Your 48-68 M's vs. 65-50 Rays Game Thread 8\9\19

[DavidGee24]

btw Seager is at 1.1 WAR after 60 games which projects to almost 3 WAR for a full season. That's over $20 MM in value.

I wouldn't quite go that far. Consider that the top salary is a little over 30 million and the top WAR will be 9-10. Then consider that an average player's WAR is about 1.8 and the average non-rookie contract salary is 7-8 million. On that scale, a 3 WAR is pretty close to being worth 10 million.

[DavidGee24]

Why'd he start trying to pull the ball anyways?

I wonder if a numbers of players get dispirited playing for a losing team and, like they do on bad NBA teams, just start playing for themselves, going up there and just taking big rips. That could be the case with Santana and I'm really wondering if that's the case with Maalox, who's constantly swinging from the heels and striking out way way WAY more often than he did for the Rays.

[D-train]

btw Seager is at 1.1 WAR after 60 games which projects to almost 3 WAR for a full season. That's over $20 MM in value.

I wouldn't quite go that far. Consider that the top salary is a little over 30 million and the top WAR will be 9-10. Then consider that an average player's WAR is about 1.8 and the average non-rookie contract salary is 7-8 million. On that scale, a 3 WAR is pretty close to being worth 10 million.

That is based on FA replacement value: See here is worth $9MM in just 60 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?p ... n=3B#value

[bpj]

Why'd he start trying to pull the ball anyways?

I wonder if a numbers of players get dispirited playing for a losing team and, like they do on bad NBA teams, just start playing for themselves, going up there and just taking big rips. That could be the case with Santana and I'm really wondering if that's the case with Maalox, who's constantly swinging from the heels and striking out way way WAY more often than he did for the Rays.

Mallex knows he can't slap it at the 5-6 hole and run like heck without the turf helping balls find a hole, he's had to adjust his game to try for more line drives and it's causing him to strike out more.

The two go hand in hand, imo.

[D-train]

Why'd he start trying to pull the ball anyways?

I wonder if a numbers of players get dispirited playing for a losing team and, like they do on bad NBA teams, just start playing for themselves, going up there and just taking big rips. That could be the case with Santana and I'm really wondering if that's the case with Maalox, who's constantly swinging from the heels and striking out way way WAY more often than he did for the Rays.

Mallex knows he can't slap it at the 5-6 hole and run like heck without the turf helping balls find a hole, he's had to adjust his game to try for more line drives and it's causing him to strike out more.

The two go hand in hand, imo.

So exciting that Mallex's bosom buddy Dee is back in the lineup. God I can't wait for those two to be gone.

[bpj]

Back to pushing guys like Santana to the bench to get these bums in the game. And for what.

[DavidGee24]

btw Seager is at 1.1 WAR after 60 games which projects to almost 3 WAR for a full season. That's over $20 MM in value.

I wouldn't quite go that far. Consider that the top salary is a little over 30 million and the top WAR will be 9-10. Then consider that an average player's WAR is about 1.8 and the average non-rookie contract salary is 7-8 million. On that scale, a 3 WAR is pretty close to being worth 10 million.

That is based on FA replacement value: See here is worth $9MM in just 60 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?p ... n=3B#value

Also remember though, that replacement is not average, replacement is way below average.

[D-train]

I wouldn't quite go that far. Consider that the top salary is a little over 30 million and the top WAR will be 9-10. Then consider that an average player's WAR is about 1.8 and the average non-rookie contract salary is 7-8 million. On that scale, a 3 WAR is pretty close to being worth 10 million.

That is based on FA replacement value: See here is worth $9MM in just 60 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?p ... n=3B#value

Also remember though, that replacement is not average, replacement is way below average.

It basically says a replacement player is worth $0, a 1WAR player is worth $8, 2 WAR player is with $16MM and so on. It does seem high to me as well since Trout is not getting close to $80MM for his 10 WAR. I think it should be diminishing returns with each additional WAR the cost per WAR falls slightly.

[DavidGee24]

Man, whoever came up with that must have devoted maybe a minute to it. Really lazy math.

WAR is graded on a curve so worth should be as well. Take the top of the pay scale/best WAR and prorate up from average payscale/average WAR to determine monetary worth, and then take the league minimum/worst WAR and prorate down from average payscale/average WAR to determine monetary worth.

By that scale, a 3 WAR player would be worth 12-13 million, a 6 WAR player 19-20 million, a 0 WAR player about 2-3 million, and Chris Davis should be paying the Orioles.

[bpj]

WAR is a good concept poorly executed.

They've extrapolated "value" from what basically just says this is what this players production could theoretically be bought for on the free agent market.

It's not averaging out the value of how much each players WAR cost.

Not saying that players production was worth $X, they're saying that replacing that production on the free agent market would cost $X.

It doesnt translate to how you guys are talking about it because every player isn't a free agent.

Mike Trout on a 1 year contract very well could cost and be worth $80 million.

But, instead, he chose a contract of $400M or so over however many years for security, etc.