Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[Pharmabro]

I watched a bit of the Marine Layer podcast and they reported a couple of sources stating the M's had somewhere between 15-25M depending on different sources. I think with 24M we could really improve this team.

Sign
BP stud Josh Hader he gives you a left-handed dominant top 5 Uber closer that would make the BP the best in baseball. His 169 ERA+ career is legit. Of the non-Covid years (6) 5 are absolutely in competition for best BP guy in baseball check these WAR totals provided: 3.2 2.8 2.4,2.1, 1.9. To put those numbers to use no BP player put up more than 1.7 in either 2022 or 2023 and those years we had pretty good BPs.
OR

Sign
LH defending NL CY Blake Snell Our park favors lefties so signing a 127 ERA+ career guy who wants to play for you is a no-brainer. This move, just like the one above I believe elevates our starting 5 to best in the game. Check these Numbers out:
Blake Snell 127 ERA+
Castillo 124
Kirby 120 last year and more WAR than Castillo and he is getting better every year
Gilbert 112 Has been at 3 and 3.1 WAR the last 2 years with 116 and 108 ERA+'s
Winner of Miller Woo they had 93 and 96 ERA+ scores, but they are on the rise. But for arguments sake it is Miller 1.6 WAR pace based on a full season's worth of starts. And just for reference Gilbert's 1st 24 starts were OK but he ended his rookie campaign with a 88 ERA+.
Least liked 1 big move
Sign
*Cody Bellinger Positions: Centerfielder and First Baseman .307 .356 .525 .881 133OPS+ (120 OPS+ career). He has some positional flex but can play center along with Julio, Raley, and Bellinger. and 1B. He is a speed guy 130 games 26 HR and 20 SB in 2023. I looked on baseball reference and the Cubs paid him 12.5M in 2023 and paid a 5M dollar buyout of his 2024 option. HOw high was that option that the big-market Cubs paid 5M to pay him to play for someone else?
What does this do for the offense?
Player position OPS+
1. *JP SS 130
2. Julio CF 136 +
3. *Bellinger 134 OF/1B
4. Garver DH 134
5. *Haniger/Raley OF 126 OPS+ (Raley 2023 and Haniger as a M)
6. **Cal C 117 OPS+
7. France 1B 115 OPS+
8. 3B Urias 110 OPS+ (I believe) Bounce back from a 2 -year run of 110 OPS+ and a 70-grade bat. But if all the guys above are hitting and Urias sucks? This position becomes France and either Raley or Bellinger plays 1B
9. 2B *Rojas 105 OPS+

Bench Seby Z, Moore, Haggerty, Haniger/Raley. That looks pretty solid to me.

[D-train]

Both Bellinger and Snell likely get $30M AAV minimum so I don't get this proposal at all. They said they are going with the current rotation and just looking for a depth piece for the INF.

[Pharmabro]

Both Bellinger and Snell likely get $30M AAV minimum so I don't get this proposal at all. They said they are going with the current rotation and just looking for a depth piece for the INF.

Bellinger is a question. He had a 130s OPS+ which is good but not great output. But what happened to him from 2020 to 2022? I saw somewhere report that he was looking for 250M. But yikes, he is not a Trout, Ohtani, Judge level of a producer. I was thinking he deserves something between the Nimmo 8 for 162M and 7 for 175M that Marcus S. got. And I think Nimmo originally was estimated to be just around 100million. But we will see.

And Snell. He will have the recency bias in his favor, but he has a lot of volatility in his career as well. I expect fair market to be something higher than the 6/162M that Rodon signed.

But, I would say we have had a number of teams not wanting to spend money: Padres, M's, etc, etc. So it may hold down the bidding. And then there is the numbers the Dodgers paid up for Ohtani and Yamamoto. And Giolitto, who has sucked got 40M for 2 years so?

I wish they would not be cheap weasels and get us Bellinger, Hader, and Blake and sit at the big boy table.

And specifically in Snell's case would you rather live in NYC that has a 3.8% tax added on to the 10.9% state income tax on top of the fact that the cost of living in NYC vs Seattle is about 25 %. But just the tax alone. And Snell wants to play here. If NYY offers him 30M X 6 years he is going to get 87M net or 15.5M/year. Seattle offers 25M X 6 = 150M pretax but no Wa. income tax =94.5M net and 15.75M net/year. But how much less would he be willing to take here and trade clauses. And how much does he want to play here would he 24, 23, 22M to play here? 150M, 200M it is all generational wealth. He will be set for life.

[D-train]

Both Bellinger and Snell likely get $30M AAV minimum so I don't get this proposal at all. They said they are going with the current rotation and just looking for a depth piece for the INF.

Bellinger is a question. He had a 130s OPS+ which is good but not great output. But what happened to him from 2020 to 2022? I saw somewhere report that he was looking for 250M. But yikes, he is not a Trout, Ohtani, Judge level of a producer. I was thinking he deserves something between the Nimmo 8 for 162M and 7 for 175M that Marcus S. got. And I think Nimmo originally was estimated to be just around 100million. But we will see.

And Snell. He will have the recency bias in his favor, but he has a lot of volatility in his career as well. I expect fair market to be something higher than the 6/162M that Rodon signed.

But, I would say we have had a number of teams not wanting to spend money: Padres, M's, etc, etc. So it may hold down the bidding. And then there is the numbers the Dodgers paid up for Ohtani and Yamamoto. And Giolitto, who has sucked got 40M for 2 years so?

I wish they would not be cheap weasels and get us Bellinger, Hader, and Blake and sit at the big boy table.

Of course I do as well but Jerry almost always does what he says he is going to do so I am not going to fantasize about something that isn't going to happen. If any of those guys sign the Beer is on me in Peoria!

