Teams that have started 4-9 or worse.

[D-train]

History doesn't favor the Mariners, whose playoff chances are already in decline
One thing we can do is look at every team that ever started 4-9 or worse and pick out how many A) recovered to make the playoffs, B) made it to the World Series or C) won the World Series.

With the help of Baseball Reference, here are the numbers:

Total teams: 395
Made playoffs: 16
Made World Series: 7
Won World Series: 4

https://sodomojo.com/skidding-mariners- ... y-to-panic

[D-train]

Two weeks in and we are about 1-100 chance. Good God this franchise..

[DanielVogelbach]

Not sure why they included "or worse" other than to spin it more negative.

If we want to treat all teams as equal, which is what this stat is doing, then sure the chances are low. But, if you consider the Mariners as a good team that's underachieving, played good teams, or caught some bad breaks, then it's a completely different analysis.

All teams equal means you start with a 1/30 chance.

Interpreting the loaded stat correctly you would see that it's insignificant. Doesn't matter. Can still make world series or win it. Not a death blow. Just 13 games.

Expanding... some of those teams were 0-13, 1-12, 2-11 and still included. Some of those teams continued to play like shit and did not make the playoffs, while other teams turned it around and some won the WS. In other words, all that stat tells you is that forecasting based on record after 13 games will not get you very far... you need the rest of the info.

[D-train]

Not sure why they included "or worse" other than to spin it more negative.

If we want to treat all teams as equal, which is what this stat is doing, then sure the chances are low. But, if you consider the Mariners as a good team that's underachieving, played good teams, or caught some bad breaks, then it's a completely different analysis.

All teams equal means you start with a 1/30 chance.

Interpreting the loaded stat correctly you would see that it's insignificant. Doesn't matter. Can still make world series or win it. Not a death blow. Just 13 games.

Expanding... some of those teams were 0-13, 1-12, 2-11 and still included. Some of those teams continued to play like shit and did not make the playoffs, while other teams turned it around and some won the WS. In other words, all that stat tells you is that forecasting based on record after 13 games will not get you very far... you need the rest of the info.

Sure but if you only included 4-9 teams the denominator would be much smaller and the number would be smaller too though not buy the same %.

[DanielVogelbach]

If you only included 4-9 teams it would logically show a higher percentage that had successful seasons. There's no reason to include "or worse" in the breakdown. But, my point was two-fold, not only does the stat include "or worse" but it ignores all the relevant data. Were the games close? What was the strength of schedule?

The stat explains itself, if you're a good team, then 4-9 doesn't matter at all. If you're a bad team, then you're not going anywhere anyway. We've all been watching this game long enough to know that it doesn't matter. It's not a straight 1/100 chance... that all depends on the actual meaningful info...the chances aren't from the record, the chances are from the strength of the team.

I would say the Mariners chances of making the post season are probably north of 50%. They've lost a lot of close games. Had 3 homers robbed in a single game. But, who knows, maybe they do suck... What I'm saying is you really can't tell one bit by a 4-9 record alone... you need the rest of the info.

[DavidGee24]

Another factor is does this include 1968 and before, when only one team from each league made it to the postseason, and from 1969-1993 when only two teams from each league made it to the postseason? Judging from the number (365), I'm thinking that this probably goes back to the 1960s, likely the first expansion year of 1961.

Given how many teams make the playoffs now, 4-9 is far from a death sentence and thankfully only the offensive piston isn't firing.

[GL_Storm]

History doesn't favor the Mariners, whose playoff chances are already in decline
One thing we can do is look at every team that ever started 4-9 or worse and pick out how many A) recovered to make the playoffs, B) made it to the World Series or C) won the World Series.

With the help of Baseball Reference, here are the numbers:

Total teams: 395
Made playoffs: 16
Made World Series: 7
Won World Series: 4

https://sodomojo.com/skidding-mariners- ... y-to-panic

I don't think this is relevant to the current situation. It's a very loose correlation.

[Millikin]

This is bonkers.

Any team that's somewhere around .500 at the All-star break is in a position to make the playoffs or even win the division.

I'm pretty sure a 4-9 team can end up around 500 by the All-star break,or by the end of the month.

From June 3rd to the 11th last season the Mariners went 1-8 vs the Orioles and Diamondbacks. Does anyone even remember that? I didn't.

[bpj]

Good, I didn't like the betting odds preseason.

I'd probably lay some $ on them at this point, they just haven't gotten going yet imo.

They didn't do enough to improve the team, but they're still better than the bad teams, and there's a lot of those. Dipoto will probably trade away some more minor leaguers at the deadline again, maybe it'll be enough to get in the playoffs, then who knows.

I found this old lineup while looking through my pictures earlier, things have been much worse!

[Donn Beach]

I'm going to keep banging my drum. You look at the start, they have a .238 BABIP, they've played in some tough ballparks, and they have been up against some of the best rotations in baseball. I'm not excusing the horrendous start but it shouldn't have been unexpected. That was a lot of headwinds. But they shouldn't be 4-9, they should be around. 500 and a game or so out of first place if it wasn't for the generally sloppy baseball they've been playing. They dug an unnecessarily deep hole for themselves.