2020-2021 Hot Stove Thread

[harmony]

MLB Trade Rumors discussed the future of Texas outfielder Joey Gallo:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/ ... l#comments

Would anyone trade a combined 12 years of team control in outfielder Taylor Trammell and righthander Sam Carlson for two years of Gallo and one year of the underwater contract of Jordan Lyles?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-33618/

In keeping the seat warm for top outfield prospects, the 27-year-old Gallo would offer lefthanded power bat while providing insurance against the suspect return of Mitch Haniger. The 30-year-old Lyles would provide a righthanded innings-eater until the arrivals of top pitching prospects.

Lyles won me over in 2019 after I attended this gem days after the righthander was added to my fantasy team:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxe ... 5170.shtml

I would do Trammel for Gallo but that's it.

That's a no-brainer from the Mariners' perspective but the Rangers would likely field better offers.

[D-train]

Not a big Trammell fan but two years of a guy that hit .181/.679 for about $15M vs. 6 years of a guy that was once rated as high as #11 prospect in baseball and is still a top 70 prospect. I don't think they get much better than that if at all.

[D-train]

Amazing that Gallo is so good defensively given his size.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

I wouldn't trade those two- especially Carlson- for Gallo when there are options available without subtracting talent.

Nothing wrong with examining Gallo as a trade target, but that's a steep price to pay.

Sam Carlson may have a high ceiling but the righthander is a 22-year-old whose college and professional experience is limited to three innings in the Arizona Rookie League in 2017:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... d=d377f88c

Perhaps a high reward but a high risk as well.

Returning their top three starters with multiple years of team control, the Mariners at some point may trade from their pitching prospect depth as Carlson currently ranks eighth among the club's pitching prospects at MLB Pipeline:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mariners/

Sam Carlson is a workhorse and My pick to click out of all the pitching prospects we have.... I will eat crow if he flames out, but he is healthy and ready

[D-train]

I wouldn't trade those two- especially Carlson- for Gallo when there are options available without subtracting talent.

Nothing wrong with examining Gallo as a trade target, but that's a steep price to pay.

Sam Carlson may have a high ceiling but the righthander is a 22-year-old whose college and professional experience is limited to three innings in the Arizona Rookie League in 2017:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... d=d377f88c

Perhaps a high reward but a high risk as well.

Returning their top three starters with multiple years of team control, the Mariners at some point may trade from their pitching prospect depth as Carlson currently ranks eighth among the club's pitching prospects at MLB Pipeline:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mariners/

Sam Carlson is a workhorse and My pick to click out of all the pitching prospects we have.... I will eat crow if he flames out, but he is healthy and ready

Yep, I am not trading any SP Studs until a few actually pan out in the Bigs.

[harmony]

Not a big Trammell fan but two years of a guy that hit .181/.679 for about $15M vs. 6 years of a guy that was once rated as high as #11 prospect in baseball and is still a top 70 prospect. I don't think they get much better than that if at all.

Joey Gallo is a reigning Gold Glover who posted a .389 on-base percentage in his 2019 All Star season after hitting at least 40 home runs in each of the two previous seasons.

Gallo's high strikeout rate is offset by his projected OBP of .362 (ZiPS), .329 (Steamer) and .333 (Marcel).

As a point of reference, Mitch Haniger, who is three years older with the same two years of team control, has projected OBP of .343 (ZiPS), .326 (Steamer) and .338 (Marcel).

Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus values of $26.4 million to Gallo, $22.8 million to Haniger and $15.3 millon to Taylor Trammell.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/478/

[D-train]

There’s a case to be made, however, that Texas should approach the Gallo situation more proactively. That could mean him following Lynn and Montero out the door. Texas has made Gallo available to other teams, but it might not be the best time to try to work out a deal. After all, he struggled to a .181/.301/.378 line in 226 plate appearances this past season. An unsustainably low .240 BABIP no doubt played a role in that, but his struggles can’t all be chalked up to bad luck.

Gallo’s already-high average launch angle increased by more than four degrees between 2019 and 2020. For many players, that’d be a positive development. Gallo, however, already had an extremely uphill swing path. Hitting the ball higher in the air last season didn’t do him any favors. Gallo’s batting average on airborne contact (fly balls and line drives) dropped from .556 in 2019 to .350 last season. His slugging output had an even more precipitous fall. Making matters worse, Gallo’s average exit velocity fell more than three miles per hour from where it had been in 2018-19.

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[D-train]

Not a big Trammell fan but two years of a guy that hit .181/.679 for about $15M vs. 6 years of a guy that was once rated as high as #11 prospect in baseball and is still a top 70 prospect. I don't think they get much better than that if at all.

Joey Gallo is a reigning Gold Glover who posted a .389 on-base percentage in his 2019 All Star season after hitting at least 40 home runs in each of the two previous seasons.

Gallo's high strikeout rate is offset by his projected OBP of .362 (ZiPS), .329 (Steamer) and .333 (Marcel).

As a point of reference, Mitch Haniger, who is three years older with the same two years of team control, has projected OBP of .343 (ZiPS), .326 (Steamer) and .338 (Marcel).

Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus values of $26.4 million to Gallo, $22.8 million to Haniger and $15.3 millon to Taylor Trammell.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/478/

I know you love the projections and the trade values but when a GM trades a top 100 prospect for Gallo he will have to explain why he just traded a guy a lot of people think is going to be good and will cost next to nothing for several years for a guy that hit .181 in 2020 and sending them links to those sites probably isn't going to cut it.

[harmony]

Not a big Trammell fan but two years of a guy that hit .181/.679 for about $15M vs. 6 years of a guy that was once rated as high as #11 prospect in baseball and is still a top 70 prospect. I don't think they get much better than that if at all.

Joey Gallo is a reigning Gold Glover who posted a .389 on-base percentage in his 2019 All Star season after hitting at least 40 home runs in each of the two previous seasons.

Gallo's high strikeout rate is offset by his projected OBP of .362 (ZiPS), .329 (Steamer) and .333 (Marcel).

As a point of reference, Mitch Haniger, who is three years older with the same two years of team control, has projected OBP of .343 (ZiPS), .326 (Steamer) and .338 (Marcel).

Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus values of $26.4 million to Gallo, $22.8 million to Haniger and $15.3 millon to Taylor Trammell.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/478/

I know you love the projections and the trade values but when a GM trades a top 100 prospect for Gallo he will have to explain why he just traded a guy a lot of people think is going to be good and will cost next to nothing for several years for a guy that hit .181 in 2020 and sending them links to those sites probably isn't going to cut it.

Cherry-picking a .181 batting average in shortened season "isn't going to cut it" in negotiations (neither will citing Taylor Trammell's .234 batting average in 126 games at Double A in 2019). Valuation can be complicated:

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/ ... all-teams/

Steamer projects Trammell with a 2021 WAR of a negative 0.1 in 49 games and ZiPS a 2021 WAR of a negative 0.6 in 121 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/taylo ... osition=OF

Between 2019 and 2020 Trammell dropped at least 40 slots in the prospect rankings at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus.

[D-train]

Hey I am not a Trammel fan and I would be happy with the trade. I just don't think they will get a top 50 prospect for Joey Gallo. We shall see.