanta and losing Hernández to free agency. Soler can make up more than half of those home runs by himself. Although the Mariners’ main offseason goal is to add contact hitters, a need Soler doesn’t address, they can’t ignore their depleted power.

Best fits: Mariners, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Padres, Guardians

Contract prediction: Two years, $32 million



11. Justin Turner, 1B/3B/DH
Age: 39
2023 (Red Sox): 2.1 WAR
Team prediction: Mariners
Turner had a nice year, slashing .276/.345/.455 with 31 doubles, 23 home runs and 96 RBIs. Beyond the production, you’re also getting a leader. The Mariners and Diamondbacks both need a DH type bat; if Arizona signs Martinez, I could see Turner landing in Seattle.

Best fits: Mariners, Diamondbacks

Contract prediction: One year, $14 million

I could live with one of these, but not both. I would prefer Soler just because he's younger, but if you can get Turner on a one-year deal for a lower AAV, then maybe that would be the smart move.

Turner has had an extremely solid major league career and you have to respect that, but father time comes for all of us at some point.

[Pharmabro]

The Redsox Rebuff:

If the Sox are real in their interest in a Miller or Woo acquisition who would we be getting back:

27 year old (Next year) CF who hit .295 .346 .482 .828 with a 121 OPS+ last year after hitting to a 53 and a 78 OPS+ in 91 games the previous 2 years in MLB. He can give you some value on the bases 24/26 SB in 102 games last year. He is 6' 205# so you might hope over time that his 34 doubles 2 triples and 8 HR trend towards more HR to help his ISO. We'd have control though 2028.

24-year-old 1B Triston Casas .263 .367 .490 .856 129 OPS+ He is also controlled though 2028.

That is about the length of young good players. On the higher priced and less likely to be the returns include Devers and Yoshida.

Neither of those guys are ideal. But Casas being a 1B appears to have a good profile as being a middle of the order bat. If France comes back strong you could see a DH/1B job share. Casas was a -1 DWAR guys last year so Perry Hill magic time. He does have the 10% walk rate and .200+ ISO that you like. (50.9 M trade calc. Seems high)

The CF can back up Julio when he needs a day off. If he can be a CF (playing corner OF)120 OPS+ offense bust adds some range and some SB threat that would look pretty too.
(34 M tade calc. seems high)


I also heard KC was sniffing around the young pitching but they do not have anything to offer. They are not giving us Witt Jr. and nobody else on their roster looks really good.

[Seattle or Bust]

The Redsox Rebuff:

If the Sox are real in their interest in a Miller or Woo acquisition who would we be getting back:

27 year old (Next year) CF who hit .295 .346 .482 .828 with a 121 OPS+ last year after hitting to a 53 and a 78 OPS+ in 91 games the previous 2 years in MLB. He can give you some value on the bases 24/26 SB in 102 games last year. He is 6' 205# so you might hop over time that his 34 doubles 2 triples and 8 HR trend towards more HR to help his ISO. We'd have control though 2028.

24-year-old 1B Triston Casas .263 .367 .490 .856 129 OPS+ He is also controlled though 2028.

That is about the length of young good players. On the higher priced and less likely to be the returns include Devers and Yoshida.

Neither of those guys are ideal. But Casas being a 1B appears to have a good profile as being a middle of the order bat. If France comes back strong you could see a DH/1B job share. Casas was a -1 DWAR guys last year so Perry Hill magic time. He does have the 10% walk rate and .200+ ISO that you like. (50.9 M trade calc. Seems high)

The CF can back up Julio when he needs a day off. If he can be a CF (playing corner OF)120 OPS+ offense bust adds some range and some SB threat that would look pretty too.
(34 M tade calc. seems high)


I also heard KC was sniffing around the young pitching but they do not have anything to offer. They are not giving us Witt Jr. and nobody else on their roster looks really good.

Duran is quite overrated. .910 OPS at Boston, .748 on the road. Just 8 homers in 102 games with 90 K's to just 24 walks. He's also 27. His value is purely b/c he can play CF... he's a bad corner OF bat. I wouldn't go near him.

I can't seem them trading Casas who has the makings of a high OBP, power hitting 1B at just 23 years old. Certainly not for Woo or Miller. Not sure why you say he wouldn't be ideal... he's exactly what you'd want from Boston but they're not trading him.

[Donn Beach]

Sign two DHs...cool

Exactly.

Dipoto has gotten DHs before, the question is playing them at DH;

[GL_Storm]

The Redsox Rebuff:

If the Sox are real in their interest in a Miller or Woo acquisition who would we be getting back:

27 year old (Next year) CF who hit .295 .346 .482 .828 with a 121 OPS+ last year after hitting to a 53 and a 78 OPS+ in 91 games the previous 2 years in MLB. He can give you some value on the bases 24/26 SB in 102 games last year. He is 6' 205# so you might hope over time that his 34 doubles 2 triples and 8 HR trend towards more HR to help his ISO. We'd have control though 2028.

24-year-old 1B Triston Casas .263 .367 .490 .856 129 OPS+ He is also controlled though 2028.

