SOB's Real Off-Season Plan

[Seattle or Bust]

Trades:

**Revision - 3-team trade**

M's trade RHP George Kirby, OF/2B Michael Arroyo to the Nationals and OF Jake Brown to the Marlins, Nationals trade SS Seaver King to the Marlins, Marlins trade SS Otto Lopez and RHP Anthony Bender to the M's.

This one is a doozy... but it could make sense. Seaver King is in AAA and a top-50 prospect at SS in the sport after slashing .303/.382/.516/.898 between AA and AAA. He is blocked by CJ Abrams at SS so could be a trade candidate to add pitching that the Nationals very much need. King replaces Lopez in Miami. The Nationals get that pitching from the Mariners with 2x years of Kirby and they also add Arroyo who can slot in at 2B where they currently have a limp noodle in Nasim Nunez playing. The Mariners add Otto Lopez at SS while also offloading their 2026 2nd round pick Jake Brown to the Marlins who are light in OF prospects. RHP Anthony Bender who has had some injury issues but has also been stellar is also sent back to the M's.

M's trade OF Luke Raley, RHP Logan Evans to the Orioles for 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand

This would be an interesting under-the-radar trade... Encarnacion-Strand only appeared in 58 games for the Orioles this year... but he did so mostly at 3B. He put up 1.7 fWAR in that small sample slashing .277/.325/.445/.770 with 11 HR's. The kicker is he slashed for a 1.009 OPS vs lefties, making him the perfect platoon partner for both Emerson and Naylor as he plays both 3B and 1B. He was also quite good defensively in '26. Why would the Orioles move him? Well, they started 2x other players at 3B in Coby Mayo and Blaze Alexander. They've invested in Mayo as a former top-10 prospect in the sport and Blaze Alexander gives them more defensive versatility. The Orioles outfield was a complete mess in '26 so Raley helps there. Evans gives them a young, controlled arm they can slot into what continues to be a mediocre to bad rotation.

M's trade SS Felnin Celesten, C Luke Stevenson, RHP Eduard Bazardo to the Dodgers for OF Mike Sirota, RHP Aiden Foeller

Prospects for prospect trade you say? Yup. The Dodgers are absolutely loaded with OF prospects... 4 in their top 6... 3 of their top 3. They lack middle infield prospects and a catching prospect in their farm. So... the M's trade them exactly that for OF prospect Mike Sirota. The 23-year-old RH bat slashed .307/.461/.526/.987 with 17 homers across 108 games in the minors in '26. In '25 he slashed 1.068 over 59 games. He could ride a hot Spring Training to an early debut in '27... potentially answering the M's issue with not having a true, future RH outfielder with can play solid defense in the mix. Foeller is a top-20 prospect in the Dodgers org in AA and can touch 100. The Dodgers also need right-handed bullpen help.

Free Agents:

M's sign RHP David Bednar to a 3-year $45M deal

Bednar has been stellar... pitching to a sub 2.61 ERA every year of his career aside from 2024. He's 31 so he likely won't get more than like a Adrian Morejon... but the M's make a rare bullpen investment.

M's sign OF Tyrone Taylor to a 1-year $6M deal

Taylor is a bit of a journeyman who had a really nice '26 slashing .279/.325/.502/.827 with the Mets and Cubs. He absolutely mashed lefties to the tune of a .921 OPS. He was also a solid defender with the versatility to play every OF position. He could platoon with Laz and also play all over the OF when guys need a day off.

M's sign Util IF Isiah Kiner-Felefa to a 1-year $5M deal

Felefa is a defensive genius who put up 1.1 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR in just 66 games despite putting up only an 80 wRC+ with the bat. He's the perfect insurance for a team whose defensive replacements were HORRID in '26 around the infield.

Lineup:

1. Brendan Donovan DH
2. Otto Lopez SS
3. Dom Canzone RF
4. Julio Rodriguez CF
5. Cal Raleigh C
6. Josh Naylor 1B
7. Tyrone Taylor/Laz Montez (Sirota?) LF
8. Colt Emerson/ Christian Encarnacion-Strand 3B
9. Cole Young 2B

Bench: Jonny Pereda C, Isiah Kiner-Felefa SS

Staff:

1. Logan Gilbert
2. Bryan Woo
3. Emerson Hancock
4. Bryce Miller
5. Kade Anderson

Bullpen:

CL: Andres Munoz
HL: David Bednar, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier, Anthony Bender
ML: Jose Ferrer, Seranthony Dominguez

You might look at this and think there's not much money on this roster... you'd be right considering the M's offloaded Castillo, Randy, and Kirby's money...

