SOB's Real Off-Season Plan

[Seattle or Bust]

2. The Orioles have Jordan Westburg, Blaze Alexander, Coby Mayo, Gunner Henderson, Jackson Holliday, and Jeremiah Jackson all at 3B, SS, and 2B. They don't have enough roster spots to play all these guys. While Strand's bat flashed, he hasn't build up much trade value given it flashed over just 58 games games. The Orioles are in desperate need of OF help... as a whole they put up -1.5 bWAR as a unit and that includes Taylor Ward's 2.7 fWAR who is gone. I could see Raley being an enticing rebound candidate for them... + they need more lefties in their lineup. Even if Evans is an "unknown" he's still a former top-100 prospect with 6 years of control. Tommy John ain't what it used to be. And again, Strand has some value, but not a lot.

If you're the Orioles though, you want someone that you KNOW is going to perform. Raley has put up a -0.3 WAR the last two seasons. Banking on a guy to rebound after one bad year is one thing, but two? That's a bad idea for them. As for Evans, you'd probably want to see what he can do first when he comes back from surgery, as he was so-so at the MLB level and has been so-so in the minors.

I think they'd do their homework and understand he was trying to play through an injury that severely hurt his performance.

He had a .789 OPS in March/April. He had a 1.122 OPS in May.

That cratered to .398 in June where he missed time... and it continued in July to a .485 OPS because he went in for surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his forearm.

Maybe you're right... but I don't think any team looking at Raley is looking at the dip as anything more than the result of an injury.

[Seattle or Bust]

Never say never. Storm did a good job listing the reasons why he might be available above.

Neto flys in the face of what the M's have said they want to commit to this offseason. He's a poor defender with limited range. Dipoto mentioned specifically needing to get more range at SS to convert on defense for a pitching staff that throws strikes and wants to play to their defense. He mentioned being dead last in double play conversion on balls in play that should have resulted in a double play very much stood out as a problem. Not to mention that he was in the bottom 15% of pretty much every swing-and-miss stat in '26. He struck out 215 times this year... last thing this offense needs is to add more K's.

If the M's want to add a defensive shortstop with some upside... they could possibly look to the Cardinals and Masyn Winn. He hasn't hit and the metrics don't really point in a positive direction for a leap with the bat... but he's a top-2 defensive SS in baseball.

A quick Google search doesn't fully support these claims. He has mixed, but still consistent high marks for his defense. For offense, his chase rate is low but strikeouts are high. While his overall swing-and-miss numbers have increased as his power has developed, his raw plate discipline metrics are pretty good.

A quick Savant look would tell you all you need to know.

He sold out for power in '26 and the swing and miss came with it. His chase % is not low... like I said, bottom 15% in the sport.

He's bottom 6% in range in baseball. He made 18 errors which was top 10 in baseball... couple that with bad range and you've got issues.

Like I said, he's the opposite what the FO has said they want defensively.

[DavidGee24]

Here is my revision. I like Storm's suggestion at a 3-team trade... I decided to look for top SS prospects who are MLB ready and blocked and thought the Nationals could be the perfect team for a 3-team trade.

M's trade RHP George Kirby, OF/2B Michael Arroyo to the Nationals and OF Jake Brown to the Marlins, Nationals trade SS Seaver King to the Marlins, Marlins trade SS Otto Lopez and RHP Anthony Bender to the M's.

This one is a doozy... but it could make sense. Seaver King is in AAA and a top-50 prospect at SS in the sport after slashing .303/.382/.516/.898 between AA and AAA. He is blocked by CJ Abrams at SS so could be a trade candidate to add pitching that the Nationals very much need. King replaces Lopez in Miami. The Nationals get that pitching from the Mariners with 2x years of Kirby and they also add Arroyo who can slot in at 2B where they currently have a limp noodle in Nasim Nunez playing. The Mariners add Otto Lopez at SS while also offloading their 2026 2nd round pick Jake Brown to the Marlins who are light in OF prospects. RHP Anthony Bender who has had some injury issues but has also been stellar is also sent back to the M's.

One problem: apparently King also plays third and second, and both quite well. He's going to a National in 2027 no matter what. Now, they are talking about Abrams possibly being expendable so THAT could be worth exploring. Here's the thing though, any package headlined by Kirby isn't going to get it done. He's got a 2.1 WAR over the past two seasons in 53 starts. An average starting pitcher would have an WAR of about 3.0, so Kirby is below-average. You'd have to headline Gilbert or Woo (or hope maybe you can lucky with Hancock) to get that one done.

[Big_Maple]

OR - how about this - the Mariners finally get serious and make a Murakami kind of deal for 3B slugger Teruaki Sato. Why can't we give him a 2 year, $38MM deal? Would any of us think it would be money poorly spent if we got Murakami last year and he performed like he did for the White Sox? Even 7 ticks above the Mendoza, he still his 35 bombs and put up 2.3 WAR.

Sato is a triple crown winner in Japan, and last year he his for a 1.014 OPS

https://sodomojo.com/teruaki-sato-rumor ... se-slugger

We keep our starters and our prospects and get a solid bat to hold down 3B. Outbid the Dodgers or the Yankees or the Mets - just get serious for a change!!

[DavidGee24]

Good points on 6 of those but Taylor had a .827 OPS in 97 games....Also has a solid floor thanks to his D.

The last three guys we signed just like him:
Refsnyder .838
Solano .760
Garver .870

This is the philosophy that's been biting us in the butt the last few years. We need a better, younger player of that mold. But Taylor sounds like he could be a decent fourth outfielder, certainly better than Robles.

[Seattle or Bust]

Here is my revision. I like Storm's suggestion at a 3-team trade... I decided to look for top SS prospects who are MLB ready and blocked and thought the Nationals could be the perfect team for a 3-team trade.

