SOB's Real Off-Season Plan

[DavidGee24]

I think an issue with Raley as a trade chip is that he's likely to get non-tendered and teams know that, so why trade for him?

His number is like $2.5M.

I'm not sure why you wouldn't take a flier on tendering him unless you're convinced he can't be healthy.

He was an All Star the first 2x months of the season.

And the rest of the time he was like a monkey trying to hump a baseball. Add it all together and you have a guy who over a full season costs you two games in the standings (based on bWAR, anyway) in relation to an average player. And this is a guy who's put in a position to succeed platoon-wise. I like Raley too, but you have to look at the overall sum of his performance and can't dismiss injuries as fluky when they keep happening.

[Seattle or Bust]

I think an issue with Raley as a trade chip is that he's likely to get non-tendered and teams know that, so why trade for him?

His number is like $2.5M.

I'm not sure why you wouldn't take a flier on tendering him unless you're convinced he can't be healthy.

He was an All Star the first 2x months of the season.

And the rest of the time he was like a monkey trying to hump a baseball. Add it all together and you have a guy who over a full season costs you two games in the standings (based on bWAR, anyway) in relation to an average player. And this is a guy who's put in a position to succeed platoon-wise. I like Raley too, but you have to look at the overall sum of his performance and can't dismiss injuries as fluky when they keep happening.

I'm not sure what Raley was supposed to do about a flexor tear in his forearm. He was very successful when he wasn't hurt. Teams will surely realize that.

Again, $2.5M for a guy who was 6th in wRC+ through May before he got hurt is an absolute bargain.

And for what seems like the millionth time now... I'm not treating him as some massive trade chip. He's simply a piece a team like the Orioles could take a flier on given their need in the outfield while trading a guy who doesn't have a real spot on their roster.

[D-train]

Not a big deal but no idea where you are getting $2.5M from.

Screenshot 2026-10-10 101956.png (105.63 KiB) Viewed 133 times

[Seattle or Bust]

Not a big deal but no idea where you are getting $2.5M from.

Screenshot 2026-10-10 101956.png

I had heard $2.5... but regardless, the point still stands.

Teams take fliers at those rates all the time.

Hell, the White Sox picked up Luis Robert's option at $20M last year and even found a trade partner in the Mets despite his massive $ and injury history.

We're talking $3M... for a guy who has put up 3+ WAR seasons in recent years and was well on pace before the injury.

[D-train]

Not a big deal but no idea where you are getting $2.5M from.

Screenshot 2026-10-10 101956.png

I had heard $2.5... but regardless, the point still stands.

Teams take fliers at those rates all the time.

Hell, the White Sox picked up Luis Robert's option at $20M last year and even found a trade partner in the Mets despite his massive $ and injury history.

We're talking $3M... for a guy who has put up 3+ WAR seasons in recent years and was well on pace before the injury.

Agree. So what team gives Kelenic a NRI this offseason?? Cross off the M's, Braves, White Sox, Rangers and Yankees....

[Pharmabro]

Great plan! I am now convinced that the Marlins would move Otto but agree with Gabe that two years of Arb 2 and 3 Kirby isn't what they are going to be looking for.

The other monkey wrench is Jerry deciding the his $100M former top 5 prospect is now no longer a SS but a platoon bat at 3B which puts his ceiling at about 1.5 WAR given our best hope for his bat is Cole Youngs high 600s OPS in 2027. That contract is going to look more and more fucking idiotic over time. Not Evan White bad but close...

I’ve always hated those early contracts. There was just no need just take the 6-7 years of club control and if after 3-4-5 good years you want to extend them you can. But make sure they are an MLB guy before you sign them.

[Pharmabro]

Trades:

**Revision - 3-team trade**

M's trade RHP George Kirby, OF/2B Michael Arroyo to the Nationals and OF Jake Brown to the Marlins, Nationals trade SS Seaver King to the Marlins, Marlins trade SS Otto Lopez and RHP Anthony Bender to the M's.