But the final deal?

M's sign RHP Logan Gilbert to a 7-year $200M extension... buying out the last year of his rookie deal and paying him $28.5M a year until age 36.

[GL_Storm]

I don't think Kirby fits the bill for the Marlins and what they're looking to do, which is to get younger, controllable players. So I think if Otto is your target, maybe you look to get a third team involved

[D-train]

Great plan! I am now convinced that the Marlins would move Otto but agree with Gabe that two years of Arb 2 and 3 Kirby isn't what they are going to be looking for.

The other monkey wrench is Jerry deciding the his $100M former top 5 prospect is now no longer a SS but a platoon bat at 3B which puts his ceiling at about 1.5 WAR given our best hope for his bat is Cole Youngs high 600s OPS in 2027. That contract is going to look more and more fucking idiotic over time. Not Evan White bad but close...

[D-train]

I would also prefer Dubon over IKF but not a big deal there.

[Seattle or Bust]

Great plan! I am now convinced that the Marlins would move Otto but agree with Gabe that two years of Arb 2 and 3 Kirby isn't what they are going to be looking for.

The other monkey wrench is Jerry deciding the his $100M former to 5 prospect is now no longer a SS but a platoon bat at 3B which puts his ceiling at about 1.5 WAR given our best hope for his bat is Cole Youngs high 600s OPS in 2027. That contract is going to look more and more fucking idiotic over time. Not Evan White bad but close...

I look at Strand or signings like him as insurance while Colt develops.

If he sticks at 3B and turns into a decent bat, great. Trading for a SS like Lopez also doesn't prohibit Emerson from playing SS down the road. It's just clear right now that they can't rely on Colt at the position if they have aspirations of winning a title.

As for Kirby, I don't think trading for Kirby is a stand alone move for them. They could trade off Alcantara for a decent piece back knowing that they now have Kirby under control for 2 years as a better investment of their $$ given Alcantara is owed $21M and that's essentially what Kirby is owed over the next 2 years.

[DavidGee24]

1. No way do the Marlins make that trade. A 6.0-WAR shortstop who's been improving every year and who they control for what, three more years for a 1.4 WAR pitcher who's been regressing every year, a maybe prospect who doesn't really have a position, and a guy who sucked in college and hasn't yet pitched in the minors? Would YOU make that trade if you were them?

2. No way do the Orioles make that trade. Strand's bat emerged in 2026 while Raley's disappeared and Evans is a total unknown at this point. Again, would YOU make that trade if you were them?

3. Interesting trade there, although one wonders why Sirota is still in the minors at 23 despite his 1.000 OPS. We probably should not trade both Celestnin and Stevenson, but Sirota could really be something and is definitely someone we should look at.

4. Bednar would be a good pickup, I think we all agree on that.

5. Pass on Taylor. Don't be fooled by his Robles-esque 30 games with the Cubs, he seems like every other RH hitter on the back side of his career we've acquired recently.

6. IKF would be a good utility guy, you just don't want to give him WFB playing time and he might want that.

7. Estevez seems like a good guy to take a flyer on, although if the Royals don't pick up his option there's a reason for that. He'd have to come pretty cheap.

[Seattle or Bust]

1. No way do the Marlins make that trade. A 6.0-WAR shortstop who's been improving every year and who they control for what, three more years for a 1.4 WAR pitcher who's been regressing every year, a maybe prospect who doesn't really have a position, and a guy who sucked in college and hasn't yet pitched in the minors? Would YOU make that trade if you were them?

2. No way do the Orioles make that trade. Strand's bat emerged in 2026 while Raley's disappeared and Evans is a total unknown at this point. Again, would YOU make that trade if you were them?

3. Interesting trade there, although one wonders why Sirota is still in the minors at 23 despite his 1.000 OPS. We probably should not trade both Celestnin and Stevenson, but Sirota could really be something and is definitely someone we should look at.

4. Bednar would be a good pickup, I think we all agree on that.

5. Pass on Taylor. Don't be fooled by his Robles-esque 30 games with the Cubs, he seems like every other RH hitter on the back side of his career we've acquired recently.

6. IKF would be a good utility guy, you just don't want to give him WFB playing time and he might want that.

7. Estevez seems like a good guy to take a flyer on, although if the Royals don't pick up his option there's a reason for that. He'd have to come pretty cheap.

