It takes a little bit of luck...

DanielVogelbach
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It takes a little bit of luck...

Post by DanielVogelbach » Sat Aug 22, 2026 7:35 pm

It always takes a little bit of luck. Check out Jorge Polanco 2024 and 2026 vs last year during the Mariners magical 2025. Also, the New York Mets GM is an idiot, right? He should've known Jorge would suck again and that last year was an anomaly. Just like Jerry should've known Donavan would be injured all season.

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My point here is that all GMs make calculated risks, and they know if those gambles don't pan out, then the team's chances for success are going to suffer. They know this going in. It's obvious to them just like it's obvious to you. Jerry isn't "stopping one or two moves short" because the thinks the team will dominate as currently constructed. He knows it's gonna take a little bit of magic for it to result in a deep post season run.

Speaking to everyone passionately waving the "Jerry Sucks Balls" flag, If you actually analyzed other GM's performance rather than putting the microscope on Jerry and nitpicking, then your takes would likely be more objective and realistic. By your measures, the league is just littered with idiotic and incompetent front offices.

Calling out the Met's GM seems reasonable, though. 58-71 with second highest payroll in the league is objectively poor. The Mariners have the 8th best record in baseball since 2022 with multiple post season series wins and the #1 prospect in baseball taking the mound tonight. Maybe Jerry could've done better, but he certainly could've done a lot worse. Replacing Jerry might improve the on-field product a little bit, maybe, but it's not as obvious as disgruntled fans try to make it out to be.

Toronto deserves an honorable mention here as well. 5th highest payroll and the team is below .500. I can't argue against with hot seat comments for Mets or Blue Jays' GMs.

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I think your takes are mostly just homerism typical fan stuff mixed in with the obvious fact that Jerry looks and sounds kind of like a douchebag. I mean I will agree he doesn't come across like some badass dude like John Schneider. I also would not have any issues with the Mariners replacing Jerry. I would be fine with it. But, I still think at the end of the day, it takes more than a good GM for a mid market team to hoist a trophy. It takes a little bit of luck.

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bpj
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Re: It takes a little bit of luck...

Post by bpj » Sun Aug 23, 2026 5:11 am

Dipoto has always gone wrong by spreading his $30-40M in available payroll across six losers instead of getting one or two players that are actually good.

The biggest problem with Dipoto- which I've complained about since at least that 2022 screenshot I posted- is the dollars he does get to spend on his trade/free agent acquisitions is always wasted.

It hasnt changed in 11 years. It's probably why ownership won't give him more. He wastes it all anyways. "But at least we're not in last place!" doesn't earn him a forever-pass.

Even his extensions suck by the time they play out. They're not going to win with Dipoto in charge of the team. He's incapable. His entire goal is average. 54%. Loser.

I don't need to compare other GM's dollar losses because if they haven't made the playoffs more than Dipoto in the last ten years- they suck too!

Fortunately for them, most have made it more than Dipoto.

Dipoto's spending:
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mostonmike
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Re: It takes a little bit of luck...

Post by mostonmike » Sun Aug 23, 2026 6:02 am

This is worthy of another thread, DV. :roll:
Replacing Jerry might improve the on-field product a little bit, maybe, but it's not as obvious as disgruntled fans try to make it out to be.
Do that then ?

If we had a "little bit" better product on the field we would have made the World Series last year, wouldn't we?

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D-train
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Re: It takes a little bit of luck...

Post by D-train » Sun Aug 23, 2026 1:27 pm

Sorry I will never get the Jerry isn't so bad because other GMs suck too argument
dt

DanielVogelbach
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Re: It takes a little bit of luck...

Post by DanielVogelbach » Sun Aug 23, 2026 2:41 pm

mostonmike wrote:
Sun Aug 23, 2026 6:02 am
This is worthy of another thread, DV. :roll:
Replacing Jerry might improve the on-field product a little bit, maybe, but it's not as obvious as disgruntled fans try to make it out to be.
Do that then ?

If we had a "little bit" better product on the field we would have made the World Series last year, wouldn't we?
You're posting in the thread, so apparently it is. :lol:

Look at Polanco's results last year. Look at the Geno and Naylor deadline deals. I said "maybe", which means maybe not, and last year was one of those years where everything was working. Hard to believe you plug in a different GM after the 2024 season and that automatically gets you to the WS n 2025 where Jerry's moves fell one game short.

DanielVogelbach
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Re: It takes a little bit of luck...