This one is a doozy... but it could make sense. Seaver King is in AAA and a top-50 prospect at SS in the sport after slashing .303/.382/.516/.898 between AA and AAA. He is blocked by CJ Abrams at SS so could be a trade candidate to add pitching that the Nationals very much need. King replaces Lopez in Miami. The Nationals get that pitching from the Mariners with 2x years of Kirby and they also add Arroyo who can slot in at 2B where they currently have a limp noodle in Nasim Nunez playing. The Mariners add Otto Lopez at SS while also offloading their 2026 2nd round pick Jake Brown to the Marlins who are light in OF prospects. RHP Anthony Bender who has had some injury issues but has also been stellar is also sent back to the M's.

M's trade OF Luke Raley, RHP Logan Evans to the Orioles for 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand

This would be an interesting under-the-radar trade... Encarnacion-Strand only appeared in 58 games for the Orioles this year... but he did so mostly at 3B. He put up 1.7 fWAR in that small sample slashing .277/.325/.445/.770 with 11 HR's. The kicker is he slashed for a 1.009 OPS vs lefties, making him the perfect platoon partner for both Emerson and Naylor as he plays both 3B and 1B. He was also quite good defensively in '26. Why would the Orioles move him? Well, they started 2x other players at 3B in Coby Mayo and Blaze Alexander. They've invested in Mayo as a former top-10 prospect in the sport and Blaze Alexander gives them more defensive versatility. The Orioles outfield was a complete mess in '26 so Raley helps there. Evans gives them a young, controlled arm they can slot into what continues to be a mediocre to bad rotation.

M's trade SS Felnin Celesten, C Luke Stevenson, RHP Eduard Bazardo to the Dodgers for OF Mike Sirota, RHP Aiden Foeller

Prospects for prospect trade you say? Yup. The Dodgers are absolutely loaded with OF prospects... 4 in their top 6... 3 of their top 3. They lack middle infield prospects and a catching prospect in their farm. So... the M's trade them exactly that for OF prospect Mike Sirota. The 23-year-old RH bat slashed .307/.461/.526/.987 with 17 homers across 108 games in the minors in '26. In '25 he slashed 1.068 over 59 games. He could ride a hot Spring Training to an early debut in '27... potentially answering the M's issue with not having a true, future RH outfielder with can play solid defense in the mix. Foeller is a top-20 prospect in the Dodgers org in AA and can touch 100. The Dodgers also need right-handed bullpen help.

Free Agents:

M's sign RHP David Bednar to a 3-year $45M deal

Bednar has been stellar... pitching to a sub 2.61 ERA every year of his career aside from 2024. He's 31 so he likely won't get more than like a Adrian Morejon... but the M's make a rare bullpen investment.

M's sign OF Tyrone Taylor to a 1-year $6M deal

Taylor is a bit of a journeyman who had a really nice '26 slashing .279/.325/.502/.827 with the Mets and Cubs. He absolutely mashed lefties to the tune of a .921 OPS. He was also a solid defender with the versatility to play every OF position. He could platoon with Laz and also play all over the OF when guys need a day off.

M's sign Util IF Isiah Kiner-Felefa to a 1-year $5M deal

Felefa is a defensive genius who put up 1.1 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR in just 66 games despite putting up only an 80 wRC+ with the bat. He's the perfect insurance for a team whose defensive replacements were HORRID in '26 around the infield.

Lineup:

1. Brendan Donovan DH
2. Otto Lopez SS
3. Dom Canzone RF
4. Julio Rodriguez CF
5. Cal Raleigh C
6. Josh Naylor 1B
7. Tyrone Taylor/Laz Montez (Sirota?) LF
8. Colt Emerson/ Christian Encarnacion-Strand 3B
9. Cole Young 2B

Bench: Jonny Pereda C, Isiah Kiner-Felefa SS

Staff:

1. Logan Gilbert
2. Bryan Woo
3. Emerson Hancock
4. Bryce Miller
5. Kade Anderson

Bullpen:

CL: Andres Munoz
HL: David Bednar, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier, Anthony Bender
ML: Jose Ferrer, Seranthony Dominguez

You might look at this and think there's not much money on this roster... you'd be right considering the M's offloaded Castillo, Randy, and Kirby's money...

But the final deal?

M's sign RHP Logan Gilbert to a 7-year $200M extension... buying out the last year of his rookie deal and paying him $28.5M a year until age 36.

Good plan. I don’t think I have the time to make my own but I will read all yours.