[desbcoach]

Both Bellinger and Snell likely get $30M AAV minimum so I don't get this proposal at all. They said they are going with the current rotation and just looking for a depth piece for the INF.

Bellinger is a question. He had a 130s OPS+ which is good but not great output. But what happened to him from 2020 to 2022? I saw somewhere report that he was looking for 250M. But yikes, he is not a Trout, Ohtani, Judge level of a producer. I was thinking he deserves something between the Nimmo 8 for 162M and 7 for 175M that Marcus S. got. And I think Nimmo originally was estimated to be just around 100million. But we will see.

And Snell. He will have the recency bias in his favor, but he has a lot of volatility in his career as well. I expect fair market to be something higher than the 6/162M that Rodon signed.

But, I would say we have had a number of teams not wanting to spend money: Padres, M's, etc, etc. So it may hold down the bidding. And then there is the numbers the Dodgers paid up for Ohtani and Yamamoto. And Giolitto, who has sucked got 40M for 2 years so?

I wish they would not be cheap weasels and get us Bellinger, Hader, and Blake and sit at the big boy table.

Of course I do as well but Jerry almost always does what he says he is going to do so I am not going to fantasize about something that isn't going to happen. If any of those guys sign the Beer is on me in Peoria!

I agree with this statement, amazing how many people put out their list and we know yeah not happening

[Lamda]

Bellinger is a question. He had a 130s OPS+ which is good but not great output. But what happened to him from 2020 to 2022? I saw somewhere report that he was looking for 250M. But yikes, he is not a Trout, Ohtani, Judge level of a producer. I was thinking he deserves something between the Nimmo 8 for 162M and 7 for 175M that Marcus S. got. And I think Nimmo originally was estimated to be just around 100million. But we will see.

And Snell. He will have the recency bias in his favor, but he has a lot of volatility in his career as well. I expect fair market to be something higher than the 6/162M that Rodon signed.

But, I would say we have had a number of teams not wanting to spend money: Padres, M's, etc, etc. So it may hold down the bidding. And then there is the numbers the Dodgers paid up for Ohtani and Yamamoto. And Giolitto, who has sucked got 40M for 2 years so?

I wish they would not be cheap weasels and get us Bellinger, Hader, and Blake and sit at the big boy table.

Of course I do as well but Jerry almost always does what he says he is going to do so I am not going to fantasize about something that isn't going to happen. If any of those guys sign the Beer is on me in Peoria!

I agree with this statement, amazing how many people put out their list and we know yeah not happening

A lot of people just can't let go of Snell. He's a fine pitcher but the thing I've never understood with the people in that camp is - our pitching for the most part is fine - if you want to sink 20-30mill into 1 player - put it into a hitter or hitters that will have some major impact on our lineup. Runs is what we need, not more pitching which we already arguably have enough of while our lineup screams of inadequacies. Is the idea get more pitching so we can try to win games this year 2-1 or 1-0? lol.

[bpj]

Of course I do as well but Jerry almost always does what he says he is going to do so I am not going to fantasize about something that isn't going to happen. If any of those guys sign the Beer is on me in Peoria!

I agree with this statement, amazing how many people put out their list and we know yeah not happening

A lot of people just can't let go of Snell. He's a fine pitcher but the thing I've never understood with the people in that camp is - our pitching for the most part is fine - if you want to sink 20-30mill into 1 player - put it into a hitter or hitters that will have some major impact on our lineup. Runs is what we need, not more pitching which we already arguably have enough of while our lineup screams of inadequacies. Is the idea get more pitching so we can try to win games this year 2-1 or 1-0? lol.

I think the assumption is that with Snell added to the top of the rotation, they could trade another one of the arms for the impact bat, since they have a hard time signing bats in free agency.

Despite how underwhelming the moves have been, I don't see where they may think they have holes to fill still. I'm willing to bet they're pretty much done.

Once they got Garver, Raley and Haniger I think they considered their holes filled. They may upgrade from Haggerty as the 26th man at this point, but in my opinion they're not going to add an upgrade at 3B or 2B.

Our lineup pretty much is what it is at this point. They raised the floor, and the upside is there, it's just lacking name brand value. Nobody we can look at as a sure thing besides probably Julio who was still a Top 15 WAR player in a down year.

[bpj]

The one remaining type of move that would make sense to me at this point would be flipping DeSclafini for a guy like Brandon Lowe. Include $6M to the Rays and it would only raise our payroll around $3M (and lower theirs 3).

If Wander Franco is coming back, they probably realize they could save some money by playing Caballero at 2B. They seem pretty weak at SP.

Or, could make sense to flip him to any number of other teams that need SP. Makes a lot less sense to let him Marco it in the bullpen imo.

[D-train]

This guy has over 2k followers and is a Mariner account and doesn't know how arbitration works. Jesus.

[D-train]

Of course I do as well but Jerry almost always does what he says he is going to do so I am not going to fantasize about something that isn't going to happen. If any of those guys sign the Beer is on me in Peoria!

I agree with this statement, amazing how many people put out their list and we know yeah not happening

A lot of people just can't let go of Snell. He's a fine pitcher but the thing I've never understood with the people in that camp is - our pitching for the most part is fine - if you want to sink 20-30mill into 1 player - put it into a hitter or hitters that will have some major impact on our lineup. Runs is what we need, not more pitching which we already arguably have enough of while our lineup screams of inadequacies. Is the idea get more pitching so we can try to win games this year 2-1 or 1-0? lol.

Well to be fair the thought was to sign Snell and that would allow you to trade Woo or Miller for a bat but they made it clear that is not happening so I don't get the point of continuing to bring it up. It is like continuing to suggest we sign Ohtani.