2026-27 Hot Stove Thread

[harmony]

Most drafts of my offseason plan have the Mariners trading right-hander Emerson Hancock to the Brewers for infielder Joey Ortiz.

However, Baseball Trade Values outright rejects the trade proposal, giving Hancock only $16.1 million in surplus value and Ortiz $36.7 million in surplus value.

Under the expiring CBA, Hancock comes with four years of team control and Ortiz with three years of team control (and a projected 2027 salary of $2.4 million). Hancock is 10 months younger than Ortiz.

This year Hancock posted 2.7 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR and an ERA+ of 110 in 25 starts covering 138.2 innings. On the strength of his stellar defense, Ortiz posted 2.6 bWAR, 2.9 fWAR and an OPS+ of 101 in 415 plate appearances over 134 games.

In 2027 projections, FanGraphs and Steamer give Hancock 1.3 WAR in 36 games, including 26 starts, over 154 innings. FanGraphs gives Ortiz 1.5 WAR in 378 plate appearances over 87 games while Steamer gives Ortiz 1.4 WAR in 327 plate appearances over 86 games.

The difference in team control should compensate for any statistical edge Ortiz might have.

Would the Brewers find Ortiz expendable? Infielder Jesus Made, the top-ranked prospect at MLB Pipeline, is expected to make his Milwaukee debut in 2027 while the Brewers also have the 19th-ranked overall prospect in infielder Luis Pena.

Hancock fits the mold of starters Quinn Priester and Kyle Harrison, former top prospects who stumbled out of the blocks before finding success in Milwaukee.

Thoughts?

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/joey- ... ts/batting

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/emers ... s/pitching

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/top1 ... c917a46060

[bpj]

Well, we needed offense last year, but at least Cole Young won the Gold Glove...

Lot of good it did us...

[Big_Maple]

Thoughts?

Good case, and the extra year of control really is the strongest part of it. My hang-up isn't the value so much as what Seattle needs.

The Mariners were 28th in scoring, and Ortiz's bat is about average (101 OPS+, per your numbers). Most of his value is the glove. That helps with Crawford gone and Emerson coming off wrist surgery, but it doesn't fix the offense. Meanwhile Hancock is cheap, controlled for four years and one of the few starters Seattle could count on as its fifth arm, which is hard to replace for the price.

On Milwaukee's side, Made and Peña arriving makes Ortiz more movable, but a contender might not want to trade a glove-first infielder for a starter with a 110 ERA+. I'd also keep in mind that Baseball Trade Values sees a $20M gap, so I'd expect Milwaukee to ask for more than Hancock straight up.

Would you do it if Seattle had to add a mid-level prospect, or would you rather spend that prospect on a bat?

[AT Fresno]

Well, we needed offense last year, but at least Cole Young won the Gold Glove...

Lot of good it did us...

I hate our entire left hand infield. Two trades to reshape the MarinersKirby to the Rangers for Jung
Seattle sends controllable starter George Kirby to Texas for third baseman Josh Jung. Kirby is a high-upside arm, but the Mariners already have rotation depth. Jung supplies the right-handed power and solid defense they lack at the hot corner, with years of control remaining after recovering from hand injuries. Texas fills a rotation need; Seattle gets an everyday corner bat without touching shortstop or overpaying in free agency.Young to the Yankees for Headrick plus a prospect
Cole Young goes to New York for left-handed reliever Brent Headrick and a lower-level prospect. Young is a Gold Glove finalist (16 DRS, .990 fielding percentage) who hit 17 home runs and posted 4.4 WAR at age 23. With Michael Arroyo ready for second base, he becomes the cleanest trade chip. The Yankees, facing life without Jazz Chisholm Jr., get an immediate everyday defender with years of control. Seattle adds the exact high-leverage arm it needs—Headrick posted a 2.18 ERA, 2.46 FIP, and 29 holds over 78.1 innings in 2026—while clearing the path for Arroyo and keeping the infield more right-handed. Together the deals address thi

[harmony]

This year the Mariners finished fifth in the American League with a wRC+ of 102, not far behind the Astros' league-leading wRC+ of 105:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... &pagenum=1

The number came in a down year after the Mariners ranked second in the league with a wRC+ of 114 from August 15, 2024, through the end of the 2025 season (just behind the Yankees' league-leading wRC+ of 115*):

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... 2025-11-01

The Mariners hope for offensive rebounds from Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and Josh Naylor**. Raleigh won't repeat his 2025 season but should be closer to his three-season OPS+ of 117 in 2022-24 than to his 91 OPS+ of this year. Rodriguez should be closer to the four-season OPS+ of 129 in 2022-25 than to the 103 OPS+ he posted this year. Naylor should be closer to the four-season OPS+ of 125 in 2022-25 than to the his 93 OPS+ of this year.

The Mariners should expect an offensive breakout from at least one of Michael Arroyo, Lazaro Montes and Colt Emerson.

In short, offensive upgrades should not top the Mariners' offseason priorities. The M's should concentrate on improving a defense that finished last in many defensive metrics, sabotaging an otherwise promising pitching staff:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... e=&month=0

* while the Mariners' wRC+ dropped dropped from 114 to 102, the Yankees' wRC+ dropped from 115 to 101
** as well as defensive rebounds from Raleigh and Rodriguez

[harmony]

Well, we needed offense last year, but at least Cole Young won the Gold Glove...

Lot of good it did us...

I hate our entire left hand infield. Two trades to reshape the MarinersKirby to the Rangers for Jung
Seattle sends controllable starter George Kirby to Texas for third baseman Josh Jung. Kirby is a high-upside arm, but the Mariners already have rotation depth. Jung supplies the right-handed power and solid defense they lack at the hot corner, with years of control remaining after recovering from hand injuries. Texas fills a rotation need; Seattle gets an everyday corner bat without touching shortstop or overpaying in free agency.

According to FanGraphs and The Fielding Bible, this year Josh Jung ranked 177th of 178 third basemen with a negative 12 Defensive Runs Saved:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/josh- ... d-fielding

https://www.fieldingbible.com/drs-leade ... position=5

[harmony]

Thoughts?

Good case, and the extra year of control really is the strongest part of it. My hang-up isn't the value so much as what Seattle needs.

The Mariners were 28th in scoring, and Ortiz's bat is about average (101 OPS+, per your numbers). Most of his value is the glove. That helps with Crawford gone and Emerson coming off wrist surgery, but it doesn't fix the offense. Meanwhile Hancock is cheap, controlled for four years and one of the few starters Seattle could count on as its fifth arm, which is hard to replace for the price.

On Milwaukee's side, Made and Peña arriving makes Ortiz more movable, but a contender might not want to trade a glove-first infielder for a starter with a 110 ERA+. I'd also keep in mind that Baseball Trade Values sees a $20M gap, so I'd expect Milwaukee to ask for more than Hancock straight up.

Would you do it if Seattle had to add a mid-level prospect, or would you rather spend that prospect on a bat?

Trade values bounce around at Baseball Trade Values.

BTV had Joey Ortiz at $14.7 million in surplus value on June 23 and Emerson Hancock with $25.5 million in surplus value on July 24.