Luke Raley for Jose C

Post Reply
ice99
Posts: 3148
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 4:49 am

Re: Luke Raley for Jose C

Post by ice99 » Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:36 pm

I'm not going into the payroll minutiea since the payroll that they're being compared to, calculated the payroll a certain way. However, Cot's prorates their bonuses over the guaranteed years.

For M's players that are returning, I'm not recalculating. But Haniger had 2 guaranteed years, a $6M bonus that was paid when he was with SF. He has a player option for the 3rd year, but for Cot's purposes they only prorated over 2 years, and $3M was added for 2023 and 2024. So I'm saying the payroll is somewhere closer to $123M.

CubsTr.PNG

M's get: Merryweather

Cub's get: DeScalfani, Kuhn, Alberto Rodriguez, $5M cash

The M's save $6M.

This brings payroll to $117M.

Sign Snell for 4 yrs/$108M as follows

2024: $25M with $5M deferred to 12/2/2025
2025: $25M, can opt out after 2025 and receive $3.5M
2026: $25M, can opt out after 2026 and receive $5.5M
2027: $25M
Club option for 2028 @ $33M with $8M buyout
If $33M option exercised, then an option for $32M with $3M buyout for 2029 is vested.

Brings payroll to $137M for 2024.
Last edited by ice99 on Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

harmony
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 4:59 pm
Location: Portland OR

Re: Luke Raley for Jose C

Post by harmony » Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:38 pm

D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:54 pm
harmony wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:42 pm
Captain 97 wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:58 am


You left out Geno and Urias. I don't think that helps either of those categories. They still need a 3b in my opinion.
FWIW FanGraphs projects Eugenio Suarez with 2024 WAR and wRC+ of 1.7 and 99 in 146 games while projecting Luis Urias with 2024 WAR and wRC+ of 2.0 and 104 in 110 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/eugen ... osition=3B

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luis- ... n=2B/3B/SS

Of course last year Suarez posted 3.2 fWAR and a 102 wRC+ in 162 games.
And LU posted negative WAR.
Recency bias and a small sample are a bad combination. :D :D :D

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 76265
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Luke Raley for Jose C

Post by D-train » Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:39 pm

Yeah I am not confident in any of the payroll numbers. Your plan looks great. How did Merryweather get your attention. I had never heard of him
dt

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 76265
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Luke Raley for Jose C

Post by D-train » Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:43 pm

harmony wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:38 pm
D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:54 pm
harmony wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:42 pm

FWIW FanGraphs projects Eugenio Suarez with 2024 WAR and wRC+ of 1.7 and 99 in 146 games while projecting Luis Urias with 2024 WAR and wRC+ of 2.0 and 104 in 110 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/eugen ... osition=3B

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luis- ... n=2B/3B/SS

Of course last year Suarez posted 3.2 fWAR and a 102 wRC+ in 162 games.
And LU posted negative WAR.
Recency bias and a small sample are a bad combination. :D :D :D
Recency yes, 177 PAs isn't huge but not tiny either.
dt

ice99
Posts: 3148
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 4:49 am

Re: Luke Raley for Jose C

Post by ice99 » Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:43 pm

D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:39 pm
Yeah I am not confident in any of the payroll numbers. Your plan looks great. How did Merryweather get your attention. I had never heard of him
I went into the depth charts, that give wins projections and clicked on Cubs. I looked at their RP, and saw Merryweather, then looked his Fangraphs page up. He throws 98mph.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.a ... &teamid=17

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 76265
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Luke Raley for Jose C

Post by D-train » Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:48 pm

ice99 wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:43 pm
D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:39 pm
Yeah I am not confident in any of the payroll numbers. Your plan looks great. How did Merryweather get your attention. I had never heard of him
I went into the depth charts, that give wins projections and clicked on Cubs. I looked at their RP, and saw Merryweather, then looked his Fangraphs page up. He throws 98mph.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.a ... &teamid=17
Nice. Thanks.
dt

harmony
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 4:59 pm
Location: Portland OR

Re: Luke Raley for Jose C

Post by harmony » Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:09 am

D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:43 pm
harmony wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:38 pm
D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:54 pm


And LU posted negative WAR.
Recency bias and a small sample are a bad combination. :D :D :D
Recency yes, 177 PAs isn't huge but not tiny either.
Just under 11 percent of Luis Urias' 1,614 career plate appearances.

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 76265
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Luke Raley for Jose C

Post by D-train » Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:37 am

harmony wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:09 am
D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:43 pm
harmony wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:38 pm

Recency bias and a small sample are a bad combination. :D :D :D
Recency yes, 177 PAs isn't huge but not tiny either.
Just under 11 percent of Luis Urias' 1,614 career plate appearances.
Yeah hopefully it was the injuries, he certainly isn't getting old. lol
dt

User avatar
Sexymarinersfan
Posts: 8905
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 11:34 pm
Location: Ft. Worth Texas
Contact:

Re: Luke Raley for Jose C

Post by Sexymarinersfan » Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:03 am

Captain 97 wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:58 am
D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2024 9:39 pm
There are two ways to look at your fav team. Analytically and on a personal level (are they easy to root for and likeable)

I think they are a little better when looking at them analytically and better in terms of likability.

Out:
JK
Teo

In
Mitch
Raley
You left out Geno and Urias. I don't think that helps either of those categories. They still need a 3b in my opinion.
How close is Ryan Bliss? Rojas can play a little 3rd right?

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 76265
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Luke Raley for Jose C

Post by D-train » Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:57 am

Sexymarinersfan wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:03 am
Captain 97 wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:58 am
D-train wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2024 9:39 pm
There are two ways to look at your fav team. Analytically and on a personal level (are they easy to root for and likeable)

I think they are a little better when looking at them analytically and better in terms of likability.

Out:
JK
Teo

In
Mitch
Raley
You left out Geno and Urias. I don't think that helps either of those categories. They still need a 3b in my opinion.
How close is Ryan Bliss? Rojas can play a little 3rd right?
How close? A 30 mile 45 minute to and hour and a half drive depending on traffic. Will he be good? I would be surprised:
dt

Post Reply