Should not be afraid to drain the farm.

harmony
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Re: Should not be afraid to drain the farm.

Post by harmony » Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:43 am

Max Kepler and Wil Myers could provide insurance against another underperformance from Jarred Kelenic. A lineup with Steamer's 2023 wRC+ projections (all above 100):

2B Kolten Wong L 109
CF Julio Rodriguez R 142
DH Teoscar Hernandez R 120
C Cal Raleigh S 114
3B Eugenio Suarez R 107
RF Max Kepler L 109
1B Ty France R 130
SS J.P. Crawford L 109
LF Wil Myers R 104 / Jarred Kelenic L 106

The modest lineup could keep the line moving but the additions of Kepler and Myers are more about run prevention than run production.

On a trivial side note, in his age 24 season Cal Raleigh posted an OPS+ of 48 in 148 plate appearances while Jarred Kelenic in his age 22 season posted an OPS+ of 51 in 181 plate appearances. Who knows what the future holds?

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bpj
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Re: Should not be afraid to drain the farm.

Post by bpj » Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:03 am

Problem is, then Kelenic had another season too.

And now they each have ~560 plate appearances.

Raleigh: .708 OPS / 101 wRC+
Kelenic: .589 / 68 wRC+

Kepler would be a huge disappointment when there are 10+ better bats on the market. We don't need defense.

Nobody cares if they keep hoping for Kelenic to become something. But it shouldnt be at the MLB level in a season that they're obvious contenders when he has options remaining and there are plenty of good bats still available.
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harmony
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Re: Should not be afraid to drain the farm.

Post by harmony » Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:55 am

bpj wrote:
Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:03 am
Problem is, then Kelenic had another season too.

And now they each have ~560 plate appearances.

Raleigh: .708 OPS / 101 wRC+
Kelenic: .589 / 68 wRC+

Kepler would be a huge disappointment when there are 10+ better bats on the market. We don't need defense.

Nobody cares if they keep hoping for Kelenic to become something. But it shouldnt be at the MLB level in a season that they're obvious contenders when he has options remaining and there are plenty of good bats still available.
Instead of Max Kepler with his projected wRC+ of 109, the Mariners could pursue a multiyear contract approaching nine figures for Andrew Benintendi, whom Steamer projects with a 2023 wRC+ of 113. Or shorter contract for the recently shelved Michael Conforto with his projected wRC+ of 117. Or an aging Michael Brantley with a projected wRC+ of 117. Or Trey Mancini at 107, J.D. Martinez at 109 or Jurickson Profar at 105.

Last offseason the Mariners brought in an outfielder coming off a 147 OPS+/.945 OPS season and an infielder coming off a .305/.368/.411/.779 season but Jesse Winker and Adam Frazier did not work out as hoped.

As the proposed lineup suggests, Jarred Kelenic is not a starter unless he earns his playing time.

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bpj
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Re: Should not be afraid to drain the farm.

Post by bpj » Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:40 am

Yep, out of that group it's either Brantley, Conforto, Myers or JD Martinez who would improve the lineup.

Benintendi isn't exciting at all and I wouldn't even think of giving him more than a year plus a vesting option.

Beyond that Trammell/Haggerty is a better option than the rest of the bums out there that would cost $8M or more and still be a crapshoot in T-Mobile.

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Re: Should not be afraid to drain the farm.

Post by ice99 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 4:52 am

The way the team is shaping up, maybe Haggerty starts in Tacoma. Consider the M's trading Kelenic in a package for Nootbaar.

Projected Steamer wRC+ listed.

2B Kolten Wong L 109
CF Julio Rodriguez R 142
1B Ty France R 130
LF Teoscar Hernandez R 120
RF Lars Nootbaar L 125
3B Eugenio Suarez R 107
C Cal Raleigh S 114
SS J.P. Crawford L 109
DH Cooper Hummel S 106 / Wil Myers R 104

3 remaining bench spots Dylan Moore R 97, Taylor Trammell L 101, Tom Murphy R 106

Sam Haggerty S 93

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Sexymarinersfan
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Re: Should not be afraid to drain the farm.

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:00 pm

How telling is it that the Yankees haven't swooped in to make sure Benintendi isn't going anywhere? He's not high on my list except for his defense. Dipoto will NOT spend on FA offense. Absolutely none! Only by acquiring it for "his" price will he obtain it. That is frustrating as hell.

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Re: Should not be afraid to drain the farm.

Post by D-train » Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:14 pm

bpj wrote:
Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:03 am
Problem is, then Kelenic had another season too.

And now they each have ~560 plate appearances.

Raleigh: .708 OPS / 101 wRC+
Kelenic: .589 / 68 wRC+

Kepler would be a huge disappointment when there are 10+ better bats on the market. We don't need defense.

Nobody cares if they keep hoping for Kelenic to become something. But it shouldnt be at the MLB level in a season that they're obvious contenders when he has options remaining and there are plenty of good bats still available.
Guessing you don't write for Sodomojo under the pen name Trevor Pedro? LOL
Pollock would provide the platoon partner the Mariners need to allow Jarred Kelenic to develop at the MLB level. One of the most critical points is Kelenic only has one remaining minor league option. Dipoto and General Manager Justin Hollander should do everything they can to preserve that option while setting the former top prospect up for success.
https://sodomojo.com/2022/12/13/mariner ... j-pollock/
dt

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