1. 2 years of control for a quality starting pitcher + a top 50 prospect in the sport and a flier on a pitcher the M's took knowing their history in scouting these types... idk. You could be right... but Lopez is also controlled for just 3 years. I agree with others that it might take a different trade package, fine.

2. The Orioles have Jordan Westburg, Blaze Alexander, Coby Mayo, Gunner Henderson, Jackson Holliday, and Jeremiah Jackson all at 3B, SS, and 2B. They don't have enough roster spots to play all these guys. While Strand's bat flashed, he hasn't build up much trade value given it flashed over just 58 games games. The Orioles are in desperate need of OF help... as a whole they put up -1.5 bWAR as a unit and that includes Taylor Ward's 2.7 fWAR who is gone. I could see Raley being an enticing rebound candidate for them... + they need more lefties in their lineup. Even if Evans is an "unknown" he's still a former top-100 prospect with 6 years of control. Tommy John ain't what it used to be. And again, Strand has some value, but not a lot.

[Seattle or Bust]

Here is my revision. I like Storm's suggestion at a 3-team trade... I decided to look for top SS prospects who are MLB ready and blocked and thought the Nationals could be the perfect team for a 3-team trade.

M's trade RHP George Kirby, OF/2B Michael Arroyo to the Nationals and OF Jake Brown to the Marlins, Nationals trade SS Seaver King to the Marlins, Marlins trade SS Otto Lopez and RHP Anthony Bender to the M's.

This one is a doozy... but it could make sense. Seaver King is in AAA and a top-50 prospect at SS in the sport after slashing .303/.382/.516/.898 between AA and AAA. He is blocked by CJ Abrams at SS so could be a trade candidate to add pitching that the Nationals very much need. King replaces Lopez in Miami. The Nationals get that pitching from the Mariners with 2x years of Kirby and they also add Arroyo who can slot in at 2B where they currently have a limp noodle in Nasim Nunez playing. The Mariners add Otto Lopez at SS while also offloading their 2026 2nd round pick Jake Brown to the Marlins who are light in OF prospects. RHP Anthony Bender who has had some injury issues but has also been stellar is also sent back to the M's.

[D-train]

Great plan! I am now convinced that the Marlins would move Otto but agree with Gabe that two years of Arb 2 and 3 Kirby isn't what they are going to be looking for.

The other monkey wrench is Jerry deciding the his $100M former to 5 prospect is now no longer a SS but a platoon bat at 3B which puts his ceiling at about 1.5 WAR given our best hope for his bat is Cole Youngs high 600s OPS in 2027. That contract is going to look more and more fucking idiotic over time. Not Evan White bad but close...

I look at Strand or signings like him as insurance while Colt develops.

If he sticks at 3B and turns into a decent bat, great. Trading for a SS like Lopez also doesn't prohibit Emerson from playing SS down the road. It's just clear right now that they can't rely on Colt at the position if they have aspirations of winning a title.

As for Kirby, I don't think trading for Kirby is a stand alone move for them. They could trade off Alcantara for a decent piece back knowing that they now have Kirby under control for 2 years as a better investment of their $$ given Alcantara is owed $21M and that's essentially what Kirby is owed over the next 2 years.

I agree regarding Colt but don't think Jerry will. He will be blocked from SS for three seasons if Otto is healthy and performing.

[D-train]

1. No way do the Marlins make that trade. A 6.0-WAR shortstop who's been improving every year and who they control for what, three more years for a 1.4 WAR pitcher who's been regressing every year, a maybe prospect who doesn't really have a position, and a guy who sucked in college and hasn't yet pitched in the minors? Would YOU make that trade if you were them?

2. No way do the Orioles make that trade. Strand's bat emerged in 2026 while Raley's disappeared and Evans is a total unknown at this point. Again, would YOU make that trade if you were them?

3. Interesting trade there, although one wonders why Sirota is still in the minors at 23 despite his 1.000 OPS. We probably should not trade both Celestnin and Stevenson, but Sirota could really be something and is definitely someone we should look at.

4. Bednar would be a good pickup, I think we all agree on that.

5. Pass on Taylor. Don't be fooled by his Robles-esque 30 games with the Cubs, he seems like every other RH hitter on the back side of his career we've acquired recently.

6. IKF would be a good utility guy, you just don't want to give him WFB playing time and he might want that.

7. Estevez seems like a good guy to take a flyer on, although if the Royals don't pick up his option there's a reason for that. He'd have to come pretty cheap.

Good points on 6 of those but Taylor had a .827 OPS in 97 games....Also has a solid floor thanks to his D.