Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[Big_Maple]

Braves get Sale from the Red Sox:

https://www.mlb.com/news/chris-sale-trade-to-braves

Boston must need some young, controllable arms right now with the loss of their ace. Giolito adds some depth, but I don’t think he moves their needle much. The M’s must look good to them right about now.

I’d do Miller for Duran:

[D-train]

[harmony]

Braves get Sale from the Red Sox:

https://www.mlb.com/news/chris-sale-trade-to-braves

Boston must need some young, controllable arms right now with the loss of their ace. Giolito adds some depth, but I don’t think he moves their needle much. The M’s must look good to them right about now.

I’d do Miller for Duran:

FWIW Steamer projects 27-year-old Jarren Duran with a 2024 WAR of 1.4 in 128 games while projecting 25-year-old Bryce Miller with 1.3 WAR in 26 starts.

Duran has five years of team control, including four likely arbitration seasons, while Miller comes with six years of team control, including four likely arbitration seasons.

The Mariners can ill-afford to deplete their pitching depth for a defensively challenged outfielder who posted a negative 0.4 fWAR in 2021 and a negative 0.4 fWAR in 2022.

https://www.fieldingbible.com/drs-leade ... 789&team=3

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarre ... #dashboard

[D-train]

Yeah the site is way overvaluing him. I would only do it for a mid level prospect or two or Hancock. Hard pass given your points AND his .748 Road OPS.

[Big_Maple]

Well, seems official. The M’s are the new A’s without the prospect of a new move to a new stadium and a new city with a fresh commitment to spending and winning.

Cellar dwellers, y’all.

[GL_Storm]

Yeah the site is way overvaluing him. I would only do it for a mid level prospect or two or Hancock. Hard pass given your points AND his .748 Road OPS.

I wouldn't give up Miller, but I would give up more than what you're proposing. Duran has legitimate value. He's a real major league player and he has enough tools and actual MLB performance to command a better package than that. But Miller has frontline starter potential and six years of control. I think if Miller hadn't come up last year he'd be a top ten prospect right now, and that's not a player you give up for the likes of Jarren Duran. But Duran does have real value. I don't really see a package from the Mariners that would work.

[ice99]

The M's have a $2 billion, 17 yr contract with RSNW, which is about $117.6 million per year. According to Forbes they made $86 million in 2022. They may have made more in 2023, since their attendance went up by about 400k. If RSNW broke even in 2022 and was paying the M's $117.6 million, and Divish says they would get the subscriptions down to 75%.

Let's take a lower estimate. Say 2/3, then the revenue would be about $78.4 million. The M's would have lowered their revenue by $39M, so they still would make a profit of $47 million. At any rate, IF they had wanted a rate increase last year, they should rollback and stay the same to Comccast and other providers, eating inflation, and asking Comcast to lower the higher tier. They could make more revenue at the gate if they could put a better product on the field.

They should tear up the agreement with RSNW, since they're the principal owner. Maybe a $900 million contract over 10 years. An average of $90 million, with a 2.5 inflation rate. Five years to the midway point. So the first payment starts at $90 / (1.025) exp 5 = $79.4 million.

[D-train]

It is very clear that they aren't afraid of losing money, they are afraid of not making as much money.

[ice99]

It is very clear that they aren't afraid of losing money, they are afraid of not making as much money.

Yes, that's the sense I get. Even if they are going to break even, they can dump Castillo at the ASB if they are below .500.

[Pharmabro]

Braves get Sale from the Red Sox:

https://www.mlb.com/news/chris-sale-trade-to-braves

Boston must need some young, controllable arms right now with the loss of their ace. Giolito adds some depth, but I don’t think he moves their needle much. The M’s must look good to them right about now.

I’d do Miller for Duran:

That is a pretty smart move from the Braves. Sale was a 140's ERA+ guy in 2021 and 2022 in 9 starts and 2 starts. He had just over 100 innings in 2023 with a 106 ERA+. He has a 27M but Boston is sending 17M so a 1 year 10M contract for Chris Sale is a bargain upside play. And you get an option year to boot.