Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[Vogelbomb]

If they are to deal a starter, I'd deal Miller, and I'd go after either Tatis Jr (obviously would have to include someone like Ford, too) or after a Jackson Holiday, Gunnar Henderson, one or the other

[Pharmabro]

Actually surprising the Castillo is so close to the other two given the Massive difference in salaries. I think those two could eventually be as good as Castillo. As a 24-25 yo he put up a 3.89 ERA a 4.12 FIP and a 110 ERA+. Pretty good but not great.

I have been thinking about this as well. You trade away that big salary and you could bring back a bat. You go sign Yamamoto-Snell-Bauer. You then trade a prospect package for another bat and you then go sign a bat in F.A.

[Pharmabro]

Have a feeling they're holding out for Belly and JD

Bellinger, I don't know how much he will get. The MLBTR predicter says 12 for 264M. I am not in on him like he is one of the ARod-Trout-Judge level guys. He had a 133 OPS+ last year in a little over 100 games. I was thinking something more like the Josh Bell-Conforto family of deals. Something like 5 for 120M but with some opt. out for him and some performance/health language for the club.

JD would be a decent DH 2nd piece. Hoskins would be as well. I think JD might be able to be had for one or two years and 12 to 16M depending on years.
Let's see what that looks like.
1. JP*SS
2. Julio CF
3. Bellinger* OF
4. JD DH
5. France 1B
6. Cal** C
7. Urias 3B
8. Canzone* OF
9. Rojas* 2B
Bench: Moore, Haggerty, Seby Z, Best of (Marlow, TT, Deloach, etc)

I think that would look much better if we could trade for one of the Rays guys like Randy, Paredes, Yandy or better yet 2

[D-train]

Could the trade value of Luis Castillo go up depending on the contracts landed by this offseason's free agent starters?

Castillo is guaranteed $91 million over the next four seasons with a 2028 vesting option for another $25 million. The righthander has a full no-trade clause through 2025 with a $1 million assignment bonus thereafter.

Castillo was born the same month as current free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The projected contract for Snell ranges from five years, $122 million at The Athletic to seven years, $200 million at MLB Trade Rumors. Montgomery's projected contract ranges from five years, $127 million at The Athletic to six years, $150 million at MLB Trade Rumors.

Early offseason indications are that the projected free contracts have been on the conservative side (although Aaron Nola, who is six months younger than Castillo, came in near projections at seven years, $172 million).

Steamer projects 2024 WAR of 3.4 for Castillo, 3.3 for Snell and 3.2 for Montgomery (and 4.2 for Nola):

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?p ... pe=steamer

If the Mariners are operating as if they're financially strapped, the M's could offload Castillo's contract (with his consent) for low-cost pre-arb bat. The savings could be flipped in pursuit of a replacement starter because free agent pitchers reportedly find Seattle more attractive than free agent hitters.

Would anyone trade Luis Castillo back to Cincinnati for promising third baseman Noelvi Marte, who headed the package the Mariners sent in the July 2022 trade for Castillo? The Reds could use a top-of-rotation starter.

That would be interesting.

Yes, I proposed a Castillo for Soto trade in October I believe. Reds could use him but I thought the traded him because they couldn't afford him. Maybe their budget situation has gone in the opposite direction as ours.

Well, the Reds are no longer paying Joey Votto $25 million, Mike Moustakas $16 million and Mike Minor $10 million. The top salaries so far on the 2024 Cincinnati roster are the recently signed Jeimer Candelario at $15 million, Nick Martinez at $14 million and Emilio Pagan at $8 million.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/cincinnati-reds/payroll/

The young Reds probably view themselves as contenders in the NL Central.

Thanks. Yes, I wish I was a Reds fan.

[Big_Maple]

Here’s a doozy - this guy suggests bringing Jesse Winker back on a 1 year deal as the DH.

https://sodomojo.com/posts/any-jesse-wi ... hhr585k36b

I laughed till I peed. Then I laughed some more.

[D-train]

Saw that. Here is another. Not sure which is more ridiculous:

https://sodomojo.com/posts/mariners-in- ... hhyqncv8wx

[Big_Maple]

It is consistent, at least, with Jerry’s bargain basement, dumpster diving offseason philosophy.

It would not surprise me if we wound up with either - or both - of these has beens.

[D-train]

He was in my original off season plan. What a dope I was.

https://twitter.com/ChrisRoseSports/sta ... 4446342525

[D-train]

It is consistent, at least, with Jerry’s bargain basement, dumpster diving offseason philosophy.

It would not surprise me if we wound up with either - or both - of these has beens.

How absolutely bizarre was Carpenter's run with the Yankees. Don't think I have ever seen that in my life. Went from Suck to Amazing right back to suck.

[D-train]

I wouldn't hate this but feel like such a Buy High move. And he was terrible in 2021-22.