Harmonious offseason plan

[harmony]

Why sign Okamoto if FanGraphs projects that he's going to be trash?

I don't really see why the Rays would trade Pepiot... certainly not at that "value." He's cheap, got a couple years of control, and good.

Diaz and Lowe make a lot of sense... they have for a number of seasons now... but I don't see the Rays trading all of the veterans in one swoop.

Appreciate the effort.

Valid point about Ryan Pepiot.

Would 30-year-old Tampa Bay right-hander Drew Rasmussen be a more appropriate target?

While Pepiot has a projected 2026 salary of $3.75 million in the first of three arbitration seasons, Rasmussen is under contract for $5.75 million in 2026 with an $8 million club option, or $500,000 buyout, for 2027. Is the Puyallup native and Oregon State product getting too expensive for the Rays?

Baseball Trade Values assigns Rasmussen $11.2 million in surplus value and Pepiot $15 million in surplus value. FanGraphs projects Rasmussen with 31 GS, 171 IP, 3.93 ERA and 2.8 WAR in 2026 and Pepiot with 31 GS, 175 IP, 4.27 ERA and 2.1 WAR.

Thoughts?

[D-train]

Would you consider Murakami instead?

I like the plan. I think the Rays would be willing to deal - but if we’re talking about a risky and untested move to deal with third base, I like the power that Murakami brings.

The past 8 seasons, Okamoto has average 35 HRs and this past season had an unreal K rate of only 11%. Murakami had a 27% K rate this past season.

In his career Murakami has hit and average of 39 HRs every 150 games. And word on the street he can't play 3B for shit so he will be a 1B/DH.

Also Murikami hit only .105 on fastballs over 93mph. So many red flags.

Besides no way Jerry goes there.

[harmony]

Would you consider Murakami instead?

I like the plan. I think the Rays would be willing to deal - but if we’re talking about a risky and untested move to deal with third base, I like the power that Murakami brings.

The 2026 ZiPS projections for Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto:

MM 515 PA, 26 HR, .363 OBP, .454 SLG, 126 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
KO 494 PA, 20 HR, .340 OBP, .451 SLG, 117 wRC+, 2.4 WAR

Curiously, FanGraphs projects Marakami and Okamoto with identical 2026 strikeout rates of 25.7 percent (and identical 7.5 percent walk rates) despite wide differences in their strikeout rates in Japan.

The 26-year-old Marakami is projected to land a six- or seven-year contract with an AAV of $22 mllion. The 30-year-old Okamoto is projected to land a three- to four-year contract with an AAV of $16 million to $18 million.

Both players carry serious risks but the length and AAV make the projected Murakami contract more frightening. The $4 million to $6 million difference in AAVs could have long-range implications.

Thank you for the feedback.

[D-train]

Why sign Okamoto if FanGraphs projects that he's going to be trash?

I don't really see why the Rays would trade Pepiot... certainly not at that "value." He's cheap, got a couple years of control, and good.

Diaz and Lowe make a lot of sense... they have for a number of seasons now... but I don't see the Rays trading all of the veterans in one swoop.

Appreciate the effort.

Valid point about Ryan Pepiot.

Would 30-year-old Tampa Bay right-hander Drew Rasmussen be a more appropriate target?

While Pepiot has a projected 2026 salary of $3.75 million in the first of three arbitration seasons, Rasmussen is under contract for $5.75 million in 2026 with an $8 million club option, or $500,000 buyout, for 2027. Is the Puyallup native and Oregon State product getting too expensive for the Rays?

Baseball Trade Values assigns Rasmussen $11.2 million in surplus value and Pepiot $15 million in surplus value. FanGraphs projects Rasmussen with 31 GS, 171 IP, 3.93 ERA and 2.8 WAR in 2026 and Pepiot with 31 GS, 175 IP, 4.27 ERA and 2.1 WAR.

Thoughts?

Seems that will work.

[D-train]

Would you consider Murakami instead?

I like the plan. I think the Rays would be willing to deal - but if we’re talking about a risky and untested move to deal with third base, I like the power that Murakami brings.

The 2026 ZiPS projections for Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto:

MM 515 PA, 26 HR, .363 OBP, .454 SLG, 126 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
KO 494 PA, 20 HR, .340 OBP, .451 SLG, 117 wRC+, 2.4 WAR

Curiously, FanGraphs projects Marakami and Okamoto with identical 2026 strikeout rates of 25.7 percent (and identical 7.5 percent walk rates) despite wide differences in their strikeout rates in Japan.

The 26-year-old Marakami is projected to land a six- or seven-year contract with an AAV of $22 mllion. The 30-year-old Okamoto is projected to land a three- to four-year contract with an AAV of $16 million to $18 million.

Both players carry serious risks but the length and AAV make the projected Murakami contract more frightening. The $4 million to $6 million difference in AAVs could have long-range implications.

Thank you for the feedback.

Curiously? I think you misspelled Idiotically. How in the love of God can you project that one guy with an 11% K rate and another with a 27% K rate will both have a 27% K rate the following season after moving to MLB???

[D-train]

What risk does Okamoto carry other than he will be a rookie? He might have the highest floor of any Japanese position player EVER.

[harmony]

Would you consider Murakami instead?

I like the plan. I think the Rays would be willing to deal - but if we’re talking about a risky and untested move to deal with third base, I like the power that Murakami brings.

The 2026 ZiPS projections for Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto:

MM 515 PA, 26 HR, .363 OBP, .454 SLG, 126 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
KO 494 PA, 20 HR, .340 OBP, .451 SLG, 117 wRC+, 2.4 WAR

Curiously, FanGraphs projects Marakami and Okamoto with identical 2026 strikeout rates of 25.7 percent (and identical 7.5 percent walk rates) despite wide differences in their strikeout rates in Japan.

The 26-year-old Marakami is projected to land a six- or seven-year contract with an AAV of $22 mllion. The 30-year-old Okamoto is projected to land a three- to four-year contract with an AAV of $16 million to $18 million.

Both players carry serious risks but the length and AAV make the projected Murakami contract more frightening. The $4 million to $6 million difference in AAVs could have long-range implications.

Thank you for the feedback.

Curiously? I think you misspelled Idiotically. How in the love of God can you project that one guy with an 11% K rate and another with a 27% K rate will both have a 27% K rate the following season after moving to MLB???

Almost seems like a transcription error.

Whom would Ichiro recommend?

[D-train]

I assume that is a rhetorical question. ha

[Donn Beach]

What risk does Okamoto carry other than he will be a rookie? He might have the highest floor of any Japanese position player EVER.

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph

[Seattle or Bust]

Would you consider Murakami instead?

I like the plan. I think the Rays would be willing to deal - but if we’re talking about a risky and untested move to deal with third base, I like the power that Murakami brings.

The past 8 seasons, Okamoto has average 35 HRs and this past season had an unreal K rate of only 11%. Murakami had a 27% K rate this past season.

In his career Murakami has hit and average of 39 HRs every 150 games. And word on the street he can't play 3B for shit so he will be a 1B/DH.

Also Murikami hit only .105 on fastballs over 93mph. So many red flags.

Besides no way Jerry goes there.

I think the appeal w. Murakami is that he's just 25. There's still some development in him and he's already shown insane raw power.

Ohtani was a little younger when he made the move, but he also had really high K rates in the Japanese league. Murakami is the better hitter at the time of posting and in his 2x best seasons his K rate was actually really good. He's also avg'd about 100 walks the last 4 seasons.

I'd rather the guy with the higher ceiling than the guy with a middling floor which I think Okamoto is. To me Okamoto is gonna be like Dae Ho.