M's trade RHP George Kirby, OF/2B Michael Arroyo to the Nationals and OF Jake Brown to the Marlins, Nationals trade SS Seaver King to the Marlins, Marlins trade SS Otto Lopez and RHP Anthony Bender to the M's.

This one is a doozy... but it could make sense. Seaver King is in AAA and a top-50 prospect at SS in the sport after slashing .303/.382/.516/.898 between AA and AAA. He is blocked by CJ Abrams at SS so could be a trade candidate to add pitching that the Nationals very much need. King replaces Lopez in Miami. The Nationals get that pitching from the Mariners with 2x years of Kirby and they also add Arroyo who can slot in at 2B where they currently have a limp noodle in Nasim Nunez playing. The Mariners add Otto Lopez at SS while also offloading their 2026 2nd round pick Jake Brown to the Marlins who are light in OF prospects. RHP Anthony Bender who has had some injury issues but has also been stellar is also sent back to the M's.

One problem: apparently King also plays third and second, and both quite well. He's going to a National in 2027 no matter what. Now, they are talking about Abrams possibly being expendable so THAT could be worth exploring. Here's the thing though, any package headlined by Kirby isn't going to get it done. He's got a 2.1 WAR over the past two seasons in 53 starts. An average starting pitcher would have an WAR of about 3.0, so Kirby is below-average. You'd have to headline Gilbert or Woo (or hope maybe you can lucky with Hancock) to get that one done.

The Nationals need significant upgrades to their pitching staff. They could likely do that with Abrams... but they seem pretty set on keeping him. What other trade chips do they really have to add an arm?

Eli Willits, another SS, is their top prospect and a top-10 prospect in the sport. Next, they have a pitcher in Travis Syroka. Then it's King and a massive drop off prospect wise after Jarlin Susana spent '26 injured, only pitched 20 innings, and struggled.

And I'll bet my bottom dollar it's Kirby they trade and it's for a significant piece back.

Gerrit Cole had seasons of 1.5 and 2.6 bWAR before he was traded to Houston. We know Kirby's ceiling and so do other teams.

[Seattle or Bust]

OR - how about this - the Mariners finally get serious and make a Murakami kind of deal for 3B slugger Teruaki Sato. Why can't we give him a 2 year, $38MM deal? Would any of us think it would be money poorly spent if we got Murakami last year and he performed like he did for the White Sox? Even 7 ticks above the Mendoza, he still his 35 bombs and put up 2.3 WAR.

Sato is a triple crown winner in Japan, and last year he his for a 1.014 OPS

https://sodomojo.com/teruaki-sato-rumor ... se-slugger

We keep our starters and our prospects and get a solid bat to hold down 3B. Outbid the Dodgers or the Yankees or the Mets - just get serious for a change!!

He's left handed w. the bat.

The team is already heavily weighted with lefty bats... unless they trade off some and go get some righties, Sato isn't really a fit.

[DavidGee24]

I think they'd do their homework and understand he was trying to play through an injury that severely hurt his performance.

He had a .789 OPS in March/April. He had a 1.122 OPS in May.

That cratered to .398 in June where he missed time... and it continued in July to a .485 OPS because he went in for surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his forearm.

Maybe you're right... but I don't think any team looking at Raley is looking at the dip as anything more than the result of an injury.

Which makes it worse, they could and should see him as brittle. Let's put it this way: if Donovan had been a Cardinal in 2026 and only played 39 games after playing only 118 games in 2025, I don't think we'd be targeting him like we did last offseason.

Look, I'd love to see us nab an awesome player via trade, but if there's not a big salary being dumped involved, you have to give up value to get value as opposed to giving up there-might-be-value to get value.

[Seattle or Bust]

I think they'd do their homework and understand he was trying to play through an injury that severely hurt his performance.

He had a .789 OPS in March/April. He had a 1.122 OPS in May.

That cratered to .398 in June where he missed time... and it continued in July to a .485 OPS because he went in for surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his forearm.

Maybe you're right... but I don't think any team looking at Raley is looking at the dip as anything more than the result of an injury.

Which makes it worse, they could and should see him as brittle. Let's put it this way: if Donovan had been a Cardinal in 2026 and only played 39 games after playing only 118 games in 2025, I don't think we'd be targeting him like we did last offseason.

Look, I'd love to see us nab an awesome player via trade, but if there's not a big salary being dumped involved, you have to give up value to get value as opposed to giving up there-might-be-value to get value.

Sure, but they also traded Cjintje and Tai Peete for Donovan. That's a significantly different return.

And Raley has a history of solid play when he's healthy.

Encarnacion-Strand was DFA'd, traded, and then played 61 games in the minors before he was called up due to injuries around the Orioles infield.

We're not talking about trading for a serious piece here. He's a flier who showed some decent stuff over a very small sample.

[D-train]

Fellas - I love the idea of Otto, but there is zero chance of it happening no matter how much we close our eye and will it to happen.

I think a better, more solvent alternative is to get Zach Neto. The Angels have new ownership, and they are set to tear it down and undo all of Arte Moreno's tomfuckery. They will need a couple of seasons at least to get up to speed. They may be willing to take an Emerson Hancock as well as a couple of prospects. The asking price would be much lower than Otto, and the Angels - unlike the Marlins - are not in a window of contention.

Neto set the Angels single-season home run record for a shortstop and joined elite AL shortstops with multiple 20-HR/20-SB seasons. He is a stud defensively, and he hits the ball HARD offensively, and he has speed on the basepaths. I am not sure why we are all so set on Otto when there are other guys who might be more get-able and are pretty much as good.

D-Train - you have access to MLBTV. What would be fair asking prices for these 2 guys? Am I off, here?

I'm at Winco right now. LOL I will run it when I get home.