That is about the length of young good players. On the higher priced and less likely to be the returns include Devers and Yoshida.

Neither of those guys are ideal. But Casas being a 1B appears to have a good profile as being a middle of the order bat. If France comes back strong you could see a DH/1B job share. Casas was a -1 DWAR guys last year so Perry Hill magic time. He does have the 10% walk rate and .200+ ISO that you like. (50.9 M trade calc. Seems high)

The CF can back up Julio when he needs a day off. If he can be a CF (playing corner OF)120 OPS+ offense bust adds some range and some SB threat that would look pretty too.
(34 M tade calc. seems high)


I also heard KC was sniffing around the young pitching but they do not have anything to offer. They are not giving us Witt Jr. and nobody else on their roster looks really good.

I doubt that deal was on the table. Maybe one of those players plus a package of prospects. Probably Casas would be offered before Duran, who I think has a lot of value for them. Casas is promising but more replaceable. But given that the MLBTR article said the Red Sox were "rebuffed", I don't think the proposal was very serious and likely neither player was included. And I don't really like their prospects. Some of those guys have promise, but nobody really stands out. I'm not even sure about Mayer. I mean, he's doing fine but not exactly dominating. Maybe he'll break out this year though. Roman Anthony is kind of interesting.

But sure, I'd give them one of Miller or Woo for Casas and Duran. I'd do that deal any day of the week. I just don't think there's much chance that was offered or would be.

[D-train]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/ ... ected.html

Speed of light
Speed of Sound
Email
Modern day snail Mail
Pony Express
Pharmabro's Tri Cities Gazette News

[D-train]

FWIW, Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicts the Mariners will sign the following 2 free agents:

16. Jorge Soler, OF/DH
Age: 31
2023 (Marlins): 1.8 WAR
Team prediction: Mariners
Soler hit 36 homers this year and finished with a .341 on-base percentage and a 128 OPS+. He made his first All-Star team and, as expected, opted out of his contract after the season. The Mariners lost 59 home runs this offseason after trading Eugenio Suárez to Arizona and Kelenic to Atlanta and losing Hernández to free agency. Soler can make up more than half of those home runs by himself. Although the Mariners’ main offseason goal is to add contact hitters, a need Soler doesn’t address, they can’t ignore their depleted power.

Best fits: Mariners, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Padres, Guardians

Contract prediction: Two years, $32 million



11. Justin Turner, 1B/3B/DH
Age: 39
2023 (Red Sox): 2.1 WAR
Team prediction: Mariners
Turner had a nice year, slashing .276/.345/.455 with 31 doubles, 23 home runs and 96 RBIs. Beyond the production, you’re also getting a leader. The Mariners and Diamondbacks both need a DH type bat; if Arizona signs Martinez, I could see Turner landing in Seattle.

Best fits: Mariners, Diamondbacks

Contract prediction: One year, $14 million

I could live with one of these, but not both. I would prefer Soler just because he's younger, but if you can get Turner on a one-year deal for a lower AAV, then maybe that would be the smart move.

Turner has had an extremely solid major league career and you have to respect that, but father time comes for all of us at some point.

Past three seasons Soler has a .779 OPS. Turner is at .809. He can be had on a 1 year deal. Soler strikes me as a guy that will completely suck at T Mobile just like he did from 2020-2022 overall. Give me Ginger and you can have Gilligan. lol

[Donn Beach]

After a resurgent season (with some shaky batted ball metrics) in Chicago, Bellinger reportedly requested 10-12 years and $250+ million at the start of the winter. While he did hit free agency at a fairly ideal time, he didn't hit free agency in 1998. Everyone has access to the same available metrics, and everybody knew that would be a premier overpay. As a result, Bellinger's market has failed to develop, despite well-timed Instagram stories of the CN Tower. When the Giants inked a pact with Jung-Hoo Lee on Tuesday night, that appeared to remove one more potential market from the final count.

That's what I was wondering. How about five years

[D-train]

[harmony]

From Friday's column by Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic:

The Mariners
One rival executive interested in starting pitching speculated Thursday that the Mariners’ seeming reluctance to trade one of their young pitchers stems from their own RSN concerns.

The Mariners have spent the early part of the offseason creating payroll flexibility. From that perspective alone, it would make little sense for them to trade a minimum-salary starter such as Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. But finances are not the only reason they are disinclined to make such a deal.

The free-agent prices this offseason reinforce that young, controllable starters are the game’s most treasured commodity. If righty Seth Lugo can command a three-year, $45 million deal at 34, after his first season as a full-time starter, then the return for six years of either Miller or Woo should be sizable, to say the least.

The Mariners’ rotation is their strength. After trading Brandon Williamson and Connor Phillips and Levi Stoudt, all to the Reds in separate deals for Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo, the team is not as deep as it once was in young starters. Put it all together, and a trade of Miller or Woo would appear increasingly doubtful.

Which probably means president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will pull off some wacky blockbuster tomorrow.

https://theathletic.com/5139906/2023/12 ... rosenthal/

Subscription required.