2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

[bpj]

If anyone happens to be driving a bus anywhere near the M's offices and Mallex Is crossing the street, I'll contribute to your defense fund!

I think a good case could be made that he was a BLM rioter blocking the road given his involvement in the Mariners coordinated grandstanding movement to conform.

I don't condone violence of any kind aside from a gentlemanly boxing match however. Which, I'd be happy to fight Mallex just for having to put up with him for so long.

[ddraig]

On the other hand, should anyone see Dee Strange-Gordon in the same area.....

[D-train]

Considering Liam Hendricks. No idea why but I just think these relievers that come out of nowhere and are great for a couple years around their age 30 season always seem to fall off the face of the earth very quickly. That being said I can't believe the author would be happy paying a mediocre reliever just to save money after the team has saved well over $100M in salary the past two seasons.

https://sodomojo.com/2020/11/13/seattle ... -hendriks/

[harmony]

FWIW, I posted my offseason plan over at Lookout Landing:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/11/ ... eason-plan

[Petert]

Considering Liam Hendricks. No idea why but I just think these relievers that come out of nowhere and are great for a couple years around their age 30 season always seem to fall off the face of the earth very quickly. That being said I can't believe the author would be happy paying a mediocre reliever just to save money after the team has saved well over $100M in salary the past two seasons.

https://sodomojo.com/2020/11/13/seattle ... -hendriks/

I would agree with this. But these are the guys that tend to be the more available, since they are, essentially', a calculated risk. If Liam Hendricks turned into the next Lee Smith or Trevor Hoffman, not only would you and I be surprised, but every scout and GM in MLB, as well. It's also interesting to look at it from the perspective of 'starter' vs. reliever, with regard to consistency. I feek there have been, historically speaking, more starters who will hover in the .515 - .545 win percentage over longer periods of say, an 8+ year career, and as such be productive, if not outright valued roster members, then there are relievers who could be considered as consistent over a similar period of their careers.

[rockycola]

FWIW, I posted my offseason plan over at Lookout Landing:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/11/ ... eason-plan

Literary Genius and a workable plan, harmony.

Chris Archer, Taijuan? I'd like to see that; see if Archer can regroup and perform to his immense talent. Kolten Wong would be a solid pick-up but would love to see if Moore keeps going with his development here.

[D-train]

FWIW, I posted my offseason plan over at Lookout Landing:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/11/ ... eason-plan

Clearly a well thought out plan but I don't see how it improves the team:

SP Joe Musgrove (two years of team control with projected 2021 salary of about $4 million) Career ERA of 4.33 is ok but nothing exciting
OF Gregory Polanco (one year and $14.6 million remaining on contract, including $3 million buyout of 2022 option). A .153 BA/.539 OPS
RP Richard Rodriguez (three years of team control with projected 2021 salary of about $1.3 million) Ok this guy had a good season but was bad in 2019. Could probably just trade Connor Phillips or Aaron Fletcher or Marge for him or some other prospect outside our top 10.

Many Seattle fans are clamoring for the Mariners to sign top free agents. My modest plan instead targets free agents ranked No. 23, No. 25, No. 28 and No. 50 on the list at MLB Trade Rumors:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/ ... -2021.html

With rough contract estimates:

2B Kolten Wong: two years, $16 million .675 OPS. You just downgraded your second baseman got older and paid $15M to do it.
SP Taijuan Walker: two years, $16 million Sure. This would be fine
RP Trevor May: two years, $14 million I don't get the love for this guy we have minimum wage guys that would like be about as good.
RP Jake McGee: two years, $8 million another guy that was really good in the short 2020 but bad in 2018-19. I fear regression.
RP Keone Kela: two years, $8 million Sure. Totally on board with this.
SP Chris Archer: one year, $4 million He has got worse every year since 2015. Seems dumpster divey. I would just go with Marge or LJ before him.
1B/3B/DH Jake Lamb to minor league contract I guess since its a minor league deal but what's the point. He's 30 and hasn't been good in years.

[harmony]

FWIW, I posted my offseason plan over at Lookout Landing:

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/11/ ... eason-plan

Clearly a well thought out plan but I don't see how it improves the team:

SP Joe Musgrove (two years of team control with projected 2021 salary of about $4 million) Career ERA of 4.33 is ok but nothing exciting
OF Gregory Polanco (one year and $14.6 million remaining on contract, including $3 million buyout of 2022 option). A .153 BA/.539 OPS
RP Richard Rodriguez (three years of team control with projected 2021 salary of about $1.3 million) Ok this guy had a good season but was bad in 2019. Could probably just trade Connor Phillips or Aaron Fletcher or Marge for him or some other prospect outside our top 10.

Many Seattle fans are clamoring for the Mariners to sign top free agents. My modest plan instead targets free agents ranked No. 23, No. 25, No. 28 and No. 50 on the list at MLB Trade Rumors:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/ ... -2021.html

With rough contract estimates:

2B Kolten Wong: two years, $16 million .675 OPS. You just downgraded your second baseman got older and paid $15M to do it.
SP Taijuan Walker: two years, $16 million Sure. This would be fine
RP Trevor May: two years, $14 million I don't get the love for this guy we have minimum wage guys that would like be about as good.
RP Jake McGee: two years, $8 million another guy that was really good in the short 2020 but bad in 2018-19. I fear regression.
RP Keone Kela: two years, $8 million Sure. Totally on board with this.
SP Chris Archer: one year, $4 million He has got worse every year since 2015. Seems dumpster divey. I would just go with Marge or LJ before him.
1B/3B/DH Jake Lamb to minor league contract I guess since its a minor league deal but what's the point. He's 30 and hasn't been good in years.

ZiPS projects 2021 and 2002 WAR of 2.3 and 2.1 in 136 and 133 games for Kolton Wong, 0.0 and 0.1 in 74 and 81 games for Dylan Moore and 0.3 and 0.6 in 107 and 107 games for Shed Long. We should all celebrate Moore's breakout season of 38 games but keep the 28-year-old's performance in perspective.

Bringing in four new relievers will likely result in two of them bombing ... but that's the volatile nature of relievers.

I'm now leaning toward Justin Wilson over Jake McGee as a lefthanded reliever (but Wilson might be the more expensive free agent).

[D-train]

I know you love Zips but I wonder what Chris Taylor's Zips projection was going into the 2017 season after playing 120 games with a .598 OPS. I am sure JD was totally fine trading him until he put up that .850 OPS the following season. Interestingly, the Dodgers choose not to trade him after that breakout and he is now a WS champion contributing 1.8 WAR in the short season.

Moore had a .885 OPS in his last year in the minors, almost a .700 OPS as a rookie and a .855 OPS this past season. He completely changed his approach and I think it will be sustainable so the Zips projection means nothing to me. Sorry, not trading him for that return, especially Palanco. I also don't understand why we need to be cheap. I would prefer taking all that money spent on mediocre and but a couple impact players like Brantley and Bauer.

[bpj]

Well I for one really like the Pirates package we would be getting.

I wouldn't part with Moore to do it.

I think a package of Luis Torrens (or Cal Raleigh) and Taylor Trammell- who is an odd man out in Seattles future- would be a good start to a package.

Musgrove may be the most underrated pitcher in MLB right now in my opinion. He should have two great years ahead imo.

My other pitching target would be a Buy Low on Matthew Boyd.