Post by DanielVogelbach » Sun Aug 23, 2026 2:44 pm

D-train wrote:
Sun Aug 23, 2026 1:27 pm
Sorry I will never get the Jerry isn't so bad because other GMs suck too argument
That's not the argument.
Last edited by DanielVogelbach on Sun Aug 23, 2026 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DanielVogelbach
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Re: It takes a little bit of luck...

Post by DanielVogelbach » Sun Aug 23, 2026 3:09 pm

bpj wrote:
Sun Aug 23, 2026 5:11 am
Dipoto has always gone wrong by spreading his $30-40M in available payroll across six losers instead of getting one or two players that are actually good.

The biggest problem with Dipoto- which I've complained about since at least that 2022 screenshot I posted- is the dollars he does get to spend on his trade/free agent acquisitions is always wasted.

It hasnt changed in 11 years. It's probably why ownership won't give him more. He wastes it all anyways. "But at least we're not in last place!" doesn't earn him a forever-pass.

Even his extensions suck by the time they play out. They're not going to win with Dipoto in charge of the team. He's incapable. His entire goal is average. 54%. Loser.

I don't need to compare other GM's dollar losses because if they haven't made the playoffs more than Dipoto in the last ten years- they suck too!

Fortunately for them, most have made it more than Dipoto.

Dipoto's spending:
Basically, what you do, is you oversimplify and make assumptions.

Every team does the same thing. You either take a chance on the scrap heap players, or you don't spend the money. They're all free agents, so you're not gonna get the same WAR per dollar as you will with a 25 year old player under club control. That's how the game works. You hope you get lucky like Jerry did with Polanco per my original post.

Additionally, it takes all 25 guys to win. If you get one player and punt on the other holes in the lineup, that's not necessarily going to help you at all. Plus, you must realize the "one player" is going to demand a 5 year deal, whereas the others are signing for one year deals and providing flexibility for future seasons. You're analysis is not objective, it's typical hometown sports fan railroading the local GM, because you're upset that the mid-market level payroll team isn't bringing home World Series trophies every year. Recognize that the Cubs went 107 years without a trophy. The Red Sox went 85 years. This isn't all about GM competency. It's about the mathematics of 30 teams and 29 losers.

There aren't an unlimited amount of free agents. And, every other player is under contract so the only way to obtain them is via trade. GMs may come in different levels of competency, but in general it's not easy to just fleece other GMs for lop-sided trades. Your magical, mythical, "one or two moves away" is just empty, hometown fan rhetoric.

You don't "have to" analyze the GMs on other teams. But, it would certainly help you analyze Jerry more realistically and objectively if you did.

Ultimately, where I think you're missing the mark is on your direct correlation between wins and losses and GM performance. It should be more based on Wins and Losses per payroll dollar spent. For the past SIX YEARS Jerry has the Ms at #7 in wins for $1.6M per win. You can look at the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers as examples where better performance was achieved. But, if you put take off your homer goggles for a minute and look through the lens of reality, then you will see that the Mariners have been one of the best run franchises during that timeframe.

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bpj
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Re: It takes a little bit of luck...

Post by bpj » Sun Aug 23, 2026 3:27 pm

Unfortunately Jerry's proven what he's terrible at is picking which olayers to spend his available payroll on each year.

He shuffles the foundation around great.

The minor leagues are fine/good.

He brings in this $800k player to replace that $800k player.

But where he fails is completing the team.

Spin your defense however you want, but 11 years is long enough to make a decision as we sit 7 games under .500, pinning our hopes on the rookie lefty instead of any of the players Dipoto added with his payroll and whiffed on.

DanielVogelbach
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Re: It takes a little bit of luck...

Post by DanielVogelbach » Sun Aug 23, 2026 4:14 pm

bpj wrote:
Sun Aug 23, 2026 3:27 pm

Spin your defense however you want.
Clearly, when the Mariners are #8 in wins and #19 in payroll, the obvious factor isn't replacing the GM. It's spending more money. Duh. Not a whole lot of spin required.

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Last edited by DanielVogelbach on Sun Aug 23, 2026 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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bpj
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Re: It takes a little bit of luck...

Post by bpj » Sun Aug 23, 2026 9:54 pm

DanielVogelbach wrote:
Sun Aug 23, 2026 4:14 pm
bpj wrote:
Sun Aug 23, 2026 3:27 pm

Spin your defense however you want.
Clearly, when the Mariners are #8 in wins and #19 in payroll, the obvious factor isn't replacing the GM. It's spending more money. Duh. Not a whole lot of spin required.


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Where do they rank in $/Win? 14th?

That's because Dipoto gets great results from young, cheap players, but gets terrible results from the three or four spots he spends on each offseason.

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