The Mariners reportedly are aiming for a 2026 payroll of about $166 million. In response to a payroll question at an early offseason media conference, PBO Jerry Dipoto was quoted “I would say similar to where we ended the year, as a starting point.”
Spotrac currently anticipates the Mariners with about $139 million in 2026 commitments, including projected arbitration raises:
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/payroll
Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the projected commitments just shy of that total:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1520401900
Using the higher commitment figure, the Mariners could have about $27 million to spend in the offseason.
The three-prong plan:
1. Sign Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto for four years, $64 million
2. Engage frequent trade partner Tampa Bay in a blockbuster deal. Using surplus values from Baseball Trade Values and contracted or projected 2026 salaries:
C Luke Stevenson 8.2
SP Jurrangelo Cijntje 15.8
1B Luis Suisbel 2.6
26.6 surplus value
for
1B Yandy Diaz 4.7, $12 million
RP Edwin Uceta 4.7, $1.7 million
SP Ryan Pepiot 15, $3.8 million
2B Brandon Lowe -0.1, $11.5 million
24.3 surplus value, 2026 salaries $29 million
3. Engage Arizona in another salary dump
SP Luis Castillo -7.4, $24.15 million (plus $1 million assignment bonus)
OF/SS Tai Peete 6.5
0.9 negative value but in a tight market for established starting pitchers
for
LRP Carlos Rey
The Diamondbacks get a needed established starter and a prospect, whom if you squint your eyes hard enough, has some resemblance to Ketel Marte, who floundered in the Seattle system before blossoming in the desert. Rey is a 23-year-old left-hander who could not find the strike zone this year at the D-backs' High A affiliate in Oregon.
The plan trades away the Mariners’ Nos. 8. 10, 12 and 20 prospects at MLB Pipeline.
The Tampa Bay trade brings in $29 million in 2026 salaries, and the Okamoto contract adds another $16 million AAV for a total of $45 million. The Luis Castillo trade sheds about $23 million in salary for a net increase of about $22 million.
If the Mariners have $27 million to spend, those outlays of $22 million would leave about $5 million in the annual bargain hunt for depth pieces.
The only long-term commitment in the plan is the four-year contract for Okamoto. The signing would come with significant risks as FanGraphs projects Okamoto with a wRC+ of 75, a 25.7 percent strikeout rate and only 10 home runs in 102 games next year (despite Okamoto’s significantly more impressive numbers in Japan).
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kazum ... #dashboard
The modest one-year commitments for Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are advantageous because many of the M’s top infield prospects could be ready by 2027. The Mariners don’t have a top first-base prospect but Okamoto could slide over from third base to first base in 2027 to make room. If Cole Young, Ben Williamson and/or Colt Emerson appear ready by midseason, Diaz and/or Lowe could be flipped at the 2026 trade deadline for pitching depth, perhaps another lefty in the bullpen.
The plan fails to address the Mariners’ defensive woes as the M’s ranked 26th of 30 teams this season in defensive value:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... e=&month=0
Of particular concern is Brandon Lowe’s drop-off from a near average defensive second baseman to one of the worst in 2025 with minus 14 total runs saved:
https://archive.fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
Ryan Pepiot and Erwin Uceta come with three and four years of team control in arbitration.
The pitching staff with FanGraphs projected games, innings, ERA and WAR:
SP Logan Gilbert (29 G, 166 IP, 3.44 ERA, 3.2 WAR)
SP Bryan Woo (32 G, 198 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.3 WAR)
SP George Kirby (32 G, 178 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.2 WAR)
SP Ryan Pepiot (31 G, 175 IP, 3.86 ERA, 2.1 WAR)
SP Bryce Miller (26 G, 143 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.4 WAR)
SP/RP Logan Evans ((32 G, 62 IP, 4.26 ERA, 0.2 WAR)
RP/SP Emerson Hancock (53 G, 68 IP, 4.11 ERA, 0.1 WAR)
CL Andres Munoz (64 G, 64 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.2 WAR)
RP Matt Brash (63 G, 63 IP, 3.05 ERA, 0.9 WAR)
RP Gabe Speier (62 G, 6 IP, 3.21 ERA, 0.6 WAR)
RP Erwin Uceta (70 G, 70 IP, 3.87 ERA, 0.7 WAR)
RP Eduard Bazardo (70 G, 70 IP, 3.70 ERA. 0.4 WAR)
RP Carlos Vargas (56 G, 56 IP, 3.83 ERA, 0.0 WAR)
The lineup with FanGraphs projected games, wRC+, OBP, HR and WAR):
1B Yandy Diaz (149 G, 132 wRC+, .367 OBP, 22 HR, 2.9 WAR)
C Cal Raleigh (159 G, 129 wRC+, .330 OBP, 39 HR, 5.7 WAR)
CF Julio Rodriguez (159 G, 133 wRC+, .334 OBP, 33 HR, 6.2 WAR)
2B Brandon Lowe (126 G, 108 wRC+, .309. 26 HR, 2.3 WAR)
LF Randy Arozarena (157 G, 113 wRC+, .329 OBP, 23 HR, 2.0 WAR)
DH Dominic Canzone (120 G, 109 wRC+, .308 OBP, 21 HR, 1.2 WAR)
3B Kazuma Okamoto (102 G, 75 wRC+. .275 OBP, 10 HR, -0.2 WAR)
RF Luke Raley (126 G, 103 wRC+, .304 OBP, 20 HR, 1.1 WAR)
SS J.P. Crawford (147 G, 105 wRC+, .336 OBP, 12 HR, 2.6 WAR)
Even with Okamoto’s marked regression in transition, FanGraphs projects seven of nine Mariner starters with at least 20 home runs each.
The youthful bench will have Harry Ford, Cole Young, Ben Williamson and Victor Robles unless Young and Williamson would be better-served by more seasoning in the minors.
As always, let me take cover before you fire off